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Wpływ poziomu stóp procentowych oraz wielkości luki Taylora na prawdopodobieństwo bankructwa banków w Polsce

100%
Izbrandt M.
FINANSE Czasopismo Komitetu Nauk o Finansach PAN
|
2017
|
issue 1(10)
207-222
EN
This work describes the influence of monetary and interest rate policy of Poland’s central bank on the risk-taking of Polish commercial banks. The panel data analysis and data of twelve banks were used to find the relationship between banks’ Expected Default Frequency (EDF), which is the measure of probability of bankruptcy, and variables such as interest rate levels and Taylor’s gaps. The results suggest that at the beginning the lowering of interest rate decrease the probability of bankruptcy but in a long-run horizon this probability increases. The second outcome is that the increase of banks’ Expected Default Frequency can be a result of lowering interest rates below the level given by the Taylor rule, which was proposed by John B. Taylor. Both takeaways are crucial to understand how current monetary and interest rate policy in Poland and in other main economies can influence financial institutions’ activity.
2
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Stock recommendations – an analysis of usefulness

51%
Gadomska O., Izbrandt M., Włosik K.
FINANSE Czasopismo Komitetu Nauk o Finansach PAN
|
2017
|
issue 1(10)
355-371
EN
This article presents the results of an assessment of the reliability and thus usefulness of the recommendations concerning stocks listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. In order to meet this goal, the authors analysed thoroughly a data set consisting of nearly 18,000 recommendations, issued from 2000 to the end of June 2015 by 82 analytical firms. The research was supported by an evaluation of the accuracy of target prices. The results obtained were used to assess the quality of the recommendations, and to make an attempt at ranking financial institutions on that basis.
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