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This paper examines the effects of anticipated and unanticipated money supply shocks over the 1999─2013 period across several sectors of the Ukraine’s economy. It is found that the anticipated money supply shock contributes to output growth in agriculture, food processing and machine-building industries, with no impact for the steel industry. Unanticipated money shock is expansionary for the machine-building industry, while being restrictionary for agriculture. In general, our results reject the Monetary Neutrality Hypothesis (MNH).
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The article analyzes conditional beta convergence in the EU28 countries with the use of spatial econometrics techniques. We consider alternative structure of the spatial weight matrix based on economic distances. Basing on the spatial Durbin-Watson model, two spatial specifications are tested, which make use of the volume of international trade and the inverted GDP per capita differences between the considered objects. We confirm the existence of GDP convergence and show that the gravity-models-type logic is superior to the approach based on inverted geographic distances.
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This paper provides a look into what Lucas meant by the term ‘analogue systems’ and how he conceived making them useful. It is argued that any model with remarkable predictive success can be regarded as an analogue system, the term is thus neutral in terms of usefulness. To be useful Lucas supposed models to meet further requirements. These prerequisites are introduced in two steps in the paper. First, some properties of ‘useless’ Keynesian macroeconometric models come to the fore as contrasting cases. Second, it is argued that Lucas suggested two assumptions as the keys to usefulness for he conceived them as referring to genuine components of social reality and hence as true propositions. One is money as a causal instrument and the other is the choice-theoretic framework to describe the causal mechanisms underlying large-scale fluctuations. Extensive quotes from Lucas’s unpublished materials underpin the claims.
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The paper presents general idea of construction and estimation of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models. Models belonging to the class of DSGE combine in one specification the optimization behavior of consumers and producers with mechanisms that allow to model the nominal and real rigidities observed at the macroeconomic level. DSGE models are widely applied by financial institutions as a consequence of their ability to flexibly include and test alternative economic hypotheses and the existence of estimation methods. The article begins by reviewing main components of the theoretical model with discussion of the most important assumptions, which is followed by presentation of methods for solving rational expectation models and the Bayesian estimation of structural parameters.
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