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The Belt and Road Initiative as a tool for promoting EU–China trade. Poland’s case

100%
Szypulewska-Porczyńska A.
Research Papers in Economics and Finance
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2020
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vol. 4
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issue 2
29-40
EN
The aim of the study is to evaluate the potential role of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for promoting EU – China trade, and especially Poland – China trade. We test two hypotheses: 1) Non-tariff barriers (NTBs), particularly related to railway transport, are significant for Poland – China trade, and 2) Poland – China trade fits railway transport well. Therefore, we start with a study of the significance of tariff and non-tariff barriers in mutual trade relations, including transport-related barriers. NTBs are mainly derived from the EU Market Access database, and as for transport-related barriers – the logistics performance index (LPI) is used. As the next step, we study the composition of bilateral trade in static and dynamic terms using the OECD TiVA database. In the light of the significant increase in NTBs on EU manufacturing products exported to China and the railway transport infrastructure performance in Poland, the BRI could become an effective tool for improving the business environment for EU exporters. By contrast, the BRI project is more suitable for China and the EU as a whole than for Poland in terms of commodity structure of bilateral trade.
2
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Strefa wolnego handlu Unia Europejska i Ukraina - skutki handlowe dla Polski

86%
Ambroziak Ł., Kaliszuk E.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
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2009
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vol. 236
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issue 11-12
141-163
EN
In March 2007, the European Union and Ukraine opened negotiations on an association agreement to replace the existing agreement on partnership and cooperation. The main part of the new agreement will be a deal on the establishment of a free trade zone between the EU and Ukraine. The paper aims to examine the commercial implications of such a zone for Poland, especially as Ukraine is one of the largest export markets for Polish goods and Poland is the second largest commercial partner for Ukraine in the EU27 in terms of trade volume. The authors estimate the results of reducing import duties in terms of trade creation and diversion effects. They also examine the potential implications of lifting export duties by Ukraine and of using trade protection policies by both sides. Even though the estimated commercial effects are moderate, the authors say, they conclude that a free trade zone between the EU and Ukraine would benefit Poland’s trade. The zone would enhance Polish-Ukrainian relations without harming bilateral commerce, according to Ambroziak and Kaliszuk.
3
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Mega FTA as a Signal Against Trade Protectionism Focused on the EU and Japan FTA

81%
Park S.-C.
Przegląd Strategiczny
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2019
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issue 12
249-270
PL
Pytania badawcze omawiane w tym artykule dotyczą tego, czy umowa o wolnym handlu UE z Japonią może być rozwiązaniem korzystnym dla obu stron, czy też wygrana jednej strony oznacza przegraną drugiej, a także analizuje powody, dla których obie strony zawierają umowę o wolnym handlu i które gałęzie przemysłu w obu krajach mogą na niej najwięcej skorzystać. Ostatnią kwestią jest to, jak oszacować wpływ tego porozumienia na globalną gospodarkę. Teza artykułu głosi, że umowa o wolnym handlu może zmniejszyć protekcjonizm handlowy i w długoterminowej perspektywie przynieść stronom dynamicznej grupy handlowej większe korzyści gospodarcze niż protekcjonizm. Metodologia badań polega na wykorzystaniu analizy przekrojowej w oparciu o dane statystyczne i zebrane informacje, a także analizę polityki handlowej. Dodatkowo zastosowano krytyczną analizę literatury i analizę wnioskowania. W wyniku badań stwierdzono, że umowa o wolnym handlu pomiędzy UE i Japonią może generować dodatkowy wzrost PKB na poziomie około 0,76 procent w UE i około 0,29 w Japonii rocznie przez następne dziesięć lat. Ponadto tworzy nowe miejsca pracy dla obu stron. Chociaż umowa o wolnym handlu UE z Japonią może spowodować pewne straty, szczególnie w gospodarkach Azji Wschodniej, takich jak Korea Południowa, Chiny i Tajwan, ich łączna kwota jest szacowana na bardzo niskim poziomie. W globalnej gospodarce umowa o wolnym handlu UE z Japonią może generować znacznie większe zyski niż straty. Oznacza to, że jeśli umowa ta wejdzie w życie będzie korzystna nie tylko dla jej sygnatariuszy – UE i Japonii – ale także dla całej gospodarki światowej.
EN
The research questions of the paper are whether the EU Japan FTA can be a win-win approach or win-lose approach? Moreover what are reasons for the two parties to complete the FTA and which industrial sectors can be mostly profited in both parties? Last, but not least how to estimate impacts on the global economy? The hypotheses are FTA can reduce trade protectionism, and the former can generate more economic benefits to the participating countries than latter in the long term based on the trade dynamic group. The research methodology is to use cross sectional analysis based on statistic data and information collection as well as trade policy analysis. Additionally, critical analysis of literature and inference analysis are employed. The conclusion of the research is that the EU Japan FTA can generate about 0.76 percent GDP growth to the EU and about 0.29 percent GDP growth to Japan additionally per year next ten years long. Furthermore, it also creates new employment in both parties. Although the EU Japan FTA can create some looser particularly in East Asian economies such as South Korea, China, and Taiwan, their total amount is estimated as very low. In the global economy, the EU Japan FTA can generate much larger gains than lost. As a result, it is not only a win-win approach for the EU and Japan, but also for the whole global economy if it enters into force.
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