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Efficiency of indirect ways of investing in commodities in conditions of polish capital market

100%
Krawiec M.
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
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2011
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vol. 12
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issue 1
105-118
EN
Within last couple of years one could observe record levels of commodity prices and now commodity investments grow in popularity. Although there are possible direct and indirect ways of investing in commodities, the paper focuses on indirect investing through commodityrelated stocks and commodity funds. The research aims at assessing their efficiency in comparison to stock market, so the main index of Warsaw Stock Exchange (WIG) is a benchmark. There were calculated basic characteristics of considered assets and there were tested hypotheses of normality of their logarithmic returns and equality of their means and deviations from mean in relation to the benchmark. As no time series followed normal distribution, Mann-Whitney U test was applied.
2
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Testing the Granger causality for commodity mutual funds in Poland and commodity prices

100%
Krawiec M.
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
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2012
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vol. 13
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issue 2
84-95
EN
The recent increase in commodity price levels has resulted in the launch of a number of new commodity funds also in Poland. Since these funds do not have long quotation records, the study designed to answer the question whether changes in prices of commodities on world markets Granger-cause changes in quotations of participation units in specialized commodity funds in Poland, must have been limited to a 3-year-period. It includes 8 commodity funds, 11 commodities and 2 stock indices. Their log-returns constitute the base for calculating some descriptive statistics, testing for normality and stationarity. In order to achieve the goal of the research the Granger causality test is adopted. Its results exhibit Granger causality between commodity returns and majority of commodity fund returns, whereas in only few cases there is Granger causality running from stock indices returns to commodity funds returns.
3
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Weryfikacja efektywności pośrednich form inwestowania w towary na przykładzie Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index

100%
Krawiec M.
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
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2010
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vol. 11
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issue 2
161-170
PL
Inwestycje na rynkach towarowych zyskują coraz większą popularność. Inwestorzy mają do dyspozycji bezpośrednie i pośrednie formy inwestowania. Wśród nich na uwagę zasługują indeksy towarowe. W związku z tym, że WGT do chwili obecnej nie stworzyła własnego indeksu, polscy inwestorzy nie mają możliwości inwestowania w rodzimy indeks towarowy. W Niemczech od 1988 notowany jest towarowy indeks DBLCI. Celem niniejszej pracy jest weryfikacja efektywności inwestycyjnej tego indeksu w odniesieniu do indeksu DAX. Na podstawie dziennych notowań obu indeksów w okresie 06.02.2006 – 30.12.2009 wyznaczono podstawowe charakterystyki i zastosowano odpowiednie testy statystyczne.
EN
Investments on commodity markets have grown in popularity. There are several direct and indirect ways of investing in commodities. One of the most interesting forms of commodity investments are commodity indices. As the Warsaw Commodity Exchange has not created its own index yet, Polish investors have no opportunity to invest in any domestic commodity index. Whereas in Germany there is quoted the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index created in 1988. The aim of the paper is to assess efficiency of investing in the index in comparison to the stock index DAX. The research covers daily quotations of the two indices from 06.02.2006 to 30.12.2009. These constitutes the basis to calculate fundamental characteristics and to apply proper statistical tests.
4
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Badanie przyczynowosci w sensie GRANGERA na rynku zboz w Polsce w latach 2007-2011

100%
Krawiec M.
Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej
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2013
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issue 1(334)
59-72
EN
The objective of the paper was to analyse the Granger causality on the Polish cereals market. The analysis concerned the 2007-2011 period. The empirical data are average weekly crop prices gathered in the Integrated Agricultural Market Information System and accessible at the website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. Their logarhythmic growths constituted a basis for selected descriptive statistics, and then, the normal distribution and the stationary of time series were verified. The last stage of the analysis was the analysis of Granger causality. To answer the question, whether price changes of a given cereal type are a Granger cause of price changes among another cereal types, Granger test with verification in the form of Wald statistic was used. The results obtained revealed the occurrence of Granger causality in the analysed period, albeit not for all cereal types.
5
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HISTORICAL AND IMPLIED VOLATILITIES: A REVIEW OF METHODOLOGY

100%
Krawiec M.
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
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2013
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vol. 14
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issue 1
304-316
EN
Volatility is a subject of numerous studies. Many of them focus on predictive power of different sources of volatility. Most often, the Black-Scholes implied volatility is believed to outperform historical volatility, although some research demonstrates that implied volatility is a biased forecast of future volatility. Taken into account different opinions, the paper aims at presenting alternative methods for estimating volatility.
6
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ANALYSIS OF CALENDAR EFFECTS IN MARKETS OF PRECIOUS METALS

63%
Krawiec M., Górska A.
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
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2014
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vol. 15
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issue 2
392-402
EN
Calendar effects are anomalies in the behavior of asset prices that may disprove the efficient market hypothesis. The well recognized are: day-of-the-week effect, month-of-the-year effect, holidays effect and turn-of-the-month effect. These anomalies are observed in many financial markets, most often on stock exchanges, thus studies on calendar effects usually focus on stock markets. However, the aim of the paper is searching for the anomalies in precious metals markets (the empirical data covers London daily spot prices from 2008 through 2013). This is the continuation of authors’ prior research aimed at testing weak market efficiency hypothesis for precious metals markets.
7
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Zastosowanie narzędzi analizy technicznej w inwestowaniu na rynkach metali szlachetnych

63%
Górska A., Krawiec M.
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
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2011
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vol. 12
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issue 2
148-157
PL
Inwestycje na rynkach towarowych można podzielić na bezpośrednie i pośrednie. W przypadku inwestycji bezpośrednich najmniej kłopotliwe jest inwestowanie w metale szlachetne, ponieważ nie wymagają szczególnych warunków przechowywania. Do wspomagania decyzji inwestycyjnych na rynkach metali szlachetnych można wykorzystać metody analizy technicznej. Zasady ich stosowania są analogiczne jak w przypadku inwestowania na rynku akcji. Stąd celem niniejszej pracy jest wykorzystanie wybranych wskaźników analizy technicznej do oceny inwestycji na rynkach metali szlachetnych. Materiał empiryczny stanowią ceny spot z rynku londyńskiego, obejmujące okres od stycznia 2005 do maja 2011. Na ich podstawie zostaną wyznaczone średnie ruchome i oscylatory, co pomoże wybrać odpowiednie strategie.
EN
Investments in commodity markets may be divided into direct and indirect ways. In the case of direct ways, investing in precious metals is the least inconvenient as they do not require special storage conditions. In order to support investment decisions in precious metals markets, methods of technical analysis may be used. As technical analysis in commodity markets is no different from that in stock markets, the aim of the paper is to apply some technical analysis indicators to investigate investments in precious metals markets. Empirical data covers London market spot prices for the period January 2005 – May 2011. This is the basis to calculate moving averages and oscillators, which can help to find the right commodity trading strategies.
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