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Econometric Analysis of Croatia’s Proclaimed Foreign Exchange Rate

100%
Mance D., Žiković S., Mance D.
South East European Journal of Economics and Business
|
2015
|
vol. 10
|
issue 1
7-17
EN
The officially proclaimed foreign exchange policy of the Croatian National Bank (CNB) is a managed float with a discretionary right of intervention on the Croatian kuna/euro foreign exchange (FX) market in order to maintain price stability. This paper examines the validity of three monetary policy hypotheses: the stability of the nominal exchange rate, the stability of exchange rate changes, and the exchange rate to inflation pass-through effect. The CNB claims a direct FX to inflation rate pass-through channel for which we find no evidence, but we find a strong link between FX rate changes and changes in M4, as well as between M4 changes and inflation. Changes in foreign investment Granger cause changes in monetary aggregates that further Granger cause inflation. Changes in FX rate Granger cause a reaction in M4 that indirectly Granger causes a further rise in inflation. Vector Autoregression Impulse Response Functions of changes in FX rate, M1, M4, and CPI confirm the Granger causalities in the established order.
2
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DILEMMA OF DOLLARIZATION OF THE UKRAINIAN ECONOMY UNDER CONDITIONS OF GLOBALIZATION: ANALYTICAL ISSUES

51%
Zykova O.
Kwartalnik Naukowy Uczelni Vistula
|
2017
|
issue 2(52)
40-60
EN
The author provides a comprehensive study of the features of transformation of dollarization in the context of globalisation. The theoretical and methodological bases of the study on the economic nature of dollarization are analysed, the evolution of conceptual approaches to the treatment of dollarization are investigated, the basic scientific approaches to the typology of dollarization under various classification criteria, with emphasis on the distinction between its forms and types, are systematised. A hypothesis on the modern dollarization as an objective evolutionary process due to the development of globalisation is enhanced in the thesis. The econometric analysis of the existence of equilibrium levels of financial dollarization in Ukraine was performed on the basis of hysteresis effects modelling using the multi-factor model of a long-term and short-term equilibrium level dynamics of deposit dollarization.
PL
Autor przedstawia wszechstronną analizę cech transformacji i dolaryzacji w kontekście globalizacji. Omówiono teoretyczne i metodologiczne podstawy analizy ekonomicznego charakteru dolaryzacji i zbadano ewolucję podejść koncepcyjnych do traktowania dolaryzacji oraz usystematyzowano podstawowe podejścia naukowe do typologii dolaryzacji z punktu widzenia różnych kryteriów klasyfikacji, z podkreśleniem rozróżnienia między jej formami i typami. W tezie tej rozbudowano hipotezę nowoczesnej dolaryzacji jako obiektywnego procesu ewolucyjnego w związku z rozwojem globalizacji. Przeprowadzono analizę ekonometryczną istnienia poziomów równowagi dolaryzacji finansowej na Ukrainie na podstawie modelowania efektów histerezy z zastosowaniem wieloczynnikowego modelu dynamiki poziomów długo- i krótkookresowej równowagi dolaryzacji depozytów.
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