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PL
The article discusses the findings of the multilevel government school (MLG) which has been advancing since the beginning of the 21st century, studying regional elections. The concept defining regional elections as second-order elections has been recognized as critical, although it is reformulated by the MLG school to respond to changes in modern regional politics in Europe. Important recent political developments include the entrenchment of regional governments, the increase in the number of electoral appointments, expanded competencies of voters, the rise of non-state-wide parties and the empowerment of sub-national organizational levels of parties. Current MLG research focuses on identifying and explaining the cases where second-order election predictions do not appear to hold for regional elections, identifying states where it is still the case and, finally, identifying factors that increase or decrease this effect. An interesting theoretical development regarding regional elections as second-order elections is that this concept is supplemented and enriched by the theories of regional authority and territorial cleavages. The final part of the article reviews studies on regional elections and the applicability of the second-order concept to Central and Eastern European countries.
EN
The aim of the article is to analyse the determinants of electoral support for the Alternative for Germany, which gained 7.04% of the vote in the 2014 European Parliament elections. AfD is considered a right-wing populist protest party of a primarily Eurosceptic orientation. However, there has been no in-depth analysis of its electoral success based on statistical methods. The territories of former East and West Germany have been selected as unit of analysis, since different patterns of electoral behaviour can be expected to play a role in former Eastern Bloc and Western countries. We analyse voters’ political preferences and the question whether the success of the AfD could be better explained with reference to protest voting or issue voting. We conclude that while in West Germany both protest voting and issue voting can explain the success of the AfD, the priority of issue voting over protest voting was pronounced in East Germany, as the immigration issue proved to be a very strong and significant predictor of electoral support for the AfD. Thus, we once again confirm that differences in individual voting behaviour between West and East persist even a quarter century after the unification of Germany. It is thus apparent that the so-called Iron Curtain continues to function as a cleavage in contemporary German politics.
PL
Artykuł omawia występowanie głosów nieważnych w wyborach do sejmików województw w Polsce w roku 2014 i w roku 2010. Analiza regresji wyników wyborów zagregowanych na poziomie gmin pokazuje, że wzorce występowania zjawiska głosów nieważnych w Polsce nie różnią się znacząco pomiędzy rokiem 2010 a 2014. Modele wyjaśniające odsetek głosów nieważnych w wyborach władz regionalnych wskazują na istnienie stosunkowo silnego efektu zbroszurowania karty wyborczej, który zwiększył odsetek głosów nieważnych – w 2010 roku jedynie w województwie mazowieckim, a w 2014 roku – w całym kraju. Głosy nieważne w wyborach regionalnych padają częściej w małych społecznościach lokalnych, położonych peryferyjnie, tam gdzie szczególnie zaznacza się zjawisko „wybiórczej mobilizacji” – tzn. gdzie wyborcy są motywowani przede wszystkim do wyborów władz gminy, a w mniejszym stopniu – do wyborów władz wyższych szczebli.
EN
The article describes the phenomenon of large shares of invalid ballots in regional elections held in 2010 and 2014 in Poland, simultaneously with municipal and county elections. The regression analysis (conducted with use of data disaggregated at the municipal level) demonstrates that the patterns of invalid votes’ distribution in 2010 and 2014 were similar. The models indicate a relatively strong impact of ballot card design. In 2014 a brochure ballot card was used in all regions; in 2010 brochure was used only in Mazowsze region, while in other regions voters used single-page ballot card. The analysis also demonstrates that invalid votes in regional elections were casted more frequently in small, peripheral communities where voters were mobilized to participate primarily in the election of local, not regional, councils.
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