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PL
Wśród głównych przyczyn odmiennego zachowania się wskaźników wzrostu gospodarczego w Stanach Zjednoczonych i w strefie euro za najważniejszą należy uznać rozbieżność zmian długoterminowych realnych stóp pro-centowych na obydwu rynkach. Prawie dwupunktowe różnice wysokości dłu-goterminowych realnych stóp procentowych w latach 2012-2013 przełożyły się na podobne różnice w tempie wzrostu gospodarczego. Przyczyną utrzymy-wania się w krajach strefy euro na tak wysokim poziomie realnych długotermi-nowych stóp procentowych, była niekonsekwentna polityka stóp procentowych EBC oraz brak elastyczności w polityce anty-inflacyjnej. Ich ostatecznym skutkiem jest pojawienie się symptomów zagrożenia gospodarki krajów strefy euro pułapką niskiej inflacji.
PL
The aim of the paper is to assess whether the range of non-standard measuresundertaken by the European Central Bank between 2014–2015 may turn outinsufficient to stimulate demand and overcome deflation. The causes for the presentsituation are the weaknesses of mechanisms transmitting monetary policyimpulses to the economy resulting from: 1) pessimistic expectations withinEurozone regarding economic growth, 2) lack among policy tools of any forwardguidance for the desirable mid-term level of crucial real magnitudes, 3) lack ofsufficient flexibility in the inflation target policy, 4) the weakness of the securitiespurchase programmes which exerted only a temporary effect on the ECB’sbalance sheet and monetary base
EN
The article presents the results of estimating economic growth depending on the inflation levels in selected countries. The results were obtained by means of regression splines, in particular, cubic splines and a B-spline curve. The method applied helps to identify both the area of Non- Decreasing Economic Growth Rate of Inflation and inflation for which the rate of growth reaches its maximum. The calculations and graphic presentations demonstrate that maximum rates of economic growth were reached in inflation ranges of 5%-15% for Poland and 3%-16% for the G-20 countries studied. The data analysis leads to the conclusion that central bank margins for their accommodative monetary policies in the studied countries can be wider than it is implied by the doctrinal bases of the inflation targeting policy or its more restrictive version – strict inflation targeting.
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