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Directions of Poland’s Energy Security Policy in the Natural Gas Sector

100%

Kamola-Cieślik M.

Polish Political Science Yearbook

2020

issue 1 (49)

67-84

Poland has insufficient natural gas resources to satisfy its needs. That is why it has been dependent on the imports of that raw material. One of the challenges facing the Polish government is limiting Poland’s dependency on Russian gas. The objective of the paper is to present the directions of the Polish government’s energy security policy in terms of natural gas in the years of 2015-2018. Particular attention was paid to the assumptions and the implementation of the government’s gas policy in terms of the situation in the European Union gas market. An attempt was made to answer the question: To what extent have the assumptions of policy of the government of the Law and Justice party regarding Poland’s gas security been realized? In an attempt to answer the question so formulated, the following methods were used in the study: a decision-making method, formal-legal method, statistical and comparative methods. On the grounds of the conducted research, it needs to be concluded that after 2015, as a result of the government’s policy, the imports of natural gas from the east to Poland were reduced with a simultaneous diversification of the direction from which this raw material was delivered. The resignation from the deliveries of Russian gas to Poland after 2022 will be possible thanks to putting Baltic Pipe gas pipeline into operation and raising the flow capacity of Świnoujście LNG terminal. The implementation of these investments will have a positive impact on the improvement of Poland’s gas security. Failure to launch the investments and an increase of gas consumption in Poland will make it necessary to conclude a short-term Polish-Russian agreement for imports of that fuel to Poland.

A new approach to avoiding cost overruns and implementation delays in future large projects in aerospace business

86%

Winter C.

Nauki o Zarządzaniu

2015

issue 4 (25)

125-144

Large Projects in Aerospace Business (LPAB) notoriously face significant delays and cost overruns. The starting point is: reduction of risk for both deviations between planned and actual cost and time would increase profitability of a project. That means, if project duration and volume could be predicted more precisely, the risk for delays and cost overruns would be reduced while profitability would be improved through allocating resources when and where they are actually needed. This questions the efficiency of presently applied planning methods to yield proper estimates for project volume and duration. The initial approach to this problem started off with learning curves and developed into parametric estimate models mainly for cost. Over decades it was a main attempt to make the models robust for technical progress and to increase flexibility with regard to different kind of aircraft but there were still significant deficiencies. This article introduces a new approach to overcome above deficiencies and the corresponding parametric estimate models to determine project volume and duration for future aircraft projects. The model uses the degree of new technologies applied (technical complexity) and the number of countries, suppliers and final assemblies (organizational complexity) as independent variables. The parameters of the regression analysis were determined by analysing 5 large aircraft projects (Boeing 787, Airbus A380, A350, A400M, Lockheed Martin F-35B and Eurofighter). As a result, the model meets the requirements of application in practice while its accuracy is still within the range of legacy models.

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Directions of Poland’s Energy Security Policy in the Natural Gas Sector

A new approach to avoiding cost overruns and implementation delays in future large projects in aerospace business