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The military-geographical significance of the Suwałki Gap

100%

Parafianowicz R.

Security and Defence Quarterly

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2017

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vol. 17

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issue 4

3-20

EN

Dynamic changes in the security environment are forcing us to reflect on the shape of the international order at the end of the second decade of the 21st century. The aggressive policy of the Russian Federation, which is confirmed by the conflict with Georgia in 2008 and the current situation in Ukraine, indicates that the use of military violence in the resolution of international disputes is not a historical category at all. This is of particular importance to the geopolitical location of the Republic of Poland. The length of our land border with the Russian Federation is 210 km, while with Belarus it is 418 km. The above fact has a fundamental impact not only on the public debate on the security of our country and the region, but also, and perhaps most importantly, on the shape of defence policy and the content of planning possible measures to prevent and counteract the escalation of prospective tensions in NATO-Russia relations. Both Russian military doctrine and the opinions expressed by politicians and specialists dealing with military issues and political and military experts indicate that, from the Russian perspective, the Baltic States’ membership of the North Atlantic Alliance and the presence of NATO troops on the territory of these countries, is highly unfavourable. Therefore, there are grounds to believe that countries such as Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, are treated by Russia as natural bridgeheads, convenient for bringing possible strikes against Russia. Therefore, it is possible that blocking communication routes leading to these countries, while cutting them off from the support of allied land forces, may prove to be a key success factor in the situation of a hypothetical armed conflict, aimed not only at depriving these countries of their sovereignty, but also aimed at discrediting the power of the Alliance.

2

Hybrid Threats and Warfare, Are we Really Facing Something New?

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Królikowski H.

Internal Security

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2017

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vol. 9(2)

9-21

EN

Since 2014 the term hybrid warfare and threats has become catchword. This term (hybrid warfare) was introduced to academic discourse by William J. Nemeth in 2002 in relation to the wars in Chechnya and popularised in 2006 by Frank G. Hoffman in relation, among other things, to the second Intifada. In 2014 after the annexation of Crimea by Russia and the outbreak of fighting in eastern Ukraine, the terms hybrid war and hybrid threats were transferred from scholarly discussion to politics and official documents. The author seeks to answer the following question: is the invention of so called hybrid warfare and hybrid threats something new, or rather a confused reaction to European Union and NATO astonishment at Russian activity in the eastern and southern frontiers of Ukraine. The fact that armed conflict includes mixed elements of regular and irregular forms of armed combat, guerillas and terrorists, criminal acts, use of new technologies to conduct armed, information, psychological or economic warfare is not new. Scholars who investigate hybrid conflicts give examples of historic wars starting from the war between Rome and the Germans ( Publius Quinctilius Varus campaign in 9 AD against German tribes led by Arminius), through the war of independence in the USA, to the Chechen wars. Nowadays, greater and greater dependence on technology, information delivered in almost real time and the creation of more elaborate and complicated procedures and decisive processes in Western countries have increased the vulnerability to hostile actions other than military ones and ones that use military force.

3

IRREGULAR ACTIVITIES AND ARMED FORCES

100%

Jurčák V., Majchút I.

Ante Portas – Studia nad Bezpieczeństwem

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2016

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vol. 2(7) Obrona Terytorialna i jej rola we współczesnych systemach bezpieczeństwa

315-328

EN

Conflicts in the current world are a global security threat. Conflict resolution is not easy, unless the reason are the political tensions and disputes in the state or between states and the pursuit of resolving these disputes by peaceful or diplomatic forms are unsuccessful. Radicalized non-state actors, who are the other actors of the conflict, do not see the possibility of applying democratic means of solving the problem, and therefore resort to irregular activities with the aim to discredit the government, destabilize the state authority, activate riots, open acts of violence and so on1 . Necessarily this creates conditions for the use of armed force as an instrument of power of the state or peacekeeping force of the international crisis management organizations which are present in conflict resolution

4

Tiered risk assessment of chemical pollution caused by military activities

88%

Orel S.

Security and Defence Quarterly

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2016

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vol. 13

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issue 4

79-97

EN

The methodology of environmental risk is becoming more common to assess the impact of chemical pollution on human beings and the environment, providing information for making environmental remediation decisions. This article examines the impact on human health chemicals that penetrated into river water as a result of an accident at a military ammunition depot. The river is the source of drinking water for the population. Assessing the impact of chemicals on the health of adults, adolescents and children is carried out in stages (tiers), from simple to complex. Assessment is carried out both for carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic substances. The first tier is executed by a deterministic method – a method in which all biological, chemical, physical, and environmental parameters are assumed to be constant and can be accurately specified. Deterministic methods commonly apply to either a “most likely” value for a parameter, or a conservative value. When the obtained values are insufficient for making the decision, the second tier of a risk assessment begins. The values in this case have the form of probability distributions that determine their variability. Processing the risk model with the help of the one-dimensional Monte Carlo method gives more accurate data in the form of risk distribution. However, the method does not consider the lack of knowledge about the values of input variables, so, at the third tier of a risk assessment, the two-dimensional Monte Carlo method is used. In this case, the specifi ed values of risk look like trend charts and indicate the limits of probability of risk for a certain percentage of the population.

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2 Security and Defence Quarterly

1 Ante Portas – Studia nad Bezpieczeństwem

1 Internal Security

1 Jurčák V.

1 Królikowski H.

1 Majchút I.

1 Orel S.

1 Parafianowicz R.

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2 2016

The military-geographical significance of the Suwałki Gap

Hybrid Threats and Warfare, Are we Really Facing Something New?

IRREGULAR ACTIVITIES AND ARMED FORCES

Tiered risk assessment of chemical pollution caused by military activities