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Role of internal variability of climate system in increase of air temperature in Wrocław (Poland) in the years 1951–2018

100%
Marsz A. A., Styszyńska A., Bryś K., Bryś T.
Quaestiones Geographicae
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2021
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vol. 40
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issue 3
109-124
EN
In the course of analysing the annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr), a rapid change of the thermal regime was found between 1987 and 1989. TWr increased by >1°C, a strong, statistically significant positive trend emerged. The analysis of processes showed that strong warming in the cold season of the year (December–March) occurred as a result of an increase in the NAO intensity and warming in the warm season because of increased sunshine duration in Wrocław (ShWr). Multiple regression analysis has shown that the winter NAO Hurrell’s index explains 15% of TWr variance, and the ShWr of the long-day (April–August) period 49%, whereas radiative forcing 5.9%. This indicates that the factors incidental to the internal variability of the climate system explain 64% of the TWr variability and the effect of increased CO2 concentration only ~6%. The reason for this rapid change of the thermal regime was a radical change in macro-circulation conditions in the Atlantic-European circular sector, which took place between 1988 and 1989. The heat, which is the cause of warming in Wrocław, comes from an increase in solar energy inflow (April–August) and also is transported to Europe from the North Atlantic surface by atmospheric circulation (NAO). These results indicate that the role of CO2 in shaping the contemporary temperature increase is overestimated, whereas the internal variability of the climate system is underestimated.
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An Analysis of Local Climate Effects: A Case Study of the Lviv International Airport

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Cherniak L., Radomska M.
Studia Periegetica
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2017
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vol. 17(1)
123-138
EN
The effect of aircraft emissions on the global climate is a serious long-term environmental issue faced by the aviation industry. As the number of passengers grows, so does the use of jet fuel and the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG). This may destabilize the world’s climatic systems, which will consequently lead to global, regional and local environmental, economic and social damage. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that aircrafts are currently responsible for 3.5 % of the total anthropogenic greenhouse effect. To avoid the negative consequences of climate change, it is necessary to fully understand factors affecting this problem locally and develop methods of mitigating airport climate effects. This article describes and analyses calculations of radiative forcing of aircraft emissions and the radiative impact of clouds in the surrounding area of the Lviv airport. The calculated values were verified against temperature data for the city and at the airport provided by meteorological authorities.
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