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A Decision Rule for Uncertain Multi-Criteria Pure Decision Making and Independent Criteria

100%
Gaspars-Wieloch H.
Optimum. Studia Ekonomiczne
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2017
|
vol. 3(87)
EN
The paper is concerned with multi-criteria decision-making under uncertainty with scenario planning. This topic has been explored by many researchers since almost all real-world decision problems contain multiple conflicting criteria and a deterministic evaluation of criteria is often impossible. We propose a procedure for uncertain multi-objective optimization which can be applied when seeking a pure strategy. A pure strategy, as opposed to a mixed strategy, allows the decision-maker to select and perform only one accessible alternative. The new approach takes into account the decision-maker’s preference structure (importance of particular goals) and nature (pessimistic, moderate or optimistic attitude towards a given problem). It is designed for one-shot decisions made under uncertainty with unknown probabilities (frequencies), see decision-making under complete uncertainty or decision-making under strategic uncertainty. The novel approach can be used in the case of totally independent payoff matrices for particular targets.
2
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Spare Parts Quantity Problem Under Uncertainty – the Case of Entirely New Devices With Short Life Cycle

100%
Gaspars-Wieloch H.
Multiple Criteria Decision Making
|
2019
|
vol. 14
5-28
EN
The paper presents a new scenario-based decision rule for the spare parts quantity problem (SPQP) under uncertainty with unknown objective probabilities. The goal of SPQP is to ensure the right number of extra parts at the right place at the right time. In the literature, SPQP is usually regarded as a stochastic problem since the demand for extra parts is treated as a random variable with a known distribution. The optimal stock quantity minimizes the expected loss resulting from buying a given number of parts before potential failures. The novel approach is designed for the purchase of non-repairable spare parts for entirely new seasonal devices, where the estimation of frequencies is complicated because there are no historical data about previous failures. Additionally, the decision maker’s knowledge is limited due to the nature of the problem. The new procedure is a three-criteria method. It is based on the Hurwicz and Bayes decision rules and supported with a forecasting stage enabling one to set the scenario with the greatest subjective chance of occurrence. The method takes into account the decision maker’s attitude towards risk and the asymmetry of losses connected with particular stock quantities. We assume that the future unit purchase cost of a service part bought after the breakdown is also uncertain and given as an interval parameter. The approach is designed for short life cycle machines.
3

HOW TO TEACH QUANTITATIVE SUBJECTS AT UNIVERSITIES OF ECONOMICS IN A COMPREHENSIBLE AND PLEASANT WAY? (Jak uczyc ilosciowych przedmiotow na uczelniach ekonomicznych w zrozumialy i przyjemny sposob?)

100%
Gaspars-Wieloch H.
Didactics of Mathematics
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2010
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issue 7(10)
33-48
EN
Nowadays in Poland: the level of pupils‘ and students‘ mathematical skills is constantly decreasing, students refer very seldom to manuals, because they are not able to understand their content, lecturers working at universities are not obliged to have a suitable pedagogical experience, the number of hours designed for mathematical subjects at universities of economics is smaller than it was in the previous decades, university authorities just recommend reducing requirements towards students in order not to loose too many of them at the end of the academic year. The rules mentioned in this article are devoted to help Polish lecturers working at universities of economics to teach economic quantitative subjects (e.g. Operations Research, Statistics, Econometrics, Forecasting and Simulation, Project Management) in a comprehensible and pleasant way. If they manage to fulfill these conditions: the atmosphere in class will be more pleasant, economic quantitative subjects will be better understood by the students, the listeners will be more interested in topics presented by the lecturer, grades will be higher.
4
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Accuracy of the Kaufmann and Desbazeille algorithm for time-cost trade-off project problems

63%
Anholcer M., Gaspars-Wieloch H.
Przegląd Statystyczny
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2013
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vol. 60
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issue 3
341-357
EN
The time-cost tradeoff analysis is a very important issue in the project management. The Kaufmann-Desbazeille method is considered by numerous authors as an exact algorithm to solve that problem, but in some articles it has been proved that for specific network cases the procedure only leads to quasi-optimal solutions. In this paper we calculate the average accuracy of the algorithm for several deterministic and randomly generated networks. The accuracy of the KDA is the worst when: - the network is generated in a deterministic way (an even number of nodes, the network contains only arcs connecting neighbouring nodes, neighbouring even nodes and neighbouring odd nodes, thus it has many critical and subcritical paths with a lot of common arcs), - each type of activities in such a network has very specific time-cost characteristics. The structure of the network has the influence on the performance of KDA. It should be however analyzed together with the distribution of the shortening costs.
PL
Analiza czasowo–kosztowa jest bardzo ważnym elementem zarządzania projektem. Algorytm Kaufmanna–Desbazeille dla tego problemu jest przez wielu autorów określany mianem dokładnego, lecz w kilku pracach wykazano, iż w niektórych przypadkach stosowanie tej procedury prowadzi jedynie do rozwiązań bliskich optimum. W artykule wyznaczamy średnią dokładność algorytmu dla pewnej liczby sieci o z góry ustalonej bądź losowo wygenerowanej strukturze. Dokładność procedury Kaufmanna i Desbazeille jest najniższa, gdy: - sieć jest generowana w sposób deterministyczny (parzysta liczba węzłów, sieć składa się z samych łuków łączących sąsiednie węzły, sąsiednie węzły parzyste i sąsiednie węzły nieparzyste, a więc posiada wiele ścieżek krytycznych i podkrytycznych ze wspólnymi łukami), - każdy typ czynności w tak skonstruowanej sieci ma bardzo specyficzne charakterystyki czasowo-kosztowe. Struktura sieci ma wpływ na wydajność algorytmu. Powinna być jednak analizowana łącznie z rozkładem jednostkowych kosztów skrócenia czynności.
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