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Policy-oriented inference and the analyst-client cooperation. An example from small-area statistics

100%
Longford N. T.
Statistics in Transition new series
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2015
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vol. 16
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issue 1
65–82
EN
We show on an application to small-area statistics that efficient estimation is not always conducive to good policy decisions because the established inferential procedures have no capacity to incorporate the priorities and preferences of the policy makers and the related consequences of incorrect decisions. A method that addresses these deficiencies is described. We argue that elicitation of the perspectives of the client (sponsor) and their quantification are essential elements of the analysis because different estimators (decisions) are appropriate for different perspectives. An example of planning an intervention in a developing country’s districts with high rate of illiteracy is described. The example exposes the deficiencies of the general concept of efficiency and shows that the criterion for the quality of an estimator has to be formulated specifically for the problem at hand. In the problem, the established small-area estimators perform poorly because the minimum mean squared error is an inappropriate criterion.
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Proposals of European citizens for reviving the future of shrinking areas

100%
Besana F.
Quaestiones Geographicae
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2021
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vol. 40
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issue 4
15-28
EN
Shrinkage, depopulation and the related structural decline threaten development trajectories of more than a quarter of European territories from the present until 2050. In April 2021, the European Commission has launched the Conference on the Future of Europe to involve citizens and players beyond the traditional actors in shaping future policy agendas. The initiative consists of a wide-scale citizen engagement policy offering them a digital framework to actively contribute to the most relevant debates from April to December 2021. Given that shrinkage is a neglected theme in traditional policy arenas, this article examines the proposals of European citizens for reviving the future of shrinking areas. Through content analysis, the article highlights a limited relative presence of shrinkage in the Conference debate. Nevertheless, the results offer insights into the thematic concentration and the affinity of shrinkage with the most popular policy debates. The article also discusses the content of citizens’ ideas for the future of shrinking areas, thus offering concrete proposals that may fuel the definition of future policy agendas.
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