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Does Monetary Integration Have an Effect EU’s Trade Change During Economic Crises?

100%
Śledziewska K., Witkowski B.
Ekonomia. Rynek, Gospodarka, Społeczeństwo
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2012
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issue 30
45-58
EN
This paper contributes to the discussion about economic effects of monetary integration and the problem of model stability during economic crisis. The fundamental goal of this research is twofold: firstly, to investigate the effect of different stages of economic integration on export to EU and non-EU countries, from becoming a member of the European Union (EU) to the Eurozone (EZ). Secondly, to check whether the functional form of the model can be considered stable over time as in the meantime the world entered the crisis phase. For an empirical test a data set covering the period from 1994 to 2010 has been used. The standard factors of gravity models, such as the size of the markets of trade partners, GDP per capita of trade partners etc. have been tested in the log-linear specification of the gravity model. In order to control the effect of monetary integration, several dummy variables indicating the process of monetary integration were added. Positive effects of growing GDP and GDP per capita, as usual, are expected. What is also assumed is that participation in amonetary union does not enhance exports to the EU and Eurozone countries. To test for this hypothesis, and to exercise control over additional factors, a model based on panel data with the use of Hausman-Taylor method was estimated. Surprisingly, it was found out that even though the impact of joining the EU and ERM on export has been positive, joining the Eurozone has given the opposite result. It will also be demonstrated that some of the parameters could be considered stable in the long run, but this is not relevant to all of them. Keywords: international trade, monetary integration, gravity model.
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Modelowanie realnej konwergencji w skali międzynarodowej

100%
Próchniak M., Witkowski B.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
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2006
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vol. 211
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issue 10
1-31
EN
The article discusses conditional β-convergence in 126 countries around the world in 1975-2003. The authors offer a theoretical model to explain the essence of convergence. Unlike in most empirical studies, the authors assume that convergence, or the relationship between the rate of economic growth and the initial level of GDP, is not constant but changes over time. The model was constructed on the basis of panel data, using the Fixed Effects estimator and the Generalized Method of Moments estimator developed by Arellano and Bond. The results of the evaluation confirm the existence of β-convergence, which is much faster than suggested by most empirical studies. When per capita GDP is 1% higher, the rate of growth falls by 0.20-0.22 percentage points on average. The β-convergence indicator ranges from 22% to 25%. By assuming that convergence is not constant, the authors proved that there is a strong relationship between the initial level of GDP and the rate of economic growth. This shows that their assumption was fully justified as the main hypothesis of the analysis.
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Card Payments in Poland: Determinants and Prospects

100%
Goczek Ł., Witkowski B.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
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2015
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vol. 277
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issue 3
159-177
PL
Artykuł ma na celu identyfikację głównych czynników mających wpływ na takie charakterystyki rynku płatności bezgotówkowych jak liczba oraz wartość transakcji zawieranych przy użyciu kart płatniczych, liczba posiadanych kart oraz liczba terminali EFTPOS. Estymacja stosownych modeli umożliwia wyznaczenie prognoz wymienionych zmiennych dla Polski w horyzoncie do 2017 r. W analizie wykorzystano przede wszystkim dane panelowe z krajów Unii Europejskiej z lat 2000–2012, zaś do estymacji zastosowano systemowy estymator Blundella i Bonda. Wyniki wskazują na kluczowe znaczenie przede wszystkim wskaźników zaufania społecznego oraz w nieco mniejszym stopniu rozwoju gospodarczego dla rozwoju rynku płatności bezgotówkowych. Jednocześnie prognozuje się dynamiczny wzrost tego rynku w najbliższych latach, zaś dynamika tego wzrostu powiązana jest ze spodziewaną dynamiką wzrostu gospodarczego, przy czym nawet przy przyjęciu pesymistycznego scenariusza wzrostu gospodarczego, wyniki wskazują na oczekiwany znaczny rozwój rynku płatności kartami.
EN
The paper examines Poland’s card payment market. It analyzes the determinants of card transactions and makes projections for the development of this market from 2015 to 2017. Studies point to a strong relationship between the development of cashless transactions and the rate of economic growth recorded by countries, the authors say. The article seeks to identify the key factors driving the card payment market, such as the number and value of card transactions, the number of cards held by individuals, and the number of electronic-funds-transfer-at-point-of-sale (EFTPOS) terminals. The authors build models based on panel data from European Union countries from 2000-2012. They use Blundell and Bond’s system-GMM estimator to treat the results in terms of causality rather than coexistence of the obtained effects. The role of trust in society and GDP growth are found to be important determinants of the development of the cashless transactions market. The authors’ projections suggest that Poland’s cashless transactions market will develop rapidly in the years ahead even if economic growth is slower than projected.
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Odporność wpływu czynników instytucjonalnych w modelach wzrostu gospodarczego

100%
Próchniak M., Witkowski B.
Zarządzanie i Finanse
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2013
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vol. 3
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issue 2
225-243
PL
Celem artykułu jest analiza odporności wpływu wybranych czynników instytucjonalnych (związanych z ochroną praw własności, praworządnością i wolnością polityczną) na tempo wzrostu gospodarczego. Metoda analizy opiera się na równaniach regresji wzrostu gospodarczego, gdzie zmienne instytucjonalne są włączone do zbioru zmiennych objaśniających, razem z innymi czynnikami wzrostu. W celu uzyskania wyników odpornych na wybór zmiennych objaśniających artykuł wykorzystuje Bayesowskie uśrednianie oszacowań dla systemowego estymatora uogólnionej metody momentów Blundella i Bonda. Inne nowatorskie aspekty ujęte w badaniu dotyczą zastosowania panelu z częściowo pokrywającymi się obserwacjami, a także wprowadzenia do modelu elementów nieliniowości. Wyniki pokazują, że w większości przypadków badane zmienne instytucjonalne są nieodporne – przede wszystkim na dobór próby, czyli grupę krajów uwzględnioną w analizie, ale częściowo także na zakres tematyczny i sposób obliczania zmiennej instytucjonalnej przez daną organizację, sposób transformacji danych (5- a 10-letnie podokresy) i postać funkcyjną modelu (poziomy a przyrosty zmiennych). Niemniej jednak – w niektórych przypadkach – pewne podobieństwa w wynikach zostały zauważone, co w naszym przekonaniu zostało częściowo osiągnięte dzięki zaproponowanej metodzie Bayesowskiego uśredniania oszacowań.
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ALTERNATIVE WEIGHTING SCHEMES IN SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF GDP PER CAPITA CONVERGENCE

100%
Próchniak M., Witkowski B.
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
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2014
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vol. 15
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issue 2
198-208
EN
The article analyzes conditional beta convergence in the EU28 countries with the use of spatial econometrics techniques. We consider alternative structure of the spatial weight matrix based on economic distances. Basing on the spatial Durbin-Watson model, two spatial specifications are tested, which make use of the volume of international trade and the inverted GDP per capita differences between the considered objects. We confirm the existence of GDP convergence and show that the gravity-models-type logic is superior to the approach based on inverted geographic distances.
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Determinants of Banks’ Performance: the Case of ROE Of G-SIBs in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe

100%
Iwanicz-Drozdowska M., Witkowski B.
Journal of Management and Business Administration. Central Europe
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2016
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issue 1
46-63
EN
Purpose: The goal of the paper is to analyse the determinants of the level of ROE (return on equity) for two groups of banks, interrelated by capital links, and their banking sectors. Methodology: For the case study, we chose companies that, in 2011–2013, were designated by the Financial Stability Board as global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) and their subsidiaries operating in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) as well as their banking sectors. We sought to identify differences in the performance drivers, taking into account bank-specific and country- (or sector-) specific factors. Findings: We found no significant differences in the level of ROE among the analysed groups; however, we identified a different set of determinants and their impact on ROE.
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Time stability of the impact of institutions on economic growth and real convergence of the EU countries: implications from the hidden Markov models analysis

81%
Bernardelli M., Próchniak M., Witkowski B.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
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2021
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vol. 16
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issue 2
285-323
EN
Research background: It is not straightforward to identify the role of institutions for the economic growth. The possible unknown or uncertain areas refer to nonlinearities, time stability, transmission channels, and institutional complementarities. The research problem tackled in this paper is the analysis of the time stability of the relationship between institutions and economic growth and real economic convergence. Purpose of the article: The article aims to verify whether the impact of the institutional environment on GDP dynamics was stable over time or diffed in various subperiods. The analysis covers the EU28 countries and the 1995?2019 period. Methods: We use regression equations with time dummies and interactions to assess the stability of the impact of institutions on economic growth. The analysis is based on the partially overlapping observations. The models are estimated with the use of Blundell and Bond?s GMM system estimator. The results are then averaged with the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach. Structural breaks are identified on the basis of the Hidden Markov Models (HMM). Findings & value added: The value added of the study is threefold. First, we use the HMM approach to find structural breaks. Second, the BMA method is applied to assess the robustness of the outcomes. Third, we show the potential of HMM in foresighting. The results of regression estimates indicate that good institution reflected in the greater scope of economic freedom and better governance lead to the higher economic growth of the EU countries. However, the impact of institutions on economic growth was not stable over time.
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Rola kapitału zagranicznego w sektorze bankowym dla stabilności finansowej i rozwoju gospodarczego krajów postkomunistycznych

81%
Iwanicz-Drozdowska M., Bongini P., Smaga P., Witkowski B.
Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska, sectio H – Oeconomia
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2017
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vol. 51
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issue 5
EN
The foreign capital in the banking sector plays an important role in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries. The global financial crisis has shown that apart from the positive impact of foreign-owned banks, they also constitute a transmission channel for shocks to host countries. This study covers 20 CESEE countries over the period 1995–2014 and concentrates on the role of foreign-owned banks for financial stability and economic growth. Our results indicate that their role is neutral, however, a negative impact may be indirect because of their aggressive lending policies.
PL
Kapitał zagraniczny odgrywa istotną rolę w sektorach bankowych krajów Europy Środkowej, Wschodniej i Południowej (EŚWP). Globalny kryzys finansowy unaocznił, że kapitał zagraniczny – oprócz pozytywnego wpływu – może stanowić kanał transmisji szoków do krajów goszczących. Badaniem roli kapitału zagranicznego dla stabilności finansowej i rozwoju gospodarczego objęto 20 krajów EŚWP w okresie 1995–2014. Wyniki badań wskazują na neutralną rolę kapitału zagranicznego w sektorze bankowym, chociaż jego negatywny wpływ może występować pośrednio przez agresywną politykę kredytową.
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Konwergencja dochodowa: mocne i słabe strony istniejących podejść

81%
Bernardelli M., Próchniak M., Witkowski  B.
Kwartalnik Kolegium Ekonomiczno-Społecznego Studia i Prace
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2017
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issue 3
71-86
PL
The paper presents the review of the literature on income-level convergence(catching-up). The analysis includes convergence defined as the tendency toward equalization of income levels between countries. Unlike typical survey papers, the article focuses on the identification of weaknesses in the hitherto empirical studies on convergence. Apart from the standard types of the catching-up process (beta and sigma convergence), papers with the alternative measures of convergence(gamma and rho) are also analyzed. Both these elements constitute the value added of this research. The authors conclude that despite many empirical approaches, there is still much room for proposing new theoretical and empirical methods to analyze the catching-up process. Among others, studies that use hidden Markov models in the analysis of convergence are absent.
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