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1

The Relationship between Fiscal Sustainability and Currency Crises in Some Selected Countries

100%
Cruz-Rodríguez A.
Review of Economic Perspectives
|
2013
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vol. 13
|
issue 4
176-194
EN
The aim of this article is to assess whether a Fiscal Sustainability Indicator (FSI) can be used to predict the probability that a currency crisis occurs. The FSI developed by Croce and Juan-Ramón (2003) is employed. Two different definitions for currency crises are used to evaluate whether they induce different results in the analysis. In general, the results suggest that the lagged FSI has an explanatory power over currency crises in some countries.
2
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Zachowania inwestycyjne przedsiębiorstw przetwórstwa przemysłowego

100%
Gradzewicz M.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
|
2006
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vol. 207
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issue 4
31-55
EN
The aim of the research was to identify the motives behind the investment decisions of manufacturing enterprises in Poland in 1996-2003. The analysis was conducted with the use of probit models and an extensive body of panel data applying to individual enterprises to determine the probability of an investment decision. The author discovered that three key factors encouraged investment by manufacturing enterprises in all the surveyed groups (exporters, publicly traded companies, private domestic and foreign enterprises and companies with foreign capital). The first factor is the expected demand for an enterprise’s products, reflecting prospective sales possibilities. Another important factor is the use of production capacity, reflecting the company’s possibilities for expanding its volume of production on the basis of existing resources and assets. Both these factors are complementary with regard to the description of the investment process. Enterprises wanting to expand their sales tend to make investment decisions when their existing fixed assets are insufficient to increase the supply of products. The third key factor that determines investment decisions is prior involvement in a long-term investment process and the continuation of work in progress. In light of the research, the cost of raising funds and the restrictiveness of monetary policy are only loosely related to the course of investment processes in Poland.
3
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Models of Probability for Random Variables of Bernoulli Distribution

100%
Mantaj A., Wagner W., University of Information Technology and Management in Rzeszów
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
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2009
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vol. 228
PL
W pracy przedstawiono metodę szacowania parametrów strukturalnych modelach prawdopodobieństwa wybranych zmiennych losowych. W metodzie wykorzystuje się ich dystrybuanty odwrotne, które przy zadanych wartościach empirycznych parametru p zmiennej losowej o rozkładzie Bemoulli’ego pozwalają wyznaczyć wartości zmiennej zależnej. Prowadzi to w konsekwencji do odpowiednich modeli liniowych, które umożliwiają uogólnioną metodą najmniejszych kwadratów wyznaczyć poszukiwane parametry strukturalne. Modele takie zostały zbudowane dla rozkładów: jednostajnego, normalnego, logistycznego i wykładniczego, przy czym w przypadku rozkładów jednostajnego i wykładniczego uwzględniono także ich parametry. Postępowanie to pozwoliło na sformułowanie ogólnej procedury estymacji parametrów rozważnych modeli.
EN
In the paper, on the selected distributions o f probability there were given models allowing for estimation of structural parameters by the generalized least squares method, by applying various types of function of the independent variable in models. It allowed a uniform perspective of the method of estimation of structural parameters and forecasting the value of parameter p, presented in the final part of the article.
4
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Application of Probit Models and Selected Discrimination Analysis Methods for Credit Decision Evaluation

100%
Żółtowski J., University of Łódź C. o. S. M.
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
|
2005
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vol. 194
PL
Obsługa kredytów konsumpcyjnych jest jednym z rodzajów działalności banków. Zdolność kredytowa klienta jest oceniana na podstawie złożonego przez niego wniosku. W pracy rozważany jest problem przewidywania, do której z dwóch grup klientów, posiadających zdolność kredytową lub nie (w ocenie banku), zostanie zaliczona osoba ubiegająca się o kredyt. Analizowane są tu możliwości zastosowania modeli probitowych oraz metod analizy dyskryminacyjnej wykorzystujących kwadratową funkcję dyskryminacyjną i zmienną dyskryminacyjną z próby. Przeprowadzona jest także ocena poprawności klasyfikacji danych z pewnego banku.
EN
Retail banking deals with servicing consumer credits and it constitutes one of the major banking activities. A customer applying for the credit fills in the application which is basis to evaluated of his creditworthiness. The paper considers the problem of evaluation to which of the two groups the person applying for a credit should be assigned to: a) those who possess the creditworthiness; b) those who do not possess the creditworthiness. It analyses the possibility of applying the probit models and the discrimination analysis methods using the quadratic and linear discrimination function. An evaluation of the correctness of the classification based on the real data from a commercial bank is conducted.
5
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Determinanty zatrudnienia nierejestrowanego w Polsce w okresach wysokiej i niskiej koniunktury

75%
Cichocki S., Tyrowicz J.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
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2011
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vol. 246
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issue 3
1-27
EN
The article examines changes in the determinants of unregistered employment in Poland during periods of high and low economic growth. Using Labor Force Survey data and probit models, the authors analyze the structure and determinants of unregistered employment in 2003 and 2008. In 2003 unemployment ran high, while in 2008 joblessness was relatively low and accompanied by high wage pressure. The authors look at two groups of workers in the context of unregistered employment: those officially unemployed and those officially employed but seeking to supplement their incomes by taking up jobs in the unregistered segment of the economy. After analyzing changes in basic demographic and socioeconomic variables, Cichocki and Tyrowicz conclude that unemployed individuals tend to take up jobs in the unregistered segment of the economy both when the labor market suffers from high unemployment and when wage pressure rises. Generally, the bargaining position of employees with regard to employers improved when the labor market revived and when the unregistered segment of the economy shrank in terms of both individual sectors and qualifications. Young unemployed people find it relatively easier to get informal work, the authors conclude, while no specific factors force young employees to look for jobs in the shadow economy. Theoretically, the tax-evading, unregistered segment of the economy could be expected to display pro-cyclical changes, the authors say, shrinking in times of fast economic growth and expanding in periods of poor macroeconomic trends. But in reality the shadow economy provides a considerable measure of flexibility to employers, as a result of which unregistered employment tends to display countercyclical behavior, according to Cichocki and Tyrowicz.
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