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PL
W artykule zaprezentowano wskaźnik wczesnego ostrzegania o powstawaniu tzw. bąbla spekulacyjnego w związku z nadmiernymi oczekiwaniami inwestorów w odniesieniu do wzrostu cen akcji na giełdzie papierów wartościowych. Jeżeli zaprezentowany wskaźnik przekroczy poziom 100 punktów, to rośnie prawdopodobieństwo, że osiągnięty poziom ceny danych akcji stanowi efekt tzw. bąbla spekulacyjnego. Istotna jest również informacja odnośnie do liczby spółek pozwalająca na obliczenie skumulowanego wskaźnika zachłanności dla całej giełdy.
EN
Presentation of early warning indicator, which could inform about creating a speculative bubble and excessive investors expectations, which could provide a synthetic picture of excessive shares value on the stock exchange. If this indicator is above 100 points, then there is high likelihood that the share price is resulted by speculative bubble. It is important to know how many companies show this kind of threat and what is the total value of cumulated greed index.
EN
This paper discusses the causes of speculative bubbles. For a better understanding of this phenomenon, it presents some famous speculative bubbles in the history of economics, it is enough to mention the South Sea Bubble and the Dot-com Bubble. As an economic starting point for analysis, this paper applies George Soros’s reflexivity theory. His Boom-Bust Model is supplemented by a description of psychological aspects of speculative bubbles.
EN
The paper presents some ethical aspects of the credit rating agencies (CRAs) market in the light of the latest economic crisis of 2008. A historical background is also shown and how the CRA market emerged. It is emphasised how the functioning of CRAs contributed to the outbreak of the crisis and what were the consequences of over- or underestimated rating grades. The downgrading of a country has a significant influence on the deterioration of the economic condition. Simultaneously, it afflicts the citizens, who have to pay for it e.g. with higher tax rates. It is believed that overestimated ratings lead to a speculative bubble, which ends up with the crisis. The paper indicates the problems connected with the way that CRAs operate and how they relate to business ethics. The fact that those institutions are profitprofile entities, which earn their income from clients, whose financial instruments are assessed, may bring about a conflict of interests. Moreover, it is outlined how the governmental policies of countries left CRAs without any particular control, which in the end was a significant factor, too. Finally, some potential solutions are discussed, and how the approach of CRA managers should change in order to prevent the market from similar situations in the future.
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