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The paper is devoted to evaluation of the econometric method applied as a part of a variance screen in collusion detection procedure. Validation is based on ex-post analysis of Indian cement industry in the 1994 - 2009 time period and comparative study of the obtained results with factual evidences of collusion at that market. The method in question is based on MS(M)AR (p, q) Markov switching model specification. As a result of the research we could identify variability regimes consistent with theoretical motivation of the marker and detect collusion and competition phases partly consistent with historical evidences. However promising, method had some drawbacks applied to high frequency data in the context of variance screen. We proposed some solutions for further research to overcome it.
EN
This paper examines corporate leverage and its determinants on panel of 921 large Western European companies from 2003 to 2010. The results proved a substantial influence of estimated variables on changes in target debt or leverage ratio. Apart of the determinants from the “core” model, I test the influence of stock price variations on changes in capital structure to conclude if companies “time” the market. The estimation procedure of target debt ratio was performed using Fixed-Effect and FGLS methods. The results were compared to the results of often used methodology in previous research – OLS and Tobit regression. I found statistically significant and negative correlation between target leverage ratio and tangibility, market to book, profitability, product uniqueness and total return (average stock return) and statistically significant and positive correlation between target leverage ratio and size. The results suggest the mix of trade-off and pecking order theory predictions and are consistent with findings of previous studies. Future research should focus on impact of leverage deficit (deviations from target leverage ratio) on corporate decisions in Europe.
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