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Zjawisko globalnej nierównowagi a stabilność rozwoju gospodarki światowej – ujęcie retrospektywne i prospektywne

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Sobański K., Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu; Wydział Gospodarki Międzynarodowej; Katedra Finansów Międzynarodowych
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
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2010
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vol. 238
EN
The aim of the study is to present major opinions concerning the phenomenon of global imbalances and its influence on stability of global economic growth. The author tries to systematize both concepts presented by economists prior to the world financial crisis and current views on the relationship between global imbalances and the financial crisis. The article contains also selected forecasts of the future development path of global imbalances and resulting recommendations for policy makers given by selected economists. The analysis of the world literature has helped the author to formulate two conclusions: 1) There are competing opinions on the role of global imbalances in terms of sustainable growth of the world economy (expressed both before and after the outbreak of the financial crisis; 2) There is a widespread belief among economists that global imbalances will persist in the future. Both conclusions are arguments for further research on the issue of global imbalances.
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VALUATION EFFECT AS A DETERMINANT OF THE INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN ECONOMIES

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Sobański K.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
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2015
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vol. 10
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issue 3
151-164
EN
The aim of this paper is to evaluate the significance of the valuation effect in determining the dynamics of the net international investment position of CEE economies. For this purpose an analysis of BoP and IIP time series for the four largest CEE economies (Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania) for the years 2005-2013 was carried out. The exercise revealed that the valuation effect (VE) is, in the short run, the key determinant of net IIP changes (for most observed years). Nevertheless, in the long-run its influence decreases as valuation gains and losses tend to cancel each other out. As the VE is relatively volatile, it is important to analyse its dynamics over the mid and long-term when evaluating the IIP. The significance of the VE for determining net IIP dynamics turned out to be non-investment-type specific because valuations of both the short-term and long-term investments contributed in a large part to the change in the net IIP. Similarities in the dynamics of the VE in CEE countries prove that the VE depends to a large extent on the general price fluctuations in financial markets that nowadays exhibit strong correlations across countries.
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Bilans płatniczy a zmiany międzynarodowej pozycji inwestycyjnej w krajach Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej

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Sobański K., Akademia Ekonomiczna w Poznaniu K. F. M.
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
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2007
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vol. 209
EN
The paper presents an analysis of balance of payments and its influence on international investment position of Central and Eastern European countries in the period 1996-2006. During that period CEE countries experienced high current account deficits covered by rising foreign capital flows. That led to a sharp increase in foreign liabilities. However, a deterioration of net foreign investment position stemmed mainly from a rise in negative foreign direct investment position. What is more, main international liquidity ratios (such as reserve to net international position in portfolio and other investment or reserve to import outlays) did not deteriorate much and some (such as reserve to debt, export revenues to debt) even improved. That influenced positively credibility of CEE countries. Based on experience of selected Western countries the author claims that positive scenario for future developments in CEE balance of payments is more probable than a negative one. Nevertheless the pessimistic scenario should be kept in mind and thorough analysis of balance of payments stability continued.
4
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‘Dark matter’ in the external sector of the United States

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Sobański K.
Economics and Business Review
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2019
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vol. 5 (19)
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issue 2
EN
The aim of this paper is to examine the ‘dark matter’ assets in the external sector of the United States in the period 1999:Q1-2018:Q3. The paper investigates data on the balance of payments and international investment position for the US and a group of 18 economies. The research reveals that the US is a privileged economy with respect to foreign income on international investments. The rates of return on its foreign assets are relatively higher, and the costs incurred on its foreign liabilities relatively lower, as compared with the benchmark group. This special privilege of the US relates to equity investments, especially foreign direct investments. Based on prevailing income differentials substantial ‘dark matter’ assets of the US are estimated. Recognising such ‘dark matter’ leads to the conclusion that the US is a foreign creditor, not debtor. The findings shed light on the puzzle as to why the US has a continuing ability to sustain its external position despite mounting foreign liabilities. Keywords : international finance, balance of payments, income account, international investment position, ‘dark matter’ hypothesis.
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