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1

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF SLOVAKIA IN 2010 AND OUTLOOK UP TO 2012

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Morvay K., Okáli I., Gabrielová H., Hvozdíková V., Šikulová I., Frank K., Jeck T.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2011
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vol. 59
|
issue 6
549 – 635
EN
Economic development of Slovakia in 2010 was marked by the decline of recession symptoms. Recession was replaced by a recovery, strongly differentiated by sectors. The economy has responded well to the signs of recovery in external demand. Change of the government has also brought economic policy changes, their impact was not shown fully in the same year. The effects of external environment were more significant. The labour market responded to the renewed performance growth with delay. The outlook reflects the expectation of continuing economic policy changes, including fiscal consolidation. The performance of the economy in 2011 will return to pre-recession levels, but some indicators will remain on the unfavourable level: the inflation revives, high unemployment rate will remain, the public debt will grow, and the wage growth will be probably weak. In 2012 the higher growth should be associated with a better state of balance. Very likely it will strengthen the catching-up process.
2

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF SLOVAKIA IN 2012 AND OUTLOOK UP TO 2014

100%
Morvay K., Okáli I., Gabrielová H., Hvozdíková V., Šikulová I., Frank K., Jeck T.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2013
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vol. 61
|
issue 8
767 – 845
EN
After the unexpectedly severe recession (2009) and equally unexpected recovery (2010), the Slovak economy balanced between recovery and a second recession for two years (2011 and 2012). The Slovak economy was more resilient against “the second wave of the crisis” than previously expected. Although the euro area was in recession in 2012, the Slovak economy grew (albeit slightly). However, after the significant deceleration of economic growth in the last quarter of 2012, the expectations of a recession have returned. After approximately one and a half year of waiting, the Slovak economy will be fully confronted with the second wave of the crisis. The economy cannot resist the second wave of the recession (which has already hit the euro area) forever. Significant slowdown hits the economy at a time when the euro area economy has started to improve gradually. This could mean that the significant decline in economic growth could be coupled with a possible alleviation of the difficulties.
3

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF SLOVAKIA IN 2011 AND OUTLOOK UP TO 2013

100%
Morvay K., Okáli I., Gabrielová H., Hvozdíková V., Šikulová I., Frank K., Jeck T.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2012
|
vol. 60
|
issue 6
547 – 641
EN
After the start of recovery (in 2010) from previous recession, the development of the Slovak economy in 2011 became more volatile. In the first half of 2011 the positive tendencies continued and the economic development was more favourable than expected, in the second half of 2011 renewed concerns about a new recession emerged. In 2011, some significant changes in development tendencies occurred: the price level growth revived, the public finance balance improved and the employment growth was observed after a longer period. The impacts of debt crisis and the pessimism connected with it were at the time not as negative as expected earlier. Therefore, we are not seeing the recession as the most likely development scenario up to 2013. We are expecting that the economic development in the upcoming years will be accompanied by relatively weak economic growth, with some signs of instability. For the policy makers it will be important, in addition to the stabilization and public finance consolidation, to restore the confidence of economic agents in the economy.
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