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Warming and cooling of the Earth's climate and their causes

100%
Boryczka J., Szmajda D.
Miscellanea Geographica. Regional Studies on Development
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2006
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vol. 12
31-41
EN
The progressing wanning of the Earth's climate is mainly caused by natural factors, that is, the increasing solar activity and the decreasing volcanic activity on the Earth. The aspects which testify to the predominance o f natural factors include: synchronous changes in the average air temperature in the Northern Hemisphere in the years 1856-2002, the average consecutive 11-year Wolf numbers and the location of the mass centres o f the four largest planets. Natural causes o f the climate warming are corroborated by the synchronicity o f changes in the carbon dioxide concentration and paleotemperature in the last 450,000 years, revealed on the basis o f an analysis o f the ice core in Antarctica. Periods o f climate warming occur every 100,000 years and are caused by an increased solar radiation in high latitudes, resulting from changes in the Earth's orbit and the inclination of the Earth axis (according to the popular Milanković theory).
2
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Tendencies in climate changes in Poland and Ukraine during the last centuries and their causes

100%
Boryczka J., Stopa-Boryczka M., Mucha B., Miłaszewska M.
Miscellanea Geographica. Regional Studies on Development
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2008
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vol. 13
77-88
EN
The paper describes tendencies in changes of air temperature in Poland and Ukraine on the basis of a long series of measurements made in Warsaw (1779-2000), Cracow (1826-2000), Lviv (1824-2002) and Kiev (1812-2002). Air temperature in these cities in the years 1825-2002 is positively correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index. Values of the r correlation coefficient are much higher in winter months than during the summer and they decrease with distance from the Atlantic Ocean. Of interest are air temperature changes in Warsaw, Cracow, Lviv and Kiev in the XIXth -XXth centuries together with forecasts until the year 2100. Significant dependence of the climate of Poland and Ukraine on the NAO index stems from similar temperature cycles and the eight-year, eleven-year and one-hundred-year NAO index. Forecast credibility results from the similar periodicity of air temperature, the NAO index and solar activity. The forecast mean annual temperature values for 2001-2100 were obtained from the interference of statistically important temperature cycles, determined by the sinusoidal regression method.
3
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The dependency between annual air temperature and solar activity. A case study of Warsaw in 1951-2010.

100%
Boryczka J., Stopa-Boryczka M., Kossowska-Cezak U., Wawer J.
Miscellanea Geographica. Regional Studies on Development
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2017
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vol. 21
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issue 3
EN
The paper demonstrates a dependency between the annual average daily air temperature course (cycle) in Warsaw and the profile of annual solar activity linked to rotation (with a period of 25-31 days). Waves of cold (ΔT <0) or heat (ΔT≥ 0) were defined as ΔT deviations of daily average temperature (T) using a regression sinusoid f (t) with a period of 365 days. Cold waves were found to generally occur at times of low daily average solar activity (relative to 60-year average), while hot waves tended to coincide with high Wolf numbers. The cycles of the variables were derived using the sinusoid regression method (Boryczka 1998). The maximum sinusoid regression of the annual air-temperature cycle T is delayed by nearly one month vis-à-vis the maximum declination of the Sun. The maximum of the regression sinusoid of daily average Wolf numbers (W) was delayed from the maximum declination by more than two months.
4
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Cyclic temperature and precipitation fluctuations in Poland in the 19th-21st centuries

84%
Boryczka J., Stopa-Boryczka M., Szmajda D.
Miscellanea Geographica. Regional Studies on Development
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2006
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vol. 12
43-53
EN
The objective of the work is to determine the periodicity and trends of change in air temperature and precipitation in Poland in the time period of the 18th-20th centuries, together with the forecast for the 21st century. There are interesting diagrams of the temporal changes of solar activity and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indicator, with the forecast reaching the year 2100. The forecasts were obtained on the basis of interpretations of the Wolf number and NAO indicator cycles, determined with the method of ”regression sinusoids”. The fluctuations of the air temperature and precipitations during w inter in Warsaw and in Cracow are closely correlated.
5
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Cyclic changes of climate in Europe during the last millenium according to dendrological data

84%
Boryczka J., Stopa-Boryczka M., Bijak S., Miłaszewska M.
Miscellanea Geographica. Regional Studies on Development
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2008
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vol. 13
57-66
EN
The paper discusses periodic climate changes in Europe determined on the basis of dendrochronological data dating back one thousand years. In tree-ring width sequences of trees growing in Poland there are approximately 8-, 11-, 100- and 180- year periods. The tree-ring widths of oaks growing in Poland for the last centuries are characterised, without any significant amplitude, by 8- and 11-year periods (Tab. 1). In turn, chronologies of pine, spruce, larch, oak and fir growing in Europe are characterised by 100- and 180-year periods (Tab. 2). Cycles of dendrochronological variables approximate cycles of air temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation NAO as well as those of solar activity. The forecast of annual growth (ring width) for 2001-2100 was calculated by interference of the tree-ring width cycles determined by the sinusoidal regression method. Because of much longer empirical sequences of specific periods, the credibility of forecasts for treering widths is greater than that for air temperature.
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