The paper presents kinds of risk an insurer is exposed to. Current Polish regulation concerning capital adequacy norms are presented, together with the measures used in insurer’s solvency analysis. Furthermore four basic approaches to regulatory solvency evaluation are characterized. The paper also generally presents the construction of a new approach – Solvency II – which will be in force in EU since 2012.
Being solvent determines whether or not an enterprise exists in a market economy. A lack of solvency is therefore one reason businesses fail. In the economics literature, beside the notion of solvency there are also the ideas of financial liquidity and the ability to pay. Some authors identify these notions as being interchangeable, while others differentiate them, ascribing to them different essential ranges and a different character of mutual relation. This paper explains the meaning of these notions and also describes the mutual relations between them.
This paper develops a simple deterministic model to analyze how the profitability of bank operations infuences the solvency of a banking firm. The results imply that the solvency ratio is directly related to the net interest margin (the "bread and butter" of bank profitability) and inversely related to the liquidity ratio. This model has several implications on the design of banking regulations: i) profitability has to be treated as "marginal" solvency, ii) a profitable bank can operate sustainably even with a low level of equity capital; iii) the supervisory framework has to be able to recognize any measure of earnings level, its trends, stability and quality; and finally iv) the frequency of audit trials has to be as high as possible.
The article discusses approaches to managing economic efficiency of agrarian enterprises and investigated the role of reporting financial information to management efficiency and solvency of agrarian enterprises.
The main purpose of this paper is to identify and characterise the factors of uncertainty in forecasting the (in)solvency of a pension system based on the non-financial defined contribution model (NDC) and to evaluate the forecasting function of automatic balance mechanisms (ABM). The study is theoretical and empirical. It dismisses the hypothesis of automatic balancing of the NDC model, which justifies the forecasting of its (in)solvency. The paper discusses the problem of uncertainty in the long-term forecasting of the (in)solvency of a pension system and shows the rationale of applying ABM. It has an important forecasting function and support a long-term financial balance in the NDC model. The empirical part of the paper discusses, using a case study, the ABM-based principles of indexation in Sweden, considered to be exemplary in literature. They are juxtaposed to the principles of indexation under the Polish 1st pillar functioning without ABM and are detached from the changes in the economic and demographic conditions of the pension system.
Theoretical background: The sovereign creditworthiness and solvency in the context of the pandemic and war crises is one of the biggest challenges that the modern world and the financial market face. It has a key impact on the basic economic indicators, including the price of debt incurred by individual countries and, thus, the profitability of debt securities. The COVID-19 pandemic, which began at the turn of 2019 and 2020, and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine which started on 24 February 2022, have strongly impacted the level of debt of European states and other countries of the world. The energy crisis, which is currently growing, is also taking its toll on the main economic indicators. International credit rating agencies are institutions that have been analysing the sovereign creditworthiness and solvency and individual business entities for many decades. At times, their activities have been the subject of criticism, but their place in the global financial market seems unthreatened and the results of their work still constitute the basic indicator of creditworthiness and solvency evaluation. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to present issues related to the impact of war and pandemic crises on the sovereign creditworthiness and solvency and also the position, role and decisions of international rating agencies. Due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic, these are very important issues that have a real impact on the economic condition of individual countries as well as the standard of living of citizens. This article focuses on these elements of the contemporary reality. Research methods: The subject matter and purpose of the article have been illustrated against the background of current theoretical knowledge, historical research and the latest analyses of key economic indicators, such as inflation or bond yields. The study of the impact of wars on sovereign ratings was empirical. To visualise the historical scale of the wars and pandemics destruction, in the analytical part of the study, statistical data has been re-scaled to the current global population. Main findings: The research conducted in this article has indicated that crises related to a pandemic and war have a negative impact on the sovereign creditworthiness and solvency. Historical studies of armed conflicts and pandemics have shown that the former had a significantly greater impact on inflation and bond yields. For example, the level of inflation started to drop within one year after the end of the wars and almost immediately after the end of the pandemic. The same applied to bond yields. Of course, this was directly reflected in the evaluations of international rating agencies. The issues discussed in the article are of practical application, because the on-going war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic have had a very large impact on the global economy and the financial condition of individual countries. Our research also shows that the war hit the ratings of sovereign countries directly involved in the war, while other countries’ ratings (possibly threatened by aggression from Russia in the future – e.g. EU countries) remain stable.
The purpose of the article is to analyse the impact of various financial ratios used to evaluate a company’s liquidity and solvency on the rates of return on the shares of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. In the context of developing countries, the relationship between liquidity and solvency on the one hand and the return on equity on the other is still not clear. Poland is the most economically developed country in Central and Eastern Europe. A thorough analysis is necessary to take appropriate action and introduce adequate regulations in the country, as well as to create the foundation for researching other economies in this region. In addition, this article includes new estimators that have not yet been taken into account but that may affect the rates of return, which will contribute to the literature on the subject and to the development of knowledge on the volatility of returns on shares. In the study, we have calculated the time-varying beta coefficients of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) model and analysed portfolios based on three liquidity ratios and four solvency ratios, which were computed using the CAPM, Fama–French and Carhart models. The empirical study described in the article focuses on companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in the period from 1 January 1999 to 30 June 2013. Regressions were estimated by the least-squares method and by quantile regression. Based on the results, it was found that listed companies at risk of bankruptcy are able to meet their short-term liabilities. Liquidity and solvency measured by financial ratios significantly affect the sensitivity of the rate of return on shares to the risk factors expressed in the CAPM, Fama––French and Carhart models.
This article addresses the issue of the specificity and significance of the distribution of net cash flows from operating, investing and financing activities in determining of entities financial condition, especially in times of economic crisis. The author’s subject of interest is the variety of entity performance initial evaluation on the base of sectional streams of net cash flows. In the article the author presents results of the research based on polish listed companies cash flows, in the years 1995–2010 and provides initial conclusions from the study.
Pursuant to the Act,The insurance company shall have at its disposal a proper amount of reserves connected with an insurance premium, which shall suffice to cover the insurer's liabilities on account of reimbursement of future benefits. Methods of calculating mathematical reserves in traditional insurance may be found in a classical actuarial literature according to which a reserve is calculated as an actuarial value of accumulated future money flows including the risk of death and the change of money value in time, that is the so-called actuarial risk. Insurance companies offering complex insurance products such as life insurance with additional options, among other things, with the ADBs (Accelerated Death Benefits), ALIs (Acceleration Life Insurance), AI (Accident Insurance) and ADIs (Accidental Death Insurance) option, pursuant to SOLVENCY II ought to take into consideration in their calculations also an additional aspect of risk arising from extended actuarial risk which is covered. In this article by combining a financial and insurance attitude, calculation of reserves for a life insurance with additional option of the ADBs, ALIs and ADIs-type is made, which is determined as a proper conditional expected value with allowance for an extended actuarial risk and the impact of additional options on their amount is examined.
PL
Zgodnie z ustawą Towarzystwo ubezpieczeniowe powinno dysponować odpowiednią wysokością rezerw związanych ze składką ubezpieczeniową, które wystarczą na pokrycie zobowiązań ubezpieczyciela z tytułu wypłaty przyszłych świadczeń. Metody obliczania rezerw matematycznych w tradycyjnych ubezpieczeniach można znaleźć w klasycznej literaturze aktuarialnej według, której rezerwę oblicza się jako wartość aktuarialną zakumulowanych przyszłych przepływów pieniężnych uwzględniając ryzyko śmierci i zmianę wartości pieniądza w czasie czyli tzw. ryzyko aktuarialne. Firmy ubezpieczeniowe oferujące złożone produkty ubezpieczeniowe jakimi są ubezpieczenia na życie z opcjami dodatkowymi m.in z opcją ADBs (AcceleratedDeathBenefits), ALIs (Acceleration Life Insurance) i ADIs (AccidentalDeathInsurance), zgodnie z SOLVENCY II powinny uwzględniać w kalkulacjach również dodatkowy aspekt ryzyka wynikający z rozszerzonego ryzyka aktuarialnego objętego ochroną ubezpieczeniową W artykule łącząc podejście finansowe i ubezpieczeniowe przeprowadzono kalkulację rezerw dla ubezpieczenia na życie z opcją dodatkową typu ADBs, ALIs i ADIs którą wyznaczono jako odpowiednią warunkową wartość oczekiwaną z uwzględnieniem rozszerzonego ryzyka aktuarialnego oraz zbadano wpływ dodatkowych opcji na ich wysokość.
Ryzyko płynności i wypłacalności są ze sobą powiązane, ale często rozpatrywane oddzielnie w makroostrożnościowych testach warunków skrajnych. Ignorowanie interakcji między ryzykiem płynności i wypłacalności prowadzi do niedoszacowania ryzyka banku i systemu finansowego. Rodzi to poważne konsekwencje ekonomiczne i finansowe w przypadku znaczącego pogorszenia się warunków zewnętrznych. Wnioski z przeprowadzonego badania rozszerzają obecny stan wiedzy na temat interakcji pomiędzy ryzykiem płynności i wypłacalności. Wskazują one, że banki, wzmacniając pozycję kapitałową, mogą ograniczyć koszty finansowania pożyczkowego. Jest to szczególnie ważne w kontekście rosnących wymogów kapitałowych, jak również konieczności spełnienia wymogu MREL. Brak uwzględnienia efektu spadku kosztu kapitału obcego na skutek redukcji dźwigni finansowej może prowadzić do przeszacowania kosztu reform w sektorze bankowym.
EN
Even though liquidity and solvency risks are deeply intertwined, they are often examined separately in macroprudential stress tests. By overlooking the interaction between liquidity and solvency we underestimate the risk both with regard to a particular bank and the financial system. This can precipitate severe economic and financial consequences in the event of a significant deterioration of external conditions. The conclusions from the conducted study expand current state of the art on the interlinkages between liquidity and solvency risks. They indicate that by strengthening the capital position banks can reduce the cost of debt financing. This is particularly paramount in the context of the growing capital requirements stipulated by Basel III and the need to meet the MREL requirement. Failure to take into account a decrease in the cost of capital, resulting from leverage reduction, often leads to overestimation of the costs resulting from the banking sector reforms.
Ustawa z dnia 15 września 2015 r. o działalności ubezpieczeniowej i reasekuracyjnej wprowadziła szereg przepisów mających wpływ na rachunkowość i sprawozdawczość zakładów ubezpieczeń. Zagadnienia te dotyczą w szczególności m.in.: wprowadzenia odrębnych zasad rachunkowości dla celów statutowych oraz dla celów wypłacalności, nowych zasad sprawozdawczości dla celów wypłacalności, uregulowania sposobu ustalania wartości godziwej rezerw techniczno-ubezpieczeniowych, nowych zasad wypłaty odszkodowania oraz zdefiniowania uprawnionych z umowy ubezpieczenia.
EN
The Act of 15 September 2015 on the activity of insurance and reinsurance introduced a number of regulations having an impact on accounting and reporting by insurance undertakings. These provisions concern, in particular, a variety of issues, namely: the introduction of separate accounting rules for the purposes of statutory objectives and for the purposes of solvency, the new reporting rules for the purposes of solvency, the regulation how to determine the fair value of insurance technical reserves, the new rules for the payment of compensation and the definition of beneficiaries under the contract of insurance.
The global insurance market is undergoing deep and dramatic change. The insurance business is more global than ever. The European Union has become the largest single insurance market in the world, with a new integrated set of rules effective 2016. The financial crisis has brought about new approaches to capital and prudential regulation in general, especially with respect to systemic risk and systemically important financial institutions. These new developments lead towards greater globalization of insurance. But the United States market remains a singular one with different regulation structure than the rest of the world. We ask if recent attempts for greater unity of the EU and the U.S. market proposed under the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) can bring greater convergence and unity between these two markets. We propose that a purely top-down approach may lead to significant friction with the existing structures and traditions, and a more evolutionary approach is more likely to succeed in creating a more efficient global insurance market.
PL
Na globalnym rynku ubezpieczeń dokonuje się proces głębokich i znaczących zmian. Ubezpieczenia nabrały charakteru globalnego bardziej niż kiedykolwiek w historii. Unia Europejska jest największym jednolitym rynkiem ubezpieczeń, zwłaszcza w obliczu wprowadzenia jednolitego systemu prawa i nadzoru w ramach dyrektywy Wypłacalność II w 2016 r. Kryzys finansowy spowodował głębokie zmiany w nadzorze instytucji finansowych, zwłaszcza w kwestii ryzyka systemowego i koncepcji systemowo ważnych instytucji finansowych. Wszystkie te zmiany prowadzą do dalszej globalizacji instytucji finansowych, w tym ubezpieczeń. Ale Stany Zjednoczone Ameryki Północnej nadal są bardzo odmiennym od reszty świata rynkiem ubezpieczeniowym. W artykule autor zadaje pytanie, czy zbliżenie europejskiego i amerykańskiego rynku ubezpieczeniowego, proponowane w ramach Transatlantyckiego Partnerstwa w Dziedzinie Handlu i Inwestycji, jest możliwe i realne. Obecna struktura i tradycja obu rynków czyni odgórnie narzucone partnerstwo trudnym do wprowadzenia. Wskazane jest raczej podejście stopniowej harmonizacji bez niepotrzebnych szoków dla istniejących struktur i tradycji.
The goal of this study is to identify empirically how non-traditional activities affect directly the risk profiles and profitability of the banking sector. Through a dataset that covers 2678 European banks spanning the period 1996–2011 and the methodology of panel regression, the empirical findings document that investment banks have a negative effect on systemic risk in the banking sector. To show the heterogeneity of systemic risk determinants, the study sample was divided according to the economic development of a country into two groups: advanced and developing countries. We examine the implications of banks’ activity and risk-taking that manifest themselves as spreading and growing instability in the banking system. Then we explore the implications of the interaction between banking risk and structural, macroeconomic and financial market determinants. The findings have implications for both bank risk management and regulators. This paper advances the agenda of making macroprudential policy operational.
Celem badania jest identyfikacja słabości bezpieczeństwa długu w krajach Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej oraz określenie wyzwań i zagrożeń dla bezpieczeństwa długu gospodarek narodowych i regionu. Aby osiągnąć ten cel, zastosowano ogólne i szczegółowe metody badawcze, w tym metody historyczne i logiczne, analizę i syntezę, analizę strukturalną i funkcjonalną, uogólnienie i abstrakcję, podejście systematyczne, klasyfikację i metody statystyczne. Okazuje się, że sytuacja z papierami dłużnymi w regionie jest dość kontrowersyjna. Średnie wskaźniki zadłużenia zewnętrznego państw Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej znajdują się w strefie niebezpiecznej, natomiast średnia wypłacalność jest na stosunkowo bezpiecznym poziomie. Analiza wskaźników zadłużenia zewnętrznego i wypłacalności pokazuje, że grupa państw Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej jest bardzo zróżnicowana pod względem poziomu bezpieczeństwa zadłużenia krajów.
EN
The study aims to identify the debt security weaknesses in the CEE countries and determine challenges and threats to the debt security of national economies and the CEE region. To achieve this goal, general and specific research methods have been used, including historical and logical methods, analysis and synthesis, structural and functional analysis, generalization and abstraction, a systematic approach, classification, and statistical methods. It is found out that the situation with debt security in the CEE region is quite controversial. The average external debt indicators of the CEE countries are in the unsafe zone, while the average solvency is at a relatively safe level. The analysis of external indebtedness and solvency indicators shows that the CEE group is highly heterogeneous regarding the level of countries’ debt security. Despite some improvement in the debt security of CEE economies during 2017–2019, the prospects for the development of the debt situation are rather vague. It is due to the growing impact of external challenges and threats to the debt security of the region, including the deterioration of the global economic environment and global recession, increase in credit risks and contraction in the international lending, global economic and political imbalances, and policy divergence, growing government spending on solving problems caused by the COVID-19 and corresponding pressure on public budgets, the general growth of global debt. Given the high heterogeneity of CEE countries in terms of current debt security, the manifestation of global challenges in each national economy can be rather diverse.
Due to overall importance special attention is paid to the theoretical and practical analysis of the performance of small independent retailers. Considering that, this paper analyzes the specifics of economic and financial status of trade entrepreneurs, i.e. small independent retailers in Serbia for 2008 - 2012 period. Despite very "complex", i.e. appalling business conditions in Serbia in the last period, the results (of almost all observed indicators) show "relatively" satisfactory economic and financial position of the trade entrepreneurs in Serbia. In total trade operating income in Serbia in 2012 it participated with 3.81%. In order to improve their economic and financial position in the future they should merge (because of joint procurement and other trading activities execution), apply new concepts of cost management (Toyota's principles of business, above all), the concept of managing relationships with customers and suppliers and modern information technology. (JEL Classification: F65 L81 M40).
PL
Ze względu na ich ogólne znaczenie, skoncentrowano się na teoretycznej oraz praktycznej analizie kondycji małych niezależnych przedsiębiorstw detalicznych. W artykule przeanalizowano specyfikę ekonomicznego i finansowego statusu przedsiębiorstw handlowych, tzn. małych niezależnych detalistów w Serbii w latach 2008-2012. Pamiętając o podejściu „kompleksowym”, tj. o zatrważającej kondycją przedsiębiorczości w Serbii w ostatnim okresie, wyniki badań (w zakresie niemal wszystkich wskaźników) wykazują „relatywnie” satysfakcjonującą ekonomiczno-finansową pozycję serbskich przedsiębiorstw handlowych. Ich udział w całkowitym handlowym przychodzie operacyjnym w Serbii w 2012 roku wyniósł 3,81%. W celu poprawy sytuacji analizowanych przedsiębiorstw powinny one w przyszłości łączyć się (ze względu na wspólne zamówienia oraz inne działania handlowe), stosować nowe koncepcje zarządzania kosztami (przede wszystkim zasady biznesowe Toyoty), nowe koncepcje zarządzania relacjami z klientami i dostawcami oraz nowoczesne technologie informatyczne (JEL: F65 L81 M40).
Celem badania jest analiza metod wyceny papierów dłużnych danego państwa, wypracowanie metodycznego podejścia do szacowania poziomu zabezpieczenia długu w oparciu o wyliczenie wskaźnika integralnego oraz ocena poziomu zabezpieczenia długu państw regionu Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej na podstawie zaproponowanego podejścia. Do badań wykorzystana jest metoda obliczania integralnego indeksu dłużnych papierów wartościowych kraju, uwzględniająca ogólnie przyjęte progi wskaźników zadłużenia i wypłacalności oraz tendencję rosnącego uzależnienia państw od pożyczek zewnętrznych. Proponowane podejście jest praktycznie testowane w ocenie poziomu bezpieczeństwa zadłużenia krajów EŚW. Określa się, że grupę państw EŚW różnicuje stan zadłużenia i wypłacalność. Najwyższy poziom zabezpieczenia dłużnego wykazują Bułgaria, Czechy i Estonia, najgorsza sytuacja z zabezpieczeniami dłużnymi kształtuje się na Słowacji i Słowenii. Na podstawie analizy dynamiki integralnych indeksów dłużnych papierów wartościowych w latach 2007-2019, pogrupowania krajów EŚW według poziomu i stref bezpieczeństwa długu wykryto tendencję pogarszania się bezpieczeństwa dłużnego regionu w latach 2010-2015 oraz jego poprawy w latach 2016-2019. Proponowane podejście jest uniwersalne; może być używane do obliczania indeksów papierów dłużnych oraz do dostarczania badań porównawczych sektora długu dowolnego kraju lub regionu. Zaproponowane badanie może również pomóc w zidentyfikowaniu słabych punktów bezpieczeństwa długu kraju, które są niezwykle ważne dla uzasadnienia środków polityki publicznej w celu zapewnienia odpowiedniego poziomu bezpieczeństwa długu.
EN
The study is aimed at analyzing methods of country’s debt security evaluation, developing methodic approach towards estimating the level of debt security based on the calculation of the integral index, and assessing the level of debt security of CEE countries on the basis of the proposed approach. A method of calculating the integral debt security index of the country is developed, taking into account generally accepted thresholds of indebtedness and solvency indicators and the trend of countries’ increasing dependence on external borrowing. The proposed approach is practically tested in assessing the level of debt security of CEE countries. It is determined that the group of CEE countries is differentiated by the state of indebtedness and solvency. The highest level of debt security is demonstrated by Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Estonia, the worst situation with the debt security is formed in Slovakia and Slovenia. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of integral debt security indices for 2007–2019, the grouping of CEE countries by the level and zones of debt security, the trends of deterioration of the region’s debt security in 2010–2015 and its improvement in 2016–2019 has been found out. The proposed approach is universal one; it can be used to calculate debt security indices and to provide comparative studies of the debt sector of any country or region. It can also help to identify weaknesses in country’s debt security that is critically important for reasoning the public policy measures to ensure a proper level of debt security.
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