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1

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR A DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC ACCUMULATION MODEL FOR OPTIMAL PENSION SAVINGS MANAGEMENT

100%
Jakubik T., Melicherčík I., Ševčovič D.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
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2009
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vol. 57
|
issue 8
756 - 771
EN
Since January 2005, pensions in Slovakia are operated by a three-pillar system. This paper concentrates on the mandatory, fully funded second pillar. In their analysis authors follow the dynamic stochastic accumulation model proposed by the authors in (Kilianova et al., 2006). Recently pension asset managers tend to be very cautious and they hold low stock to bond proportions in the pension funds. The authors discuss the sensitivity of the level of savings with respect to the proportion of stocks in the portfolios. Furthermore, they perform the sensitivity analysis with respect to correlation between stock and bond returns and risk aversion. Finally, authors prove linearity of the level of savings with respect to the contribution rate.
2

SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF PANDEMIC INFLUENZA MITIGATION SCENARIOS IN SLOVAKIA

88%
Brunovský P., Ševčovič D., Somorčík J., Hroncová D., Pospíšilová K.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
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2009
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vol. 57
|
issue 2
163-178
EN
The aim of this paper is to assess the expected socio-economic impacts of various scenarios of pandemic influenza mitigation on the economy and mortality for Slovakia. Compared to similar past studies (e.g. Van Genugten et al. (2003)), the authors' approach bears a significant difference. Whereas those studies work from the very beginning with the expected values of the data, they have treated the data as well as the model parameters as random variables. Results in the form of probability distributions and their characteristics (expected values and tolerance intervals) were obtained by stochastic Monte Carlo simulations of random impacts on 5,400,000 inhabitants of Slovakia. Six scenarios of pandemic mitigation have been analyzed. Total costs of medical treatment, the number of casualties as well as social costs with casualties included were compared.
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