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Wpływ pandemii COVID-19 na światowy handel towarowy - lata 2020–2021

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Wieczorek P.

Kontrola Państwowa

2022

vol. 67

issue 4 (405)

117-141

In the situation of the COVID-19 pandemic, many principles have been questioned that previously provided the basis for the world’s economy, including the rule of locating production mainly in the so called low-cost countries, i.e. countries where labour costs are lower than in western states. Due to this long-lasting trend – which reflects the globalisation process and which is clearly visible in the economic policy of the western states – an important position of the countries of the Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, especially China, has been displayed. Following an intense inflow of foreign direct investments, as well as the accession to the World Trade Organisation in 2001, China has strengthened its economic position, and it soon started being referred to as “the world’s factory”. It is an accurate term, as nowadays one can hardly find a product that would not contain a Chinese added value, such as natural resources, materials, or sub-assemblies. However, the global supply chains established in this way, with a dominating position of China, have become less and less flexible, and more sensitive to disruptions on the international market – while alternative production and trade connections with providers from outside Asia have simultaneously become less and less important. Adverse consequences of stiff supply chains on ensuring stable operations of the economy in all its areas – from the global level to local businesses – have become evident after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The article presents these processes and provides potential scenarios for the development of the world’s trade.

W początkowym okresie pandemii sformułowano prognozy rozwoju sytuacji w światowym handlu towarowym na lata 2020–2021. Wskazywano na spodziewany głęboki spadek wymiany międzynarodowej, nasilenie protekcjonizmu handlowego w państwach, które dotkliwie odczuły skutki COVID-19, jak również na potrzebę podjęcia działań wzmacniających niezawodność światowych łańcuchów dostaw. W konsekwencji miało to prowadzić do osłabienia pozycji Chin i innych państw azjatyckich. Artykuł weryfikuje te tezy, w tym również w odniesieniu do Polski i jej miejsca w wymianie międzynarodowej.

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1 Kontrola Państwowa

1 Wieczorek P.

1 2022

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Wpływ pandemii COVID-19 na światowy handel towarowy - lata 2020–2021