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Rynek zbóż w Unii Europejskiej i jego wpływ na sytuację w Polsce

100%
Kalicki A.
Zagadnienia Doradztwa Rolniczego
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2010
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vol. 60
|
issue 1-2
34-51
EN
The decisive influence on scale of market boom of farming raw materials in years 2007-2008 year had first of all financial-speculative factors. Price records struck not only a cereal, also crude oil, metals or ores. After the period of rapid growth and slump follows usually the period of seek of new level of equilibrium, being characterized short, enough impetuous price variations. According to the American Agriculture Department, yield of cereals in the world (inclusive rice) in season 2009/2010 are estimated on 2,196 billions tone in face 2,231 bil. tone. the season earlier. Supply of grain will be however higher than in 2008/2009 -- the height with 2,592 bln tone to 2,641 bil. tone. Greater will be also closing stocks -- the height from first level 444,9 millions tone to 451,5 millions tone. The competition for marked will be exceptionally sharp also for smaller application on imported grain on the part of key-receivers. Many from these countries it noted as very good native yields. An additional factor having influence on the trade will be present crisis on financial markets. On the European Union market crucial actor to have influence on cereals market have interventional purchasing. Cheap cereals can count animations and improvements of profitability of meat and milk production. Many will be relative to demand on these products, so from the general business conditions. In stabilizing of the Polish market of cereals the more and more greater part can begin play biofuel and bioenergy especially conditioned of systematical stint of all forms of interventionism on the Union cereals market. In Poland their production continually finds on very early stage of development.
PL
Decydujący wpływ na skalę hossy na rynku surowców rolnych w latach 2007-2008 r. miały przede wszystkim czynniki finansowo-spekulacyjne. Rekordy cenowe biły nie tylko zboża, także ropa naftowa, metale czy kruszce. Po okresie szybkiego wzrostu oraz spadku cen następuje zazwyczaj okres szukania nowego poziomu równowagi, charakteryzujący się krótkookresowymi, dość gwałtownymi wahaniami cen. Według Amerykańskiego Departamentu Rolnego, zbiory zbóż na świecie (łącznie z ryżem) w sezonie 2009/2010 szacowane są na 2,196 mld ton wobec 2,231 mld ton sezon wcześniej. Podaż ziarna będzie jednak wyższa niż w 2008/2009 – wzrost z 2,592 mld ton do 2,641 mld ton. Większe będą też zapasy końcowe – wzrost z poziomu początkowego 444,9 mln ton do 451,5 mln ton. Konkurencja o rynki zbytu będzie wyjątkowo ostra również ze względu na mniejsze zapotrzebowanie na importowane ziarno ze strony kluczowych odbiorców. Wiele z tych krajów zanotowało bowiem bardzo dobre, rodzime zbiory. Dodatkowym czynnikiem mającym wpływ na handel będzie obecny kryzys na rynkach finansowych. Na rynku Unii Europejskiej bardzo istotnym czynnikiem mogącym mieć wpływ na rynek zbóż pozostaje skup interwencyjny. Tanie zboża mogą mieć znaczenie dla ożywienia i poprawy opłacalności produkcji mięsa i mleka. Wiele będzie zależało od popytu na te produkty, a więc od ogólnej koniunktury gospodarczej. W stabilizowaniu polskiego rynku zbóż coraz większą rolę mogą zacząć odgrywać biopaliwa i bioenergia zwłaszcza w warunkach systematycznego ograniczania wszelkich form interwencjonizmu na unijnym rynku zbóż. W Polsce ich produkcja wciąż znajduje na bardzo wczesnym etapie rozwoju.
2
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Podstawowe cechy rynku zbóż w Polsce przed akcesją i po akcesji do Unii Europejskiej (1995–2012)

61%
Czyżewski A., Czakowski D.
Przegląd Zachodniopomorski
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2014
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issue 3/2
69-79
EN
This article attempts to assess interdependence between the evolution of the price level, the volume and value of production and the amount of costs and revenues in the grain market in Poland. Changes in effi ciency have been expressed by the coeffi cients cost-effectiveness, productivity, and effi ciency of grain production in Poland. The range covered a long period of time, i.e. 18 years. The survey was conducted from the perspective of the two sub-periods. First, the pre-accession took over the years 1995–2003, the second concluded in the years 2004–2012. This made it possible to give a comparative considerations. For the whole period, and separately for the two sub-periods were performed correlation analysis, which indicated the most important associations between the variables occurring in the grain market.
3

Cereal Market before and after the Integration of Poland into the European Union. Dynamics of Supply and Demand Correlations / Rynek zbóż przed i po integracji Polski z Unią Europejską. Dynamika relacji popytowo-podażowych

51%
Czakowski D.
Management
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2013
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vol. 17
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issue 1
405-419
EN
The purpose of this publication is to show some changes in supply and demand correlations on the cereal market after Poland’s accession into the European Union. To meet the above objective there were compared some data concerning the volume of domestic cereal production and its cereal species structure, foreign trade balance, domestic consumption and purchase price levels. The formation of the above mentioned items was analyzed for two periods. The first one covered the years 1995-2003 whereas the second one was from 2004 to 2012. This allowed us to make some interesting comparisons through the prism of Poland’s accession to the EU. Additionally, long time series increased their reliability. To study supply and demand correlations, there were applied various statistical methods including dynamic indexes, trend models, analyses of correlation and various regression. A comprehensive analysis of the gathered research material allowed us to answer the question about some quantitative and qualitative changes which took place on the cereal market after Poland’s accession to the EU.
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