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EN
he article presents research trends in the stock market of Ukraine, identified the need to strengthen anti-corruption and, consequently, developed a number of proposals aimed at easing the manifestation of a conflict of interest of market participants
PL
W niniejszej pracy zbadano trendy na ukraińskim rynku funduszy inwestycyjnych, wskazując na potrzebę wzmocnienia walki z korupcją. Zaproponowano szereg rozwiązań mających na celu ograniczenie przejawów konfliktu interesów uczestników rynku.
EN
The influence of the spatial relation on the stock market is becoming more frequently the subject of a discussion. Efforts to pinpoint the relation between the dis- tance and the investors choices are relevant to both the intra- and intermarket connec- tions. With the latter one, spatial dependencies may function as a shock transmission channel, resulting with the contagion effect. The object of this paper is to present the results of the research on the influence of spatial and economic distance on the correlation of selected European stock markets during the 2007–2009 crisis period. In order to verify the hypothesis regarding the influ- ence of the spatial relations on the stock market correlation DCC GARCH model was used among with spatial analysis tools.
EN
Research background: The current changes in the global stock markets are related to the next wave of the industrial revolution ?Industry 4.0?. It is expected that the Industry 4.0 will lead to an acceleration of the innovation process and growth of volumes of tailor-made products. The stock markets started to react to the upcoming technological changes over the last decade, which are reflected by the changes in the composition of the major stock indices where the technological sector started to grow in importance. But innovations are not only connected with the specialized technological sector, but they are also of direct concern to the whole spectrum of economic entities. Besides the private investments that are usually allocated via the stock market, also the public sector investments play an important role. Purpose of the article: The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between government expenditures on research and development (R&D) and stock markets (and GDP) in the US and in Germany. Methods: We use the tools of descriptive analysis as well as correlation and regression methods of estimation. Findings & Value added: Our research confirms that the collection of data on R&D on annual basis for Germany and the US is insufficient for analytical and systemic management purposes. The real effects of investments in the R&D are time lagged. The regression analysis of annual data confirms only the statistical importance of patent applications as well as interest rate and stock index as independent variables in explanation of variability of real economy growth during the 1985?2017 period. Our model did not prove the significance of government expenditures. We can explain it, among others, by the fact that governments do not pay sufficient attention to the challenges yet, which are associated with the Industry 4.0, especially in the US, where the government expenditures in R&D gradually decrease. The governments in both economies try to increase their support, but fiscal sustainability is a limiting factor.
EN
The main objective of the paper was to study connections between the financial markets including the Polish stock exchange market. The author wanted to respond to the following questions: • How strong are correlations among the main stock exchanges in the world? • What is the time (bear market or bull market) with stronger interdependencies among global financial markets? • What markets are most related to Polish WIG 20 Index? The author gathered data from 1999 till 2011. Correlation is calculated for the main global stock exchanges but it also contains Polish market. We can see that the longer period of calculation the weaker connections among stocks all over the world. Furthermore in crisis time interdependencies are stronger what leads us to support a hypothesis that diversification among stock markets does not work properly because of global economy. Next research in this area should focus on the fundamental determinants of international correlation across equity markets. Studies have to take into consideration industry specifications of each national market as well as the correlation of the countries’ business cycles.
EN
The investigation concerns the problem of whether some macroeconomic variables and the EUR/PLN exchange rate might affect the performance of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The answer to this question can be obtained from a cointegration analysis. The advantage of testing for cointegration is the identification of a stable long-run relationship between the stock price index, some macroeconomic variables, and the EUR/PLN exchange rate, which can be implemented using various cointegration methodologies. Analysis of the response of one variable to an impulse of another variable is also performed to show the importance of a given variable in a system.
EN
Advancing globalization provides access to more information. It also affects the frequency of data. Some events are listed on a monthly, daily and even minute basis. Thus, during the time-space study selecting appropriate and relevant information becomes a problem. The paper presents a suggested solution to this problem based on the example of stock exchanges in Central and Eastern Europe.
EN
Recent rapid development of the Baltic stock markets raises the question about stock market integration level in these countries. Some empirical aspects of the Baltic stock market integration have been analysed in the scientific literature, however, a comprehensive analysis on the Baltic stock market integration level is still missing. The aim of the paper is to assess the regional integration level of the Baltic stock markets. The research object is stock markets in the Baltic countries. The following research and statistical methods have been applied in this study: the systemic and comparative analysis of the scientific literature, Spearman’s correlation coefficient, dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, Granger causality test, generalized impulse response analysis, Johansen cointegration test, autoregressive distributed lag model and error correction model. The main findings of this empirical study are (a) all three Baltic stock markets are closely related markets, (b) however, the Latvian stock market is more isolated at the regional level comparing to other two Baltic stock markets (c) whereas Estonian and Lithuanian stock markets are more interrelated.
Ekonomista
|
2015
|
issue 6
760-778
PL
Artykuł dotyczy wzajemnej zależności pomiędzy rozwojem rynków kapitałowych i rozwojem realnej sfery gospodarki. Pierwsza część artykułu zawiera obszerny przegląd teoretycznej i empirycznej literatury na ten temat. Druga część przedstawia wyniki empirycznego badania zależności statystycznej między wielkością i dynamiką rynku akcji (mierzoną jego kapitalizacją) a wielkością i dynamiką gospodarki (mierzoną wartością PKB). Analiza została oparta na danych rocznych z okresu 1995–2010, obejmujących 65 krajów. Zarówno analiza przekrojowa wolumenów kapitału akcyjnego i wielkości produkcji, jak i dynamiczna analiza stóp wzrostu obu tych wielkości pokazuje ścisłą korelację między rozwojem rynków kapitałowych a rozwojem gospodarki. Chociaż zależność ta jest z pewnością obustronna, wyniki tego badania dostarczają dodatkowego dowodu na wpływ ewolucji rynków kapitałowych na poziom aktywności gospodarczej i wzrost gospodarczy.
EN
The article deals with the mutual dependence between the development of the capital market and the development of the real sphere of the economy. The fi rst part of the paper includes a comprehensive review of the theoretical and empirical literature on the subject. The second part brings an empirical examination of the statistical dependence between the size and growth of the stock market (measured by its capitalization) and the size and growth of the economy (measured by the value of GDP). The analysis is based on yearly data for 65 countries for the period of 1995–2010. Both a cross-section study of the stock and output volumes and a dynamic examination of the growth rates of the stock market and total output shows a close correlation between the development of the capital market and the development of the economy. Even if this relationship is presumably mutual, the results of the examination bring an additional evidence of the impact of capital market developments on the level of economic activity and economic growth.
RU
В статье рассматривается взаимозависимость между развитием фондовых рынков и развитием реальной сферы экономики. Первая часть статьи содержит обширный обзор теоретической и эмпирической литературы на эту тему. Вторая часть представляет результаты эмпирического исследования статистической зависимости между величиной и динамикой рынка акций (измеряемого его капитализацией) и величиной и динамикой экономики (измеряемой объемом ВВП). Анализ опирается на годичные данные за период 1995–2010, охватывающий 65 стран. Многоаспектный анализ величины акционерного капитала и объемов производства и динамический анализ норм роста обеих этих величин указывает на тесную корреляцию между развитием фондовых рынков и развитием экономики. Эта зависимость несомненно имеет и обратный характер, но результаты исследования дают дополнительное доказательство влияния именно эволюции фондовых рынков на уровень экономической активности и экономический рост.
EN
The main goal of this paper is to explicitly test a research hypothesis that there was no integration effect among the U.S. and the eight Central and Eastern European (CEE) stock markets during the 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). As growing international integration could lead to a progressive increase in cross-market correlations, the evaluation of integration was carried out by applying equality tests of correlation matrices computed over non-overlapping subsamples: the pre-crisis and crisis periods, in the group of investigated markets. The crisis periods are formally established based on a statistical method of dividing market states into bullish and bearish markets. The sample period May 2004-April 2014 includes the 2007 U.S. subprime financial crisis. The robustness analysis of the integration tests with respect to various data frequencies is provided. The empirical results are not homogeneous and they depend both on the integration test and data frequency. Consequently, it is not possible to conclude whether integration between the investigated markets is present.
EN
Financial market participants are influenced by the news reaching them from all manner of sources, including the country’s central bank. In this paper we model daily returns of WIG20 index with respect to announcements made by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) regarding the changes of the official interest rate of open market operations (the so-called reference rate) during the period of 2004-2016. The goal is to examine whether the NBP’s announcements have an impact on either stock returns or volatility and whether the content of such communiqué (either interest rate cut or raise) matters. The FIGARCH model is found to be an appropriate specification for the data. Moreover, the results suggest that, in fact, interest rate changes do have a significant impact on both returns and volatility. However, the reactions to news are different with respect to the type of announcement.
EN
The paper examines relationships between selected stock market indices in Western Europe, Central Europe, and the United States. The study focuses on two periods, from January 1998 to August 2006 and from September 2006 to December 2016. The first one includes stock quotes from before the financial crisis while the second one covers the crisis and changes in the economic situation in post-crisis years. Relationships between stock market indices in developed economies were more frequent and durable than in Central Europe, although they were subject to changes. In our investigation into Granger causality relationships we observed changes in these relationships and in their direction for stock markets in Central Europe, while bidirectional relationships between indices in developed economies remained stable over time. Changes in relationships between indices, in particular long- -term interdependences, may result from the impact of the 2008 financial crisis. The increased number of causality relationships for the markets in Central Europe may testify to the advancing integration of the EU common market.
EN
The main purpose of this paper is to examine the transformation of the stock market in the People’s Republic of China (i.e. concentrated on stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen; the stock exchange in Hong Kong was omitted) from its beginnings in the early 1990s, through rapid development over the next two decades, up to the financial crisis of 2008 (the period examined is 1990–2012). The paper presents a short history of the Chinese stock market before and after 1990. Other topics covered include unique stock classification system, comparison of the two stock exchanges, main market participants (including barriers for institutional and foreign investors), and legal/regulatory environment evolution. The next part of the paper consists of an analysis of the main stock market’s development indicators (in both absolute and relative terms). The findings conclude that, in the said period, Chinese stock market has undergone a deep transformation, especially when its size and liquidity are being considered. However, there are still many aspects in which it remains underdeveloped, particularly in the supervision system’s area.
EN
The profitability of analysts’ recommendations is documented in numerous studies from all over the world. However, the evidence from the Polish market is relatively modest. The primary aim of this study is to fill this gap. The paper contributes to the economic literature in four ways. First, it provides fresh out-of-sample evidence on return patterns following analysts’ recommendations from Poland. Second, it examines the relations between these patterns and the size of the rated companies. Finally, it investigates whether it is possible to design profitable strategies based on the discovered patterns. We use monthly stock level data from Poland and the sample period is 2004-2013. In order to examine the profitability of analysts’ reports, we build market-neutral portfolios and test their performance against CAPM, Fama-French three-factor and Carhart fourfactor models. The principal findings can be summarized as follows. First, we document that the top rated companies deliver better returns than the bottom rated companies. Second, we find that the profitability is particularly impressive among the small companies. Third, the abnormal returns are partially explained by momentum and value based factors. Finally, we provide evidence that strategies based on information in recommendations deliver statistically significant positive abnormal rates of return.
EN
The stock market may be unpredictable; understanding when to purchase and sell can greatly assist businesses and individuals in maximizing profits and minimizing losses. Many companies have previously modified time-series analysis, a data mining technique, to forecast stock price movement. The idea of textual data mining has recently come up in debates about stock market forecasts. In this study, five of the largest firms’ historical stock prices were used to train two deep learning models—long short-term memory (LSTM) and one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1D CNN), then the results of all the models were compared. To connect price value fluctuations with the general public, sentiment scores were offered in addition to stock price values by employing natural language processing techniques (TextBlob) to tweets.
EN
This study examines the mediating role of volatility on the relationship between analyst recommendations and herding in the Malaysian stock market by using data from 2010 to 2020. Volatility is measured by realized volatility and the Parkinson estimator. The empirical evidence suggests that herding exists and realized volatility intervenes in the direct relationship between analyst recommendations and herding. The release of analyst recommendations causes realized volatility to fluctuate and investors are triggered by the volatility, which in turn follow the crowd to herd. Nonetheless, the Parkinson estimator is found to be insignificant, which infers that investors have anchor bias and rely on previous day stock prices to trade and herd. This paper provides an alternative explanation to the direct relationship and enhances the study of informationbased herding. It contributes to academicians, practitioners, investors and policymakers to understand the herding of investors in responding to the arrival of new information.
EN
The key decisions made by a managing director should always be based on the analysis of the enterprise’s requirements and financial possibilities. Without this knowledge, some investments could face the serious risk of failure. Many forms of raising capital allow investment aims to be tailored so as to be adequately implemented. Moreover, the selected method should coincide with the company’s economic situation. Thanks to today’s constant development of the capital markets and global free cash flow, the stock exchange has become one of the best alternative ways of raising capital. The paper presents the numerous positive and negative aspects of the IPO with consideration of the cost of raising capital and corporate policy. It is based on data on IPOs from the Warsaw Stock Exchange in the years 2005–2010.
EN
A number of studies assert that during critical events cross-market correlations change substantially. The main focus of this paper is to explicitly test two research hypotheses concerning the effect of increasing cross-market correlations in the 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) compared to the pre-crisis period. These hypotheses state that there was no contagion and no integration effects among the U.S., the U.K., and selected African stock markets (South Africa, Namibia, Egypt, Nigeria, Morocco and Kenya) during the GFC. The crisis periods are formally detected using a statistical method of dividing market states into bullish and bearish markets. The sample period begins in January 2003 and ends in December 2013, and it includes the 2007 U.S. subprime crisis. Obtained results indicate that there is no reason to reject both research hypotheses. Moreover, the results confirm a heterogeneity of the African equity markets in the context of the influence of the recent global crisis.
PL
Artykuł zawiera analizę zależności stóp zwrotu na rynkach akcji Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej od stopy dywidendy. Badanie opiera się na notowaniach miesięcznych 1153 spółek z 11 państw latach 2002–2014. Wykorzystane zostały metody sortowania, analizy regresji, testy przesunięcia granicy efektywnej oraz testy relacji monotonicznej. Wyniki można podsumować następująco. Po pierwsze, spółki o wysokiej stopie dywidendy przynoszą istotnie wyższe stopy zwrotu, nawet po skorygowaniu o ryzyko rynkowe oraz efekty wskaźnika wartości księgowej do rynkowej, kapitalizacji i momentum. Obserwację tę wspierają dowody na relację monotoniczną: im wyższe stopy dywidendy, tym wyższe stopy zwrotu. Po drugie, portfele zbudowane według wysokości stopy dywidendy pozwalają przesunąć granicę efektywną inwestora giełdowego, nawet przy założeniu braku normalności rozkładu stóp zwrotu. Po trzecie, ponadprzeciętne stopy zwrotu są charakterystyczne dla portfeli budowanych na bazie historycznych wartości dywidend, jednak nie na bazie wartości prognozowanych. Po czwarte wreszcie, powiązanie pomiędzy dywidendami i stopami zwrotu jest charakterystyczne dla dużych i średnich spółek giełdowych, a nie dla małych.
EN
In this paper we investigate cross-sectional patterns of rates of return related to dividend yield in the CEE stock market. We examine a broad sample of 1153 companies from 11 countries for years 2002-2014. We use sorting procedures, cross-sectional tests, and mean-variance spanning analysis, and tests of monotonic relation. The principal fi ndings are as follows. First, the high dividend stocks overperform, even after applying the classical three- and four factor models. Second, the abnormal returns are typical only for stock sorted on past dividend yields, and not on forecasted dividend yields. Finally, the alphas on dividend-based portfolios are characteristic largely only for big- and midcaps. We fi nd very weak evidence for the dividend premium across the micro- and small stocks.
RU
В статье содержится анализ зависимости между нормой окупаемости и нормой дивиденда на рынках акций Центральной и Восточной Европы. Материалом для исследования послужили месячные котировки 1153 компаний из 11 стран за период с 2002 по 2014 год. Были использованы методы сортировки, анализа, регрессии, тесты переноса эффективной границы, а также тесты монотонной зависимости. Итоги можно подвести следующим образом. Во-первых, компании с высокой нормой дивиденда достигают существенно более высоких норм окупаемости, даже после корректировки на рыночный риск и эффекты показателя соотношения между балансовой и рыночной стоимостью, капитализацию и моментум. Это наблюдение усиливают доказательства монотонной зависимости: чем выше норма дивиденда, тем выше норма окупаемости. Во-вторых, портфели, построенные исходя из величины нормы дивиденда, позволяют передвинуть эффективную границу биржевого инвестора, даже при отсутствии нормального расклада норм окупаемости. В-третьих, более высокие, чем средние, нормы окупаемости характерны для портфелей, построенных на базе исторической величины дивидендов, а не на базе прогнозируемых величин. Наконец, в-четвертых, взаимосвязь между дивидендами и нормами окупаемости характерна только для больших и средних биржевых компаний и нехарактерна для мелких.
PL
Artykuł zawiera analizę zależności stóp zwrotu na rynkach akcji Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej od stopy dywidendy. Badanie opiera się na notowaniach miesięcznych 1153 spółek z 11 państw latach 2002–2014. Wykorzystane zostały metody sortowania, analizy regresji, testy przesunięcia granicy efektywnej oraz testy relacji monotonicznej. Wyniki można podsumować następująco. Po pierwsze, spółki o wysokiej stopie dywidendy przynoszą istotnie wyższe stopy zwrotu, nawet po skorygowaniu o ryzyko rynkowe oraz efekty wskaźnika wartości księgowej do rynkowej, kapitalizacji i momentum. Obserwację tę wspierają dowody na relację monotoniczną: im wyższe stopy dywidendy, tym wyższe stopy zwrotu. Po drugie, portfele zbudowane według wysokości stopy dywidendy pozwalają przesunąć granicę efektywną inwestora giełdowego, nawet przy założeniu braku normalności rozkładu stóp zwrotu. Po trzecie, ponadprzeciętne stopy zwrotu są charakterystyczne dla portfeli budowanych na bazie historycznych wartości dywidend, jednak nie na bazie wartości prognozowanych. Po czwarte wreszcie, powiązanie pomiędzy dywidendami i stopami zwrotu jest charakterystyczne dla dużych i średnich spółek giełdowych, a nie dla małych.
EN
In this paper we investigate cross-sectional patterns of rates of return related to dividend yield in the CEE stock market. We examine a broad sample of 1153 companies from 11 countries for years 2002-2014. We use sorting procedures, cross-sectional tests, and mean-variance spanning analysis, and tests of monotonic relation. The principal fi ndings are as follows. First, the high dividend stocks overperform, even after applying the classical three- and four factor models. Second, the abnormal returns are typical only for stock sorted on past dividend yields, and not on forecasted dividend yields. Finally, the alphas on dividend-based portfolios are characteristic largely only for big- and midcaps. We fi nd very weak evidence for the dividend premium across the micro- and small stocks.
RU
В статье содержится анализ зависимости между нормой окупаемости и нормой дивиденда на рынках акций Центральной и Восточной Европы. Материалом для исследования послужили месячные котировки 1153 компаний из 11 стран за период с 2002 по 2014 год. Были использованы методы сортировки, анализа, регрессии, тесты переноса эффективной границы, а также тесты монотонной зависимости. Итоги можно подвести следующим образом. Во-первых, компании с высокой нормой дивиденда достигают существенно более высоких норм окупаемости, даже после корректировки на рыночный риск и эффекты показателя соотношения между балансовой и рыночной стоимостью, капитализацию и моментум. Это наблюдение усиливают доказательства монотонной зависимости: чем выше норма дивиденда, тем выше норма окупаемости. Во-вторых, портфели, построенные исходя из величины нормы дивиденда, позволяют передвинуть эффективную границу биржевого инвестора, даже при отсутствии нормального расклада норм окупаемости. В-третьих, более высокие, чем средние, нормы окупаемости характерны для портфелей, построенных на базе исторической величины дивидендов, а не на базе прогнозируемых величин. Наконец, в-четвертых, взаимосвязь между дивидендами и нормами окупаемости характерна только для больших и средних биржевых компаний и нехарактерна для мелких.
EN
The article focuses on the realm of stock exchange and its terminology. It starts with a historical overview of stock exchange in Europe, with a particular emphasis on the one in Frankfurt am Main. The main objective of the article, however, is to present the key stock market terms. After characterising the terms from the stock exchanges in Paris and the United States, the author discusses lexis from the online version of the German stock-market daily newspaper, Börsen­Zeitung. The data comes from the first half of 2013. Thirty terms with the highest frequency have been selected and analysed.
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