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Convergence of price dynamics assessed in view of Poland’s accession to the euro area focusing on deflation

100%
Błaszczyk P., Fojutowski Ł.
Środkowoeuropejskie Studia Polityczne
|
2018
|
issue 3
99-118
EN
The primary aim of this study was to assess the degree of Poland’s convergence in terms of price stability, both at the stage of the country’s candidacy to the euro area and in relation to the euro convergence criteria (the so-called Maastricht criteria), and in the broader context of the ECB’s unified monetary policy. The time frame for this study covers the period of 2004– 2017. The starting point marks Poland’s accession to the EU, which is a pre-requisite for application to access the euro area. The closing time was chosen due to the availability of data, mainly from the Eurostat database. This was studied in view of the critical analysis of methodology and the method used to establish the Maastricht criterion for the dynamics of the general price level. The methodology of determining the inflation criterion is flawed and not matched to today’s economic conditions, including the definition of price stability applied in the practice of central banking, as well as in the context of the phenomenon of deflation commonly occurring in the last decade. As a consequence, the value of the criterion for a candidate country may turn out to be very low, and may unjustifiably increase the costs of accession to the euro area, also in the long-term perspective. Such a problem should be taken into account in the discussion on Poland’s accession to the euro area, which is usually of a political, as well as social and economic nature. This economic aspect, however, should be key in practice.
2
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Niezależność Narodowego Banku Polskiego a relacje z Parlamentem RP

86%
Sura R.
Przegląd Sejmowy
|
2021
|
issue 4(165)
105-122
EN
The position of the NBP at the time of the common market and progressive Europeanisation of the economy and all areas of community life was particularly important. Currently, in the time of the global crisis caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, encompassing both the supply and demand side of the world economy, the role of the central bank is increasing. Without its involvement, there would be no effective protective measures, aimed at mitigating the decline in GDP growth in Poland and protecting jobs. The central bank, together with the Polish Government and Parliament, is of key importance for Poland’s economic development, while the independence of the NBP is of major significance for its credibility in financial markets. That is why it is so important to try to answer the questions what the independence of the NBP is and whether constitutional and statutory regulations of the relations between the Parliament of the Republic of Poland and the central bank do not breach this independence.
3
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Zmiany stopy procentowej Narodowego Banku Polskiego w XXI w. na tle reguły Taylora

86%
Błaszczyk P.
Przegląd Prawno-Ekonomiczny
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2020
|
issue 4
73-85
EN
The main purpose of the present study is to analyse changes in the interest rate of the National Bank of Poland in the 21st century. The Taylor rule, which often constitutes the reference to changes in short-term interest rates, was used as a research tool. In many cases, despite its relative simplicity, it describes well the actual changes in interest rates at central banks. The study consists of three main parts. The first outlines the contemporary monetary policy, attempting to capture its consensus in terms of goals, instruments and strategies. The role of rules and discretion in monetary policy was shown. The second part presents the methodology of the empirical research used in this paper. The main research assumptions were indicated and the construction of the Taylor’s rule was discussed. The third part of the article contains empirical studies in which an analysis of changes in the reference rate of the National Bank of Poland in the 21st century was carried out against the background of the Taylor rule. Selected decisions regarding changes in this rate were assessed, in particular in the years 2015-2020.
PL
Głównym celem tego opracowania jest analiza zmian stopy procentowej NBP w XXI w. Jako narzędzie badawcze wykorzystano regułę Taylora, która często stanowi odniesienie do zmian krótkookresowych stóp procentowych. W wielu przypadkach, mimo relatywnej swojej prostoty, dobrze opisuje faktyczne zmiany stóp procentowych w bankach centralnych. Opracowanie składa się z trzech głównych części. W pierwszej zarysowano współczesną politykę pieniężną, dokonując próby uchwycenia jej konsensu w zakresie celów, instrumentów i strategii. Ukazano przy tym rolę reguł i dyskrecjonalności w polityce pieniężnej. W drugiej części przedstawiono metodykę badania empirycznego zastosowanego w tym opracowaniu. Wskazano główne założenia badawcze oraz omówiono konstrukcję reguły Taylora. Trzecia część artykuł zawiera badania empiryczne, w których przeprowadzono analizę zmian stopy referencyjnej NBP w XXI w. na tle reguły Taylora. Dokonano przy tym oceny wybranych decyzji dotyczących zmiany tej stopy, w szczególności w latach 2015-2020.
4
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Kilka wyzwań dla teorii ekonomii po kryzysie

72%
Machaj M.
Studia Ekonomiczne (Economic Studies)
|
2009
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issue 3-4(62-63)
279-296
EN
The article presents six challenges confronting economic theory after 2008 crash, which should be addressed by economists in next few years. The first challenge raises the question regarding compatibility of economic stability with consumer price stability. The second one questions the existing theory of interest rates and its relation to capital theory. The third one touches upon the problem of unstable banking and currency systems. The forth one combines those issues and relates them to the role of central banks. The fifth challenge is due to unrealistic risk assessments used by the mainstream models. And the sixth challenge is due to forlorn hopes of perfect regulatory mechanisms to prevent those types of crashes from happening.
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