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EN
One of the crucial things for achieving and maintaining sustainable tourism development in a destination is to create a positive interaction between residents and foreign tourists. The quality of interaction between tourists and residents contributes to both tourists experience and perception of the visited destination and acceptance and tolerance of tourists by residents. Thus, the aim of the study is to analyse influence of tourist’s behaviour on resident’s perception of tourists, their acceptance and social interaction between them in the destination.The research is conducted among residents of Belgrade, Novi Sad and Sombor during the year of 2010. The results showed that cultural incidents are very important for the acceptance of tourists by the local residents and that perception of tourist’s behaviour was significantly affected by socio-demographic characteristics of residents.
EN
The article discusses major features of censuses, focusing particularly on the recent census of the population of Poland (National Census of Population and Housing 2011, NSP 2011). Description of the census is preceded by a general historical background and by a presentation of the context created by recommendations concerning population censuses provided by international bodies, as well as experiences and practices implemented by various countries. Usefulness of census data on population is analyzed, as well as their advantages and disadvantages and prospects for the future. While the first part of the article discussing the characteristics of the NSP 2011 focuses on the official assumptions underlying the census, adopted methodology, etc., the second part attempts at a critical assessment of these assumptions and of the quality of census data.
PL
Artykuł ukazuje podstawowe cechy spisów ludności, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem spisu ludności Polski w 2011 roku (NSP 2011). Charakterystyka badania spisowego poprzedzona została krótkim rysem historycznym oraz przedstawieniem kontekstu, jaki stanowią zalecenia międzynarodowych organizacji, dotyczące przeprowadzania spisów ludności, a tak- że doświadczenia i praktyka różnych państw w tym zakresie. Dokonano analizy użyteczności informacji uzyskiwanych o ludności w spisach, wad i zalet badania oraz zarysowano perspektywy na przyszłość. W pierwszej części, stanowiącej omówienie NSP 2011, artykuł koncentruje się głównie na oficjalnych założeniach badania spisowego, przyjętych zasadach metodologicznych itd., w drugiej części podjęto próbę krytycznej oceny tych założeń i jakości pozyskanych w spisie informacji.
PL
W artykule oceniamy skutki demograficzne rządowego programu „Rodzina 500 Plus” (500+) za pomocą Bayesowskich Strukturalnych Szeregów Czasowych (ang. Bayesian Structural Time Series; BSTS). Stwierdzamy, że program od jego wprowadzenia do końca 2017 roku w skali miesiąca zwiększył urodzenia o 4,5%, co przełożyło się na średnio 1420 dodatkowych urodzeń w każdym miesiącu. Co oznacza, że jedno urodzenie wiązało się z wydatkowaniem prawie 1,4 mln złotych w ramach programu w tym czasie. W połowie 2019 roku, czyli w momencie rozszerzenia świadczeń na pierwsze dzieci, program nie wykazywał już wpływu na urodzenia. 500+ do końca 2017 roku nie wpłynął na decyzje o posiadaniu pierwszego dziecka. Program wywołał najwięcej urodzeń piątych, trzecich, czwartych i wreszcie drugich. Efekty programu są słabsze w porównaniu do interwencji pronatalistycznych w innych państwach, przy relatywnie wysokich kosztach. Zaproponowany szacunek efektywności programu w przeliczeniu na jedno urodzenie daje w przyszłości możliwość oceny kolejnej interwencji w tym zakresie.
EN
In this article, we evaluate the demographic effects of the Polish government “Family 500 Plus” program (500+) using Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS). We find that the program increased births by 4.5% per month from its introduction to the end of 2017, which translated into an average of 1,420 additional births each month. Meaning that one birth was associated with spending nearly 1.4 million under the program during that time. By mid-2019, when benefits were extended to first children, the program no longer showed an impact on births. 500+ did not affect decisions to have first child by the end of 2017. The program induced most fifth, third, fourth, and finally second births. The program’s effects are weaker compared to pronatalist interventions in other countries, at a relatively high cost. The proposed estimate of the program’s effectiveness per birth provides an opportunity to evaluate another pronatalist intervention in the future.
EN
The article presents the causes and spatial differences of infant mortality in eastern Prussia densely populated by the Polish, and the changes that phenomenon was subject to. The research has been carried out mainly on the numeric data juxtaposed and published by Dr Behr-Pinnow, on official statistical material (Preußische Statistik, Statistikdes Deutschen Reichs, Veröffentlichungen des Kaiserlichen Gesundheitsamts) and on unpublished archival material, first of all reports of Regierungsbezirk presidents. Infant mortality has been analysed at three levels of data aggregation: provinces, Regierungsbezirke, counties (Kreise). In the research the following devices have been used: coefficients, averaging of several years, (dis)similarity rates of structures (the reference standard – Regierungsbezirk Aurich), weighted linear regression, cartograms (grouping based on median absolute deviation). The article depicts the tendency for infant mortality in the ‘Polish’ Regierungsbezirke of Prussia, which deteriorated at the beginning of the 20th century, and a significant spatial diversification of the phenomenon in question, which was related to the way of farming (especially in the region of Żuławy Wiślane and the Vistula valley); however, the research has not provided any conclusive evidence of a link between a high infant mortality rate in the area in question and the socio-professional structure, the level of affluence or the infrastructure. On the other hand, thanks to linear regression models it has been proved that the intensity of infant mortality in counties depended on the ethnic composition to a significant degree (the faith did notplay any role). Parallel to an increase of the Polish- and Kashubian-speaking populations (those populations – it is worth mentioning – usually enjoyed lower socio-economic status compared to their German-speaking neighbours) the infant mortality rate was generally decreasing. It was at the lowest level in Greater Poland, in the counties of Kościan, Gostyn and Śmigiel (where the dominant population was Polish, Catholic and rural). All in all, it is justified to say that the Polish- and Kashubian-speaking populations that were less advanced in demographic transformation compared to their German-speaking neighbours, even before institutionalising social welfare, provided better care for babies and guaranteed a lower infant mortality rate, first of all thanks to the general and longer breastfeeding.
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