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EN
Implications of market frictions in the context of serial correlations in indexes on the Central and Eastern European (CEE) stock markets have been analysed. Market frictions, such as non-trading effects, bid/ask spreads, other transaction costs, etc., may be detected by direct measurement, or by indirect identification. Direct measurement of frictions is difficult as intraday trading data are unavailable in the case of most of the emerging CEE stock markets. Indirect identification may be conducted by detecting some empirical phenomena. One of them is evidence of serial correlations in indexes, the so-called the Fisher effect. We explore the problem of serial correlations in indexes on the eight CEE stock markets using data samples from each CEE market separately, as well as a “common trading window” approach, which is widely applied in the case of databases with multivariate time series. The evidence is that nonsynchronous trading effect II between markets may substantially disrupt the analysis of index returns on a domestic market. Using a synchronized database, one may erroneously conclude that the Fisher effect does not exist, although it is present.
EN
Performance measurement of investment managers is a topic of interest to practitioners and academics alike. The traditional performance evaluation literature has attempted to distinguish stock-picking ability (selectivity) from the ability to predict overall market returns (market-timing). However, the literature finds that it is not easy to separate ability into two such dichotomous categories. To overcome these problems multifactor alternative market-timing models have been proposed. The author's recent research provides evidence of strong ARCH effects in the market-timing models of Polish equity open-end mutual funds. For this reason, the main goal of this paper is to present the regression results of the new GARCH(p, q) versions of market-timing models of these funds. We estimate multifactor extensions of classical market-timing models with Fama & French's spread variables SMB and HML, and Carhart's momentum factor WML. We also include lagged values of the market factor as an additional independent variable in the regressions of the models because of the pronounced "Fisher effect" in the case of the main Warsaw Stock Exchange indexes. The market-timing and selectivity abilities of fund managers are evaluated for the period January 2003-December 2010. Our findings suggest that the GARCH(p, q) model is suitable for such applications.
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