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EN
The purpose of this paper is to present dynamic approach to selection of efficient portfolios using a multivariate GARCH model. The paper examines if taking into consideration time varying variances and covariance's of stock returns in portfolio selection increases efficiency of asset allocation process. In order to eliminate influence of selection of expected returns estimator, the minimum variance portfolio is constructed. The results are compared with "traditional" methods of portfolio selection and methods used by practitioners of financial markets.
PL
Celem niniejszego artykułu jest zaprezentowanie dynamicznego podejścia do wyznaczania portfeli efektywnych, wykorzystującego prognozy wariancji i kowariancji stop zwrotu, skonstruowane na podstawie wielorównaniowych modeli GARCH. Zbadano, czy uwzględnienie zmieniających się w czasie wariancji i kowariancji stóp zwrotu przy budowie Portfela wpływa na wzrost efektywności procesu alokacji aktywów. Chcąc wyeliminować wpływ wyboru estymatora wartości oczekiwanej stóp zwrotu, wyznaczano portfel o minimalnej wariancji. Uzyskane wyniki zostały porównane z wynikami otrzymanymi na podstawie »tradycyjnych” metod budowy portfeli oraz metod stosowanych przez praktyków rynku finansowego.
EN
The purpose of this paper is to present dynamic approach to selection of efficient portfolios using a forecasts of variances and covariances from the multivariate GARCH models. Evaluation of efficiency for different methods of asset allocation is also performed for stocks from the WSE. Twelve specifications of the multivariate GARCH models, the univariate GARCH model and six other covariance matrix estimation methods are used. Taking into consideration time varying variances and covariances of stock returns in portfolio selections increases, with some exceptions, efficiency of asset allocation process. Simple specifications of them ultivariate GARCH models, w hich parameters are estimated in one stage, are the best perform ing models. From economic point of view, the differences between the models are not significant, with exception of the factor and orthogonal models. RiskMetrics methodology commonly used by practitioners does not give good results for constructions of efficient portfolios.
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