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How to define macroeconomic announcement surprises? An example of the impact of US macroeconomic news on stock prices on the Warsaw Stock Exchange

100%
Wójtowicz T.
Managerial Economics
|
2022
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vol. 23
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issue 1
77-98
EN
The definition of a news surprise plays a crucial role in the analysis of the impact of unexpected macroeconomic news announcements. In this paper, we study the properties of the most commonly used measure of news surprise, defined as the difference between the announced and expected value of the indicator. Due to the high vulnerability of this measure to outliers, we consider alternative definitions of macroeconomic surprises. Based on the analysis of announcements of 15 American macroeconomic indicators, we show that taking into account the heterogeneity of analysts’ forecasts or the variability of the previous surprises, noticeably improves the properties of the distribution of surprise measures. An additional study performed with the use of a dynamic model proves a strong linear relationship between surprise measures and WIG20 returns in the first five minutes after news announcements.
2
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The reaction of the WSE to U.S. employment news announcements.

100%
Suliga M., Wójtowicz T.
Managerial Economics
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2013
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vol. 14
165-176
EN
Stock markets react to various information. One of the most important information concerns macroeconomic data because it describes the state of the economy. The U.S. is the world’s largest economy and thus American macroeconomic news announcements strongly affects European stock markets. In this paper we investigate the reaction of stock prices on the Warsaw Stock Exchange to values of macroeconomic indicators published in the Employment Report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. We study the impact of macroeconomic indicators separately as well as interrelations between them. It allows us to specify which of the indicators under study is the most informative. We analyze the impact of information about the state of the labor market in the U.S. in the period from January 2004 to November 2012. In order to describe duration, direction and significance of the impact we apply the event study analysis to intraday returns of WIG – the main index of WSE.
3
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The Impact of US Macroeconomic News on the Prices of Single Stocks on the Vienna Stock Exchange

100%
Wójtowicz T., Mitterer C.
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
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2021
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issue 3
4
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Changes in the impact of US macroeconomic news on financial markets the example of the Warsaw Stock Exchange

100%
Gurgul H., Hastenteufel J., Wójtowicz T.
Statistics in Transition new series
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2021
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vol. 22
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issue 4
41-58
EN
Due to the high importance of the American economy, in the past, announcements of US macroeconomic data were shown to have a significant impact on financial markets in general, and on European stock markets in particular. However, as this effect may vary in time, this paper examines the changes in the impact of US macroeconomic news on the WIG20, the main index of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Based on intraday data from 2004- 2019 we study the changes in significance and in the strength of the reaction of WIG20 to announcements of unexpected values of 13 indicators describing the American economy. On the basis of the event study analysis, we describe the reaction of the WIG20 index in the first few minutes after these kinds of announcements.
5
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Wpływ publikacji danych makroekonomicznych na kurs EUR/PLN w kontekście badania mikrostruktury rynku

63%
Bień-Barkowska K.
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
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2011
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vol. 12
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issue 2
48-57
PL
W artykule przedstawiono wyniki badania reakcji kursu EUR/PLN na publikację danych makroekonomicznych dotyczących sytuacji gospodarczej w Polsce w 2007 r. Zaprezentowana analiza wpisuje się w obszar badań mikrostruktury międzybankowego kasowego rynku złotego. W badaniu przeprowadzonym na podstawie danych z platformy transakcyjnej Reuters 3000 Spot Matching System wykazano, że zaskoczenia informacyjne są bardzo szybko uwzględniane przez dealerów rynku międzybankowego w wartościach kursów składanych zleceń (limit orders). Niemal cały wpływ nowej informacji jest wbudowany w nowy poziom kursu złotego w trakcie dwóch minut po publikacji komunikatu makroekonomicznego. Bardzo dużą rolę w tym procesie odgrywa przepływ zleceń (różnica pomiędzy wartością transakcji zakupu – transakcji, których inicjatorem jest kupujący, a transakcji sprzedaży – transakcji, których inicjatorem jest sprzedający).
EN
In the paper we present the results of the study focused on the EUR/PLN exchange rate reaction to the publication of macroeconomic news concerning Polish economy in 2007. In the market microstructure study, on the basis of the order and trade data from the Reuters 3000 Spot Matching System, we proved that the information surprises are very quickly impounded into prices in limit orders submitted to the market. Nearly all information is built into the new FX rate during subsequent two minutes after the news publication. The significant role in this assimilation process plays the order flow (defined as a difference between volume of buy and sell transactions). It can be estimated that the contribution of order flow amounts to about 50% of FX rate changes induced by the arrival of new information.
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