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SHORT-TERM FISCAL IMBALANCE COMPARISON IN V4 COUNTRIES USING A DYNAMIC CONDITIONAL CORRELATION APPROACH

100%
Drab R., Martinkova S., Mihokova L.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
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2017
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vol. 12
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issue 2
261-280
EN
Research background: The crisis periods have highlighted the interdependence between individual European economies in the area of economic and fiscal development. The common development tendencies raise the question whether the fiscal indebtedness and preferred fiscal policy of V4 countries can be considered as interdepending. Considering this assumption, a possibility for implementing a similar type of consolidation in selected clusters of countries could be proposed. Purpose of the article: The research is, from the empirical point of view, focused on the analysis and comparison of primary balance indicator, analysis and assessment of fiscal measures (in identified fiscal episodes) and analysis of fiscal development intercorrelations using the dynamic conditional correlation approach. Methods: The empirical assessment of the research objective is, from the methodological point of view, divided into five phases: (1) the calculation of primary deficit indicator, (2) the analysis, comparison and assessment of the fiscal development in the V4 countries based on the annual primary deficit during the selected period 1999–2016, (3) the seasonal adjustment of performing time series and non-stationarity testing, (4) the dynamic conditional correlation approach (DCC) application. Within the analysis, the traditional and specific methods were used (time series analysis, content analysis, descriptive statistics, correlation methods, DCC approach). Findings & Value added: The results of the research suggest that between V4 countries do exist significant differences based on which cannot be clearly confirmed the assumption about the fiscal development interdependence in V4 countries. From the long-term perspective, it can be stated that the fiscal development in V4 countries is a very slightly positively related aspect, but in the context of the implementation of a common consolidation strategy it is not sufficient.
2
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Fiscal Sustainability in CEE Countries – the Case of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland

100%
Mackiewicz-Łyziak J.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
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2015
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vol. 10
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issue 2
53-71
EN
The aim of the study is to assess fiscal sustainability in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland and to test for existence of fiscal dominance in these countries in the context of the fiscal theory of the price level. The empirical study is conducted using unit root tests and cointegration analysis with possible structural breaks. The approach is consistent with so called backward-looking approach for fiscal dominance testing proposed by Bohn (1998). The results suggest that in the Czech Republic and Poland fiscal dominance prevailed in the analyzed period, while in Hungary – monetary dominance. The result for Hungary may be caused, however, by a one-time reduction in debt resulting from changes in pension system.
3
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Determinanty zróżnicowania zmian wskaźnika długu publicznego w krajach UE 15 w latach 2000-2014

86%
Grabia T.
Nauki o Finansach
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2015
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issue 3(24)
25-46
EN
The aim of the article is to identify the determinants of changes in public debt ratios in the developed countries of the EU (EU-15). The analysis was based on the observations of the average values of analysed variables in particular countries throughout the study period and over two sub-periods: 2001-2007 and 2008-2014. On the basis of the article it can be concluded that the diversification of changes in public debt ratios resulted mainly from varying budget and primary balances (the lower the deficits, the lower the increases in public debt ratios) and, to a smaller extent, also from varying interest rates on bonds (the lower the interest rates, the lower the increases in public debt ratios) as well as varying economic growth rates (the higher the economic growth rates, the lower the rises in public debt ratios).
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The SGP – Faulty by Design or Made Faulty by Politicians? An Assessment Based on a Simulation Model

86%
Horáková Š., Jahoda R.
Review of Economic Perspectives
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2014
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vol. 14
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issue 3
249-265
EN
By joining the European Monetary Union (the “EMU”), member countries lost the ability to use monetary policy as a tool for macroeconomic regulation. The attention was then focused on regulation of fiscal policy and Stability and Growth Pact (the “SGP”) was the instrument agreed upon. The states of the EMU have agreed to meet the 3% of GDP requirement for the maximum annual public budget deficit. Based on evolution of public debt in member countries, we can say that the SGP has failed as a tool for fiscal discipline. In this paper, we answer the question of whether the failure was due to the incorrect concept of the SGP or whether the development of the debt was affected more by arbitrary disrespect of the agreed rules. The two reasons mentioned above are interdependent. To separate them, we construct a dynamic model of EU countries’ public debt. By using real data, we simulate the potential values of public debt in a situation where the SGP rules have been respected in recent years. Comparing the results for the potential debt given by simulation of the model with the current real values, we are able to quantify the impact of non-compliance for each country. The initial results indicate that there are both EU states where non-compliance led to a negligible increase in public debt - up to 7% of GDP - and other states where this factor caused the growth of public debt by more than 30% of GDP.
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Medium- and Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability in Europe

72%
Ptak P.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
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2014
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vol. 270
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issue 2
25-52
PL
Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie koncepcji stabilności fiskalnej w świetle raportu Komisji Europejskiej Fiscal Sustainability Report 2012 oraz jego krytyczna analiza. Analiza rozpoczyna się od przedstawienia ogólnej koncepcji stabilności fiskalnej, a następnie wprowadza podejście zastosowane w raporcie. Szczegółowo przedstawione zostały wskaźniki stabilności fiskalnej S1 i S2 w kontekście kryzysu zadłużenia, procesu starzenia się społeczeństwa, a także przy uwzględnieniu implikacji płynących z ekonomii politycznej. Przyjęta przez autora metodologia opiera się na podejściu analitycznym, które umożliwia ocenę stabilności fiskalnej. Ponadto w artykule zastosowano analizę opisową oraz metodę porównawczą. Zostały skomentowane wyniki pomiaru stabilności fiskalnej w Europie i w Polsce. Zakres analizy stabilności finansów publicznych został rozszerzony o Polskę w celu uwzględnienia podwyższenia ustawowego wieku emerytalnego do lat 67 dla kobiet i mężczyzn oraz ukazania jego wpływu na stabilność finansów publicznych w średnim i długim horyzoncie czasowym. W końcowej części artykułu, oprócz wniosków, wyodrębnione zostały zalety i wady podejścia zastosowanego w raporcie. Pomimo faktu, że przedstawiona tam koncepcja nie może zostać bezpośrednio zastosowana w bieżącej polityce gospodarczej - ze względu na wysoką wrażliwość wskaźników stabilności na zmiany parametrów - Raport o stabilności fiskalnej powinien służyć jako istotny dokument rządowy, regularnie uaktualniany, niemniej wymagający sporej dozy obiektywizmu.
EN
The article focuses on the concept of fiscal sustainability in light of the European Commission’s Fiscal Sustainability Report 2012. The author discusses the concept of fiscal sustainability and examines sustainability indicators (S1 and S2) in the context of a sovereign debt crisis and population aging. The author uses an analytical approach as well as descriptive analysis and comparative methods in his research. He comments on the results of fiscal sustainability studies for Poland and Europe as a whole. The analysis of fiscal sustainability in Poland takes into account a recent increase in the statutory retirement age to 67 years for men and women and shows the detailed impact of that decision on the sustainability of public finances in the medium and long term. In the final part of the article, the author highlights the advantages and disadvantages of the approach used in the report. He concludes that the concept of fiscal sustainability cannot be used directly in day-to-day economic policy due to the high sensitivity of sustainability indicators to parameter changes. According to Ptak, the European Commission’s Fiscal Sustainability Report is an important policy document that should be updated regularly.
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Why do richer EU countries have a higher public debt ratio than their poorer counterparts?

72%
Grabia T.
Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
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2019
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issue vol. 63, nr 12
35-48
EN
This article aims to identify the factors differentiating public debt ratios among EU countries with different levels of development. The study period from 2000 to 2018 was adopted. The analysis was extended to the period of 1990-1996, for inflation only. In order to achieve the aim, a time-series analysis and correlation coefficients between selected categories were examined. Based on the above, the analysis indicates that differences in the public debt ratios in EU countries stemmed also from reasons that do not result from Keynesian and non- -Keynesian effects, such as: (i) varying economic growth rates (according to the theory of real convergence); (ii) varying inflation rates; (iii) different conditions relating to the stabilization of debt ratios in the context of primary balance volumes.
PL
Celem artykułu jest identyfikacja czynników różnicujących wskaźniki długu publicznego w krajach UE o różnych poziomach rozwoju gospodarczego. Przyjęto okres badawczy od 2000 do 2018 r. W przypadku inflacji analiza została poszerzona także o lata 1990-1996. Aby osiągnąć cel, przeanalizowano szeregi czasowe oraz współczynniki korelacji między wybranymi kategoriami. Na podstawie przeprowadzonej analizy można stwierdzić, że różnice we wskaźnikach długu publicznego w krajach UE wynikały nie tylko z efektów keynesowskich i niekeynesowskich, ale również z takich czynników, jak: (i) zróżnicowane stopy wzrostu gospodarczego (zgodnie z teorią realnej konwergencji); (ii) zmienne stopy inflacji; (iii) różne warunki stabilizacji wskaźnika zadłużenia z punktu widzenia kształtowania się salda pierwotnego.
7
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The Fiscal Policy of Germany and France. From the Creation of the Euro up to the Pandemic

72%
Ptak P.
Nauki o Finansach
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2022
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vol. 27
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issue 2
67-83
PL
Celem artykułu jest prezentacja rozwoju długu sektora instytucji rządowych i samo- rządowych oraz salda sektora instytucji rządowych i samorządowych w dwóch krajach strefy euro: w Niemczech i we Francji w celu sprawdzenia stopnia wypełnienia kryteriów konwergencji. W artykule omówiono dwa okresy: od czasu utworzenia wspólnej waluty do okresu przed globalnym kryzysem i po globalnym kryzysie do czasu pandemii. Francja i Niemcy notorycznie łamały zasady Paktu Stabilności i Wzrostu. Początek kryzysu to skokowy wzrost deficytu oraz relacji długu do PKB do poziomu ponad 80% w obu krajach, a następnie okres konsolidacji fiskalnej, w efekcie której Niemcy zdołały obniżyć swój dług poniżej 60% PKB, podczas gdy we Francji wskaźnik ten zbliżył się do 100% w 2019 roku. Metodologia przyjęta w artykule opiera się na podejściu analitycznym oraz przeglądzie literatury przedmiotu. W oparciu o tę metodologię przeprowadzono analizę stabilności długu publicznego. Zdaniem autora, Francja mogła wykorzystać okres wzrostu gospodarczego i przeprowadzić niezbędne reformy strukturalne. W sytuacji, kiedy podwyżki stóp procentowych ECB będą kontynuowane, kraj ten może znaleźć się w obliczu sytuacji krytycznej.
EN
The aim of this article is to demonstrate the development of general government debt and general government balance in two Eurozone countries, Germany and France, in order to investigate the extent of the fulfilment of the convergence criteria. The article is divided into two periods: from the creation of the Euro currency to the period before the global financial crisis, and after it to the time of the pandemic. France and Germany notoriously violated the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact. The beginning of the financial crisis saw a sharp rise in the deficit and debt-to-GDP ratio to over 80% in both countries followed by a fiscal consolidation period. As a result, Germany managed to reduce its debt to 60% of GDP, while in France this indicator achieved a level close to 100% in 2019. The methodology is based on an analytical approach and a literature review of the subject (see Escolano, 2010). Following this methodology, the debt sustainability analysis of the public debt was carried out. According to the author, France should have carried out the necessary structural reforms. Otherwise, if interest rates of ECB continue to rise, France may face a critical situation.
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