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EN
In this paper we ask about the role of macroprudential policies to affect the link between lending and capital ratio in countries differing in economic development and capital account openness. To resolve this problem we apply the GMM 2-step Blundell and Bond approach to a sample covering over 60 countries. Our results show that the effect of macroprudential policies on the association between lending and the capital ratio in non-crisis periods is stronger in advanced countries than in emerging countries. Differentiating by the level of capital account openness, we find that macroprudential policies are more effective in increasing the resilience of banks and thus weakening the association between loan supply and capital ratio for relatively closed economies but less effective for relatively open economies. Generally, with our study we are able to support the view that macroprudential policy has the potential to curb the procyclical impact of bank capital on lending.
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EN
The basic aim of this study is to present the nature of the legal forms of administration activities granted by the legislator, applied by the Financial Stability Committee [Komitet Stabilności Finansowej] in the light of administrative law. The specificity of conduct of macroprudential policy and supervision in Poland as well as in compared legal systems is primarily based on the use of forms of non-imperative nature, and that is why it is reasonable to examine what the effectiveness of this mechanism of impact on financial market institutions is and whether in this context it is possible to implement the goal of financial stability.
EN
The purpose of the article is to verify how the SARS-CoV-2 virus pandemic outbreak influenced the decisions to apply the countercyclical capital buffer in the EEA and whether, based on the experience gained so far in applying the countercyclical capital buffer in the EEA, it is possible to clearly distinguish between the models of its application. Methodology used to achieve this, was to built the field of research and to perform a comparative analysis of macroeconomic data on the application of the above-mentioned instrument in the EEA during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Results of the research are two methods and two variants of the application of the countercyclical capital buffer that were distinguished and named, indicating the benefits and challenges of using each of them. Moreover, the limited usefulness of the standardized and additional gap was confirmed in the light of the conducted research, available in the literature. The article concludes with recommendations for further research.
EN
We analyze the effectiveness of various macroprudential policy instruments in reducing the procyclicality of loan-loss provisions (LLPs) using individual bank information from over 65 countries and applying the two-step GMM Blundell-Bond (1998) approach with robust standard errors. Our research identifies several new facts. Firstly, borrower restrictions are definitely more effective in reducing the procyclicality of loan-loss provisions than other macroprudential policy instruments. This effect is supported in both unconsolidated and consolidated data and is robust to several robustness checks. Secondly, dynamic provisions, large exposure concentration limits and taxes on specific assets are effective in reducing the procyclicality of loan-loss provisions. And finally, we find that both loan-to-value caps and debt-to-income ratios, are especially effective in reducing the procyclicality of LLP of large banks. Off-balance-sheet restrictions, concentration limits and taxes are also effective in reducing the procyclicality of LLP of large banks. Dynamic provisions reduce the procyclicality of LLP independently of bank size.
EN
In this paper we ask about the capacity of macroprudential policies to reduce the positive association between loans growth and the capital ratio. We focus on aggregated macroprudential policy measures and on individual instruments and test whether their effect on the association between lending and capital depends on bank size, the economic development of a country as well as on the extent of capital account openness. Applying the GMM 2-step Blundell and Bond approach to a sample covering over 60 countries, we find that macroprudential policy instruments reduce the impact of capital on bank lending during both crisis and non-crisis times. This result is stronger in large banks than in other banks. Of individual macroprudential instruments, only borrower-targeted LTV caps and DTI ratio weaken the association between lending and capital. Our results also show that the effect of macroprudential policies on the association between lending and the capital ratio in non-crisis periods is stronger in advanced countries than in emerging countries. Additionally, differentiating by the level of capital account openness, we find that macroprudential policies are more effective in increasing the resilience of banks and thus weakening the association between loan supply and capital ratio for relatively closed economies but less effective for relatively open economies. Generally, with our study we are able to support the view that macroprudential policy has the potential to curb the procyclical impact of bank capital on lending and therefore, the introduction of more restrictive international capital standards included in Basel III and of macroprudential policies are fully justified.
EN
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the issue of how best to identify speculative bubbles remains in flux. This owes to the difficulty of disentangling irrational investor exuberance from the rational response to lower risk, based on price behavior alone. In response, I introduce a twopillar (price and quantity) approach for financial market surveillance. While asset pricing models comprise a valuable component of the surveillance toolkit, risk taking behavior, and financial vulnerabilities more generally, can also be reflected in subtler, non-price terms. Though policy makers will always encounter uncertainty when attempting to measure imbalances in financial markets, ‘perfect should not be the enemy of the good.’ In this spirit, the framework in this paper seems to capture some of the stylized facts of asset booms and busts, and thus could offer policy makers a practical guide as to when to consider leaning against the wind.
EN
The chapter introduces a vector autoregressive model to study impacts of the banking sector in Poland on the real macroeconomic processes. The model includes variables that capture capital adequacy and credit risk in the banking sector as well as main macroeconomic indicators. The role of macroprudential policy is also discussed. The impulse responses and variance decomposition make it possible to draw conclusions. The main result is that there are strong interconnections between the banking sector and the real side. An important aspect of the analysis is the observed drop of GDP below a potential due to higher capital requirements but the loss to GDP growth is minor.
PL
Analiza opiera się na modelu wektorowej autoregresji (VAR) do badania wpływu sektora bankowego w Polsce na sferę realną. Model obejmuje podstawowe zmienne dla sektora bankowego – współczynnik wypłacalności oraz wskaźnik kredytów z utratą wartości – oraz główne wskaźniki makroekonomiczne. Podano również kontekst polityki makroostrożnościowej. Analiza funkcji reakcji oraz dekompozycji wariancji pozwoliła na wyciągnięcie wniosków, iż istnieją silne wzajemne powiązania między sektorem bankowym a sferą realną. Zaobserwowano spadek PKB poniżej produktu potencjalnego na skutek wyższych wymogów kapitałowych, jednak ograniczenie wzrostu gospodarczego było nieznaczne.
EN
This paper aims to identify the effect of macroprudential policies and microprudential regulations and their interactions on the sensitivity of leverage and liquidity funding risk to the business cycle. Analysing the sample of 782 banks we find that both macroprudential and microprudential instruments have insignificant impact on the procyclicality of leverage in the non-crisis period. Macroprudential instruments decrease the procyclicality of liquidity risk during the non-crisis period and increase the procyclicality of leverage during the crisis. Restrictions on the range of activities conducted by banks reduce the procyclicality of liquidity risk during the non-crisis period. Interaction between the macroprudential instruments targeted at risk-taking by borrowers and restrictions on the range of activities taken by banks has been found to be effective in reducing the procyclicality of leverage during the crisis period.
EN
Research background: Increased regulations reducing systemic risk are essentially underpinned by the understanding of the global nature and sources of instability of the financial system. In the economic literature, there are many arguments presented by critical supporters and opponents of measuring and reporting global systemically important entities. Purpose of the article: In response to the requirements of regulators, the article seeks to identify systematically important regulated stock markets for selected global stock exchanges by developing a composite ratio. Additionally, it provides empirical evidence concerning their risk exploration. Methods: The proposed method uses weighted average values of indicators grouped in four categories: (1) market size, (2) cross-jurisdictional activity and interconnectedness, (3) substitutability, (4) complexity. The research covers stock exchanges, reported to WFE, spanning the period 2008?2017. Findings & Value added: The study finds that the problem of systemic risk on global stock exchanges is growing despite numerous prudential regulations. In order to obtain a more complete assessment of market systemic sensitivity, regulators should take into account a wider range of indicators and calculations such as cross-jurisdictional activity and market complexity.
EN
The aim of this paper is to identify and assess, on a comparative, intra-country basis, the existing practices and developments in central bank accountability for financial stability, from a new–macroprudential policy–perspective. The paper aims to contribute to the ongoing debate on institutional arrangements for macroprudential policy. The debate as to whether the combination of monetary policy and financial supervision within one institution is not new. Nevertheless it is far from being resolved. The paper points to the need to establish clear, formal and robust mechanisms of central bank involvement in the process of executing macroprudential policy, at least as a data collection and analyzing institution.
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EN
The growth of non-core liabilities is regarded as the main cause of unstable credit booms which constitute the most serious source of financial instability. In developing economies the credit expansion is mostly related to inflows of short-term speculative capital. The main goal of the paper is to point out the role played by changing liabilities structure in the formation of credit booms. The paper scrutinizes the case of South Korea, which introduced macroprudential regulations already after the Asian financial crisis in 1997. The subprime financial crisis has proved that those tools were not entirely effective, which has led to the introduction of the “second generation” of macroprudential regulations following 2010. The paper analyzes the role of the growth of non-core liabilities in the Korean financial sector in the 2000’s, verifying if they contributed to the credit boom on the property market, as well as zombie lending to small and medium enterprises. Finally, using qualitative and quantitative data analysis it assesses the effectiveness of the macrostabilizing approach towards macroprudential regulation characteristic of the regulatory tools implemented after 2010.
EN
This paper analyses the effect of credit on monetary policy responses for different regimes in Turkey. To do so, the Taylor rule augmented with the credit gap is estimated by using a Markov regime switching model from January 2006 to December 2019. The empirical findings identify two regimes: the low- and high-interest rate regimes. The prevalence of the former indicates policy authorities’ growth priorities. Furthermore, differing responses across the regimes reflect that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has an asymmetric policy stance. In the low-interest rate regime, the monetary policy only significantly responds to inflation. In the high-interest rate regime, both inflation and credit have significant positive impacts on interest rate setting. This indicates that credit conditions affected the tightening of the monetary policy stance in Turkey despite the use of macroprudential tools after the global financial crisis.
Bezpieczny Bank
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2021
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vol. 84
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issue 3
43-64
EN
Stabilization of the financial system and counteracting economic crises are among the pressing challenges and public authority tests. In recent years, in many rankings, it was possible to see that the institutional paths of the new "macroprudential perspective", which in the letters to the supplements to date, cover the entire financial system. Simultaneously, a new conceptual network has emerged, which seems to ignore the existing terminological conventions. In particular, the term "supervision" is misused instead of "policy" or is sometimes used synonymously. The thesis also applies to EU legal and national law (e.g., in Poland) and the nomenclature used in the literature, where there is no in-depth, interdisciplinary analysis in this area and comparative summaries of the terms used. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to systematize the most important terms used in the area of financial stability and to clarify their meaning by indicating the correct conceptual designations.
PL
Stabilizacja systemu finansowego i przeciwdziałanie kryzysom gospodarczym są współcześnie jednymi z najważniejszych wyzwań i obszarów aktywności władzy publicznej. Na przestrzeni ostatnich lat, w wielu państwach można było zaobserwować procesy instytucjonalizacji nowej „perspektywy makroostrożnościowej”, która w przeciwieństwie do dotychczasowych rozwiązań obejmuje cały system finansowy. Równocześnie powstała pewna nowa siatka pojęciowa, która jednak zdaje się ignorować dotychczasowe konwencje terminologiczne. W szczególności błędnie używa się pojęcia „nadzór” zamiast „polityka” lub niekiedy pojęcia te traktuje się jako synonimy. Teza ta dotyczy zarówno aktów prawnych UE, jak i prawa krajowego (np. w Polsce), a także nazewnictwa stosowanego w literaturze, gdzie brakuje pogłębionej, interdyscyplinarnej analizy w tym zakresie, jak również zestawień porównawczych pozwalających uporządkować używane pojęcia. Dlatego celem tego opracowania jest usystematyzowanie najważniejszych terminów stosowanych w obszarze stabilności finansowej oraz doprecyzowanie ich znaczenia poprzez wskazanie właściwych desygnatów pojęciowych.
PL
Porównujemy dobrobyt i makroekonomiczne skutki polityki pieniężnej i makroostrożnościowej, w szczególności opartej na wskaźniku LTV (loan-to-value). Budujemy model DSGE z ograniczeniami zastawowymi i dwoma typami agentów. Za jego pomocną badamy siedem reguł polityki reagujących na stopę wzrostu kredytu i fluktuacje cen zastawu. Pokazujemy, że reguła polityki pieniężnej, która stabilizuje ceny zastawu, skutkuje najwyższym poziomem dobrobytu, a także pozwala stabilizować produkt i inflację. Polityka makroostrożnościowa używająca wskaźnika LTV jest niemal zawsze zdominowana przez politykę stopy procentowej pod względem wariancji produktu i inflacji. W przypadku niemożliwości zastosowania reguł polityki pieniężnej oddzielna polityka makroostrożnościowa pozwala osiągnąć pewne korzyści w zakresie dobrobytu, ale nie są one znaczne.
EN
We compare the welfare and macroeconomic effects of monetary policy and macroprudential policy, in particular one targeting the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with collateral constraints and two types of agents. In this set-up, we study seven potential policy rules responding to credit growth and fluctuations in the prices of collateral. We show that monetary policy responding to deviations in collateral prices from their steady-state value results in the highest level of social welfare. It is also useful in stabilising output and inflation. A macroprudential policy using the LTV ratio as the instrument is dominated in terms of output and inflation stability by interest rate rules. If interest rate rules are not available, the LTV ratio can be used to improve welfare, but the gains are small.
EN
This article focuses on liquidity standards whose significance has risen since the recent crisis of 2007/2008. The analysis concentrates on two areas. The first one is identification of common characteristics of liquidity standards recommended in Basel III and provisions included in directives and regulations in the European Union, as well as common traits of Polish supervisory liquidity rules and Basel III standards in this field. The other is identification of effects of liquidity standards. Analysis of Polish supervisory liquidity standards leads to conclusion that they have their counterparts in liquidity standards recommended by the Basel Committee. Simulations conducted by the Bank for International Settlements show that implementation of liquidity standards will bring more benefits than losses, for both banking (and financial) sector and the real economy. Unfortunately, contemporary empirical research only explains what are the effects of application of reserve requirements used in monetary policy. So little is known about the effects of other instruments whose track record is relatively short. However, even this scant evidence seems to support the prediction that reserve requirements could potentially be applied as a tool stabilizing financial sector and diminishing systemic risk.
PL
Artykuł dotyczy standardów płynnościowych, których istotność dla prowadzenia polityki regulacyjnej państwa wzrosła w okresie po kryzysie finansowym 2007/2008, szczególnie w obszarze dbania o stabilność finansową. Analiza zawarta w artykule koncentrowała się na dwóch grupach zagadnień. Po pierwsze na identyfikacji wspólnych cech międzynarodowych standardów płynnościowych określonych w Bazylei III oraz w przepisach prawnych w Unii Europejskiej oraz porównaniu polskich nadzorczych miar płynności ze standardami międzynarodowymi, po drugie zaś na określeniu potencjalnych skutków stosowania standardów płynnościowych. Artykuł jest efektem badań finansowanych przez Wydział Zarządzania Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego ze środków na rozwój potencjału badawczego.
PL
W artykule przedstawiono wyjaśnienia zjawiska procykliczności działalności depozytowo-kredytowej na gruncie teorii zawodności mechanizmu rynkowego oraz na gruncie finansów behawioralnych. Wskazano, że wśród takich głównych zakłóceń znajdują się: efekty zewnętrzne związane ze strategicznymi komplementarnościami, z masową sprzedażą aktywów oraz z powiązaniami (i prowadzące do zjawiska zarażania). Zakłócenia mechanizmu rynkowego zakorzenione w teorii ekonomii klasycznej nie dają pełnego obrazu procykliczności działalności depozytowo-kredytowej. Aby ją lepiej zrozumieć, należy odwołać się do osiągnięć finansów behawioralnych. Analizie poddano również podstawowe antycykliczne instrumenty polityki makroostrożnościowej oraz mechanizm transmisji tych instrumentów w obszarze oddziaływania na cykl kredytowy i odporność sektora finansowego oraz określono również czynniki, które mogą ograniczać skuteczność i efektywność tych instrumentów.
EN
This article presents explanations of the procyclicality phenonomenon with the application of the theory of market failures and behavioral finance. This analysis shows that the most important failures include: externalities of strategic complementarities (the classical herding phenomenon), fire sale externalities (i.e. asset prices spirals); network externalities (i.e. contagion risk). The theory of market failures does not say the whole story about the procyclicality phenomenon. To get a fuller picture of procyclicality one has to resort to behavioral finance, i.e. availability heuristics and threshold heuristics. The analysis also focuses on macroprudential instruments in their potential to affect financial cycle and soundness of financial sector. The article aims also to identify basic limitation of macroprudential policy instruments.
EN
This article aims to analyse the implications of time dimension of systemic risk (procyclicality) on the conduct of macroprudential policy. A multitude of procyclicality factors imply the need for multiple anticyclical tools addressing particular factors. The analysis shows that macroprudential authority should take a proactive stance and analyse financial stability within a longer time horizon, so as not to experience the paradox of financial instability or be subject to inaction bias. Macroprudential supervision should act both during boom (limiting the build-up of systemic risk) and recession (mitigating its materialisation) and, regardless of the financial cycle phase, seek to strengthen resilience of the financial system to shocks. The key to its effectiveness is development of an operational framework and ways to effectively implement its tools, taking intoaccount different attitudes towards procyclicality of the institutions responsible for conducting macroprudential policy.
PL
Celem artykułu jest analiza wpływu czasowego wymiaru ryzyka systemowego – procykliczności na sposób sprawowania nadzoru makroostrożnościowego. Mnogość czynników procyklicznych implikuje konieczność opracowania wielu narzędzi antycyklicznych ograniczających poszczególne czynniki. Z analizy wynika, że działania nadzoru makroostrożnościowego powinny przyjąć postawę proaktywną oraz należy przyjąć dłuższy horyzont analizy uwzględniający przyszłą niestabilność bez ulegania paradoksowi niestabilności i bezczynności. Nadzór makroostrożnościowy powinien działać zarówno w okresie ożywienia (ograniczanie narastania ryzyka systemowego), jak i dekoniunktury (łagodzenie przejawów jego materializacji), a niezależnie od fazy cyklu dążyć do wzmacniania odporności systemu finansowego na szoki. Kluczowe dla jego skuteczności jest opracowanie ram działania i sposobu implementacji jego narzędzi i uwzględnienie różnego nastawienia wobec procykliczności instytucji wchodzących w skład organu nadzoru makroostrożnościowego.
Bezpieczny Bank
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2021
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vol. 85
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issue 4
7-35
PL
Artykuł poświęcony jest polityce makroostrożnościowej w gospodarkach Unii Europejskiej w okresie pandemii Covid-19, od końca 2019 roku do połowy 2021. Głównym celem analizy było porównanie zmian restrykcyjności wymogów makroostrożnościowych (buforów kapitałowych) z wykorzystaniem różnych miar restrykcyjności (wymóg kapitałowy, nadwyżkowy bufor kapitałowy, potencjał do ekspansji kredytowej). Stosując metody ilościowej i jakościowej analizy danych zidentyfikowano główne przyczyny zmian restrykcyjności polityki makroostrożnościowej, wykazując że jej ograniczenie wynikało w większej mierze z dążenia do odbudowy pozycji kapitałowej banków niż z obniżenia wymogu regulacyjnego. Analiza pokazała ponadto, że spośród badanych państw wymogi kapitałowe dla banków w Polsce w trakcie pandemii zostały poluzowane najbardziej.
EN
The article tackles the issue of macroprudential policy in the European Union during the Covid-19 pandemic, from the end of 2019 to mid-2021. The main purpose of the analysis was to compare changes in the restrictiveness of macroprudential requirements (capital buffers) using various restrictiveness measures (capital requirement, excess capital buffer, bank lending capacity). Using quantitative and qualitative data analysis, the main reasons for changes in the restrictiveness of macroprudential policy have been identified. It has been shown that the reduction of the regulatory stringency resulted to a bigger extent from improved capital position of banks than from a lower capital requirement. The analysis has also indicated that among the EU countries, capital requirements for banks in Poland were loosened the most during the pandemic.
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