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The Problem of New Evidence: P-Hacking and Pre-Analysis Plans

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Hitzig Z., Stegenga J.

Diametros

2020

vol. 17

issue 66

We provide a novel articulation of the epistemic peril of p-hacking using three resources from philosophy: predictivism, Bayesian confirmation theory, and model selection theory. We defend a nuanced position on p-hacking: p-hacking is sometimes, but not always, epistemically pernicious. Our argument requires a novel understanding of Bayesianism, since a standard criticism of Bayesian confirmation theory is that it cannot represent the influence of biased methods. We then turn to pre-analysis plans, a methodological device used to mitigate p-hacking. Some say that pre-analysis plans are epistemically meritorious while others deny this, and in practice pre-analysis plans are often violated. We resolve this debate with a modest defence of pre-analysis plans. Further, we argue that pre-analysis plans can be epistemically relevant even if the plan is not strictly followed—and suggest that allowing for flexible pre-analysis plans may be the best available policy option.

In chase of statistically significant result. Consequences of widespread use of NHST (null hypothesis significance testing) in psychology

86%

Karpe K.

Nauka

2017

issue 1

NHST (null hypothesis significance testing) is the most popular statistical paradigm in psychology. Mistakes in interpretation of its assumptions and their consequences are topic for methodological and statistical discussion for over fifty years. Article presents two problems associated with NHST that are particularly prevalent in psychology: identifying non-significant results with research failure and conducting underpowered research. They can contribute to increase in exploiting questionable research practices in order to obtain desirable, significant outcomes. Three practices: p-hacking, HARKing and selective publishing are described, along with analysis of their impact on replication crisis in psychological science.

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1 Diametros

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1 Karpe K.

1 Stegenga J.

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The Problem of New Evidence: P-Hacking and Pre-Analysis Plans

In chase of statistically significant result. Consequences of widespread use of NHST (null hypothesis significance testing) in psychology