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HOW THE CENTRAL BANK MAKES DECISION ON INTEREST RATES? A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FORECAST IMPORTANCE

100%
Szyszko M.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
|
2017
|
vol. 12
|
issue 2
281-294
EN
Research background: Most of the modern central banks (CBs) acknowledge the role of economic agents’ expectations in monetary policy. To shape these expectations and to over-come the lags occurrence, CBs produce and reveal macroeconomic forecast and declare that it is the input into their deliberations and monetary policy adjustments. This is how central banks implement inflation forecast targeting. The formal assessments of actual forecast importance in central banks’ decisions is not presented in the literature — to the best author’s knowledge. Purpose of the article: The paper is of methodological nature. It presents the index that compares inflation forecast importance in the central banks decisions. The elaboration of such index is the main goal of the paper. The index is tested empirically for Czechia and Sweden. Methods: Comparably to other research presenting the tools that approximate some qualitative variables, the methodological part of the paper offers the description of the factors covered by the index with their justification and point attribution. The index is suitable to assess CBs decision’s accordance with the forecast produced under constant rate assumption as well as under endogenous interest rates. It is designed to cover low quality data as the time series on the central path of the forecast are not always accessible. In this cases only the relation of the forecast to the inflation target is revealed on the fan charts. Findings & Value added: The index elaboration and its calculation for Czechia and Sweden is presented in the paper. It thus contributes to the literature on ex post assessment of the central bank’s actions. This formalized assessment opens the field for making further con-clusions on inflation forecast targeting implementations and possible impact of the forecast on the economic agents' expectations.
2
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Maria Magdalena Golec, "Instytucje i usługi bankowe"

100%
Szyszko M.
Bezpieczny Bank
|
2016
|
issue 3 (64)
161-165
3
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Bankowość centralna w świtle doświadczeń dekady 2007-2016. Czy jest miejsce na zmiany strategiczne?

100%
Szyszko M.
Przegląd Zachodni
|
2017
|
issue 2(363)
169-187
EN
Prior to the financial crisis that erupted in 2007 in the United States, monetary policy had been conducted according to theoretical (new neoclassical synthesis) and practical consensuses (Jackson Hole consensus). These consensuses were combined into the central banks’ strategic frameworks. Monetary strategy goal was established together with reaction function and communication strategy. After eruption of the crisis, the central bank mandate was augmented with the explicit support of financial stability. Most central banks gained a new responsibility – macroprudential policy. The conduct of monetary policy and macroprudential policy under one roof creates a new challenging quality. The article’s goal is to assess the redefinition of monetary policy strategy – or more broadly – central banks’ strategy in the light of their newly acknowledged mandate. Up to 2016 central banks did not present a framework of such an enlarged strategy. This situation seems to be temporary. Modern monetary policy which is still central banks’ mandate must shape economic agents’ expectations. Therefore, a state of affairs when central banks avoid a declaration on their own priorities and possible conflict of goals is dissatisfying.
4

Jan L. Bednarczyk, Polityka stabilizacji cen a przeciwdziałanie recesji. Dylematy współczesnej makroekonomii, Polskie Wydawnictwo Ekonomiczne, Warszawa 2018, s. 227

100%
Szyszko M.
Ekonomista
|
2019
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issue 3
387-390
5
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IS IT WORTH REVEALING MORE? CENTRAL BANKS’ TRANSPARENCY AND ITS MEASUREMENT

100%
Szyszko M.
Bezpieczny Bank
|
2016
|
issue 4 (65)
7-26
EN
This paper focuses on monetary policy transparency. Central banks’ practice in the field of communication, especially while signalling their intentions, is not reflected in most known transparency measures. The following paper presents a comparison of the best-known transparency indices and offers an extension to them that focuses on the forward-lookingness of the central bank. A more elaborate approach to signalling intentions is not covered by transparency measures developed in the pre-crisis period. Thus the purpose of this paper is methodological: developing extended transparency measures. Additionally, the application of these extensions is presented. The empirical part of the research covers the Czech Republic and Poland.
6
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CAN INFLATION FORECAST AND MONETARY POLICY PATH BE REALLY USEFUL? THE CASE OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC

63%
Szyszko M., Tura K.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
|
2015
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vol. 10
|
issue 3
9-26
EN
Producing and revealing inflation forecast is believed to be the best way of implementing a forward-looking monetary policy. The article focuses on inflation forecast targeting (IFT) at the Czech National Bank (CNB) in terms of its efficiency in shaping consumers’ inflation expectations. The goal of the study is to verify the accuracy of the inflation forecasts, and their influence on inflation expectations. The research is divided into four stages. At the first stage, central bank credibility is examined. At the second stage – accuracy of the inflation forecasts. The next step of the research covers a qualitative analysis of IFT implementation. Finally, the existence of the interdependences of inflation forecast, optimal policy paths and inflation expectations is analyzed. Credibility of the central bank, accuracy of the forecast and decision-making procedures focused on the forecast are the premises for the existence of relationship between forecasts and expectations. The research covers the period from July 2002 – till the end of 2013. Its methodology includes qualitative analysis of decision-making of the CNB, quantitative methods (Kia and Patron formula, MAE forecasts errors, quantification of expectations, non-parametric statistics). The results confirm the existence of interdependences between inflation forecasts and expectations of moderate strength. The preconditions of such interdependences are partially fulfilled. The research opens the field for cross-country comparisons and for quantification of IFT implementation.
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