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Strategiczne wybory polityki spójności UE po roku 2020 w świetle dokumentów programowych komisji europejskiej

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Szlachta J., Zaleski J.
Studia komitetu przestrzennego zagospodarowania kraju PAN
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2018
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vol. 183
213-224
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Programowanie rozwoju społeczno – gospodarczego w układach makroregionalnych

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Szlachta J., Zaleski J.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
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2011
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vol. 249
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issue 7-8
21-46
EN
The article focuses on a new approach to socioeconomic development in Poland and the European Union. Special macroregional programs have been adopted for the 2007-2013 period in the EU in connection with the bloc’s territorial cohesion policy. A total of 13 macroregions have been identified, including two covering Poland-the Baltic Sea region and Central and Eastern Europe. The methodology used in the article is based on an analysis of both Polish and EU documents, the authors say. On this basis, Szlachta and Zaleski identified the problems that need to be resolved to take full advantage of the potential of socioeconomic programs in Poland and the EU as a whole. After 2013, the macroregions are expected to play a greater role in the European cohesion policy. Since the local government reform in Poland on Jan. 1, 1999 and the country’s entry to the European Union on May 1, 2004, socioeconomic development has been pursued in Poland not only at the national but also at the provincial level. This model, however, has not made it possible to effectively deal with supra-provincial and interregional problems, according to the authors. A pioneering project for the 2007-2013 period is a Strategy for the Socioeconomic Development of Eastern Poland Through 2020, which covers the five poorest provinces in the country, Lubelskie, Podkarpackie, Podlaskie, Świętokrzyskie, and Warmińsko-Mazurskie. The strategy became the basis for a special European Union operational program for eastern Poland for the 2007-2013 period. In the article, Szlachta and Zaleski discuss experiences and conclusions resulting from this projectin the context of the conditions shaping regional policy in Poland and across the European Union. These conditions have changed substantially in recent years, according to the authors. In 2010, local governments in five Polish provinces, Dolnośląskie, Lubuskie, Opolskie, Wielkopolskie, and Zachodniopomorskie, decided to start working on a strategy for western Poland. At the same time, the Polish Ministry of Regional Development, in cooperation with local governments in the eastern provinces, launched work to update the strategy for eastern Poland. In the final section of the article, the authors discuss the ways in such programs could be used to stimulate Poland’s socioeconomic development.
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Kierunki polityki regionalnej w Polsce do roku 2020

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Szlachta J., Zaleski J.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
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2010
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vol. 243
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issue 10
37-56
EN
The paper discusses the evolution of regional policy in Poland from 1990 to 2010 and examines guidelines for modifying this policy in 2010-2020. Poland’s entry to the European Union in 2004 and European cohesion policy have had a substantial impact on regional policy in Poland. In recent years new important theoretical inspirations have appeared for regional policymakers, including new economic geography and the economics of location. International organizations such as the OECD, the World Bank and the EU are formulating proposals for a major modification of regional policy in the world. The research method is based on a benchmarking analysis and qualitative assessment of program documents. The results obtained by the researchers point to a shortage of theoretical foundations and the growing importance of regional policy to Poland’s socioeconomic development. Szlachta and Zaleski identify various risks connected with the implementation of a modern regional policy in Poland and formulate a set of questions about the theory of regional policymaking. In the first part of the paper, the authors discuss the experience of regional development programming in Poland since 1990. The next part focuses on the financial and institutional dilemmas of regional policymaking in Poland in the coming years. Later on the authors propose benchmarks for a National Regional Development Strategy until 2020. The paper ends with the formulation of key conclusions, recommendations and questions about the theory of regional policymaking.
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Dylematy polityki strukturalnej Unii Europejskiej po roku 2013

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Szlachta J., Zaleski J.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
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2008
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vol. 222
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issue 3
87-103
EN
The paper describes the possible evolution of the European Union’s structural policy in a new policy and budget programming period starting after 2013. The paper consists of an introduction that describes the current situation in this area and follows up with an analysis of conditions resulting from the changing model of the European cohesion policy. A key part of the article is a discussion of some vital problems that should be subject to debate, including the comprehensive nature of structural policy, the “Lisbonization” of the EU’s policies, more effective use of EU funds, territorial cohesion, and the relationship between economic policy and employment in the context of the new structural policy. The authors also define the role of regions and states in this policy and look at the benefits of cohesion policy for environmental protection and natural values. In the final part of the paper, the authors comment on the current organization and course of debate on the reform of cohesion policy and list challenges faced by Poland’s policy makers in the context of European policy reform. The analysis takes into account the EU’s strategic guidelines included in its key documents such as the 2007 Cohesion Report. The authors look at the matter from a Polish perspective and outline Poland’s priorities in the ongoing debate on the need to reform the EU’s structural policy.
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Wpływ spójności terytorialnej na zmiany polityki strukturalnej Unii Europejskiej

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Szlachta J., Zaleski J.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
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2009
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vol. 231
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issue 4
91-110
EN
Expenditure on structural policy is the second largest item in the European Union’s budget. Structural funds and the cohesion fund are intended for the bloc’s poorest countries and regions, and their aim is to increase the cohesion of the entire community. Under the EU reform treaty, the traditional model of economic and social cohesion would be expanded to include a third dimension-territorial cohesion. The authors analyze the implications of the introduction of territorial cohesion to European structural policy. They evaluate EU program documents and research in this area. Szlachta and Zaleski set out to explain why the territorial dimension of European structural policy is important to Poland and why European cohesion policy should be modified after 2013. The paper describes the theoretical foundations of European structural policy, paying special attention to the role of regional factors for community-level intervention and the course of convergence processes. Against this background, the authors describe the EU’s regional policy and its territorial dimension over the past 20 years. The paper also discusses the most important conclusions from a public debate on territorial issues in Europe, and mentions issues such as the EU Green Paper on territorial cohesion and its importance for reforming the EU’s structural policy after 2013.
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Ocena wpływu Narodowego Planu Rozwoju Polski na lata 2004-2006 na gospodarkę przy zastosowaniu modelu HERMIN

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Bradley J., Zaleski J.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
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2003
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vol. 185
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issue 7-8
18-46
EN
Poland’s potential accession to the European Union has necessitated a preparation and presentation to the European Commission of the National Development Plan (NDP) 2004-2006 - the primary document programming the use of structural funds in Poland within the framework of implementation of the EU cohesion policy. Presentation of ex-ante assessment of the macroeconomic effect of NDP realisation on the economy is an integral part of the programming document. For this reason, a Polish implementation of the macroeconomic HERMIN model has been developed. This model was, for the mentioned purposes, applied to European Union areas subject to the cohesion policy, i.e. to Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Greece and to eastern Lands (Lander) of Germany. At present, it has also been prepared for application to the candidate countries, such as the Czech Republic, Latvia, Estonia or Slovenia. The study briefly characterises the theoretical foundations of the HERMIN model and its Polish implementation to the ex-ante assessment of the impact of Poland’s National Development Plan (NDP) 2004-2006 realization on the Polish economy. Consequently, analyses of financial transfers associated with NDP realisation were carried out, taking into account both their breakdown into specific years of the 2004-2009 period, and their breakdown into three major categories: investment in infrastructure, investment in human capital and support for enterprise development. On this basis, simulations for the period up to 2010 were made for two alternative scenarios: the first - assuming Poland’s accession to the EU on 1 May 2004 and implementation of the NDP 2004-2006 and, the second - assuming Poland’s staying outside the EU structure and no implementation of the NDP. The results have been presented as a differential between these two scenarios for such parameters as: GDP growth, unemployment level, production and productivity in the analysed sectors of the economy, i.e. manufacturing, services, agriculture and the public sector, the public sector deficit, consumption, prices and wages. The results are shown as an effect caused exclusively by the EU structural funds, and jointly by the EU funds and Polish public funds within the NDP 2004-2006. Additionally, results of simulations are presented for continued EU support in the years 2007-2013 in the form of another NDP with an annual average support level of 2% and 2.5% of GDP. The results of simulation have been supplemented with an analysis of sensitivity to deviation from the adopted assumptions. At the same time, the study indicates directions for further efforts towards the model’s improvement and its extension into the economies of particular regions of Poland as instruments for analysing the problems involved with regional development, which have to be solved with support o EU Structural Funds, as well as national cofinancing of the public and private sectors.
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Challenges of Future EU Cohesion Policy

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Szlachta J., Zaleski J.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
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2017
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vol. 291
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issue 5
31-49
PL
W UE rozpoczęto debatę na temat kształtu europejskiej polityki spójności (EPS) po roku 2020. Uwarunkowania wewnętrzne i zewnętrzne dla tej debaty są niekorzystne. Globalny kryzys ekonomiczny, który wystąpił po 2007 r., szczególnie dotkliwie dotknął Unię Europejską, zwłaszcza regiony słabe ekonomicznie i peryferyjne. Należy dodać do tego kryzys związany z uchodźcami, wzrost zagrożenia terrorystycznego i dążenia anty integracyjne. Stwarza to wyjątkowe wyzwanie dla przyszłości UE, a w szczególności dla EPS. Celem artykułu jest poszukiwanie odpowiedzi, jak ukształtować wyróżnioną strefę interwencji strukturalnej przy występowaniu wskazanych uwarunkowań zewnętrznych i dopasować ją do zmieniających się potrzeb. Artykuł przedstawia kluczowe elementy EPS, rzeczywiste procesy zachodzące w układzie terytorialnym UE i wskazuję na konieczność wzmocnienia terytorialnego wymiaru EPS. Ponieważ EPS wymaga udoskonalenia w artykule przedstawiono analizę i rekomendacje w zakresie zwiększenia jej kreatywności i elastyczności, niezbędnych uproszczeń w jej wdrażaniu i zwiększaniu jej efektywności. Artykuł przedstawia również problem finansowania EPS w aspektach: udziału w globalnym budżecie UE, kryteriów alokacji funduszy i terytorialnego wymiaru interwencji strukturalnej. Komplementarność i logika interwencji dla poszczególnych Europejskich Funduszy Strukturalnych i Inwestycyjnych jest zaprezentowana. W konkluzjach zawarto rekomendacje dotyczące procesu kształtowania polityki spójności po roku 2020.
EN
A debate on the shape of European Cohesion Policy (ECP) post-2020 has already started in the European Union. It is being waged amid unfavorable conditions, both internal and external. The global economic crisis that erupted after 2007 had a particularly strong effect on the EU, especially its weak and peripheral regions. In addition, Europe has faced a refugee crisis, an increased terrorism threat and anti-integration trends. All this poses a dramatic challenge to the future of the European Union, including ECP. The purpose of this paper is to answer the question of how to configure this sphere of the European Union’s structural intervention and adjust it to changing needs under adverse external and internal conditions. The paper describes the key features of ECP and real processes in the EU’s territorial systems. It also indicates the need to strengthen the territorial dimension of ECP. As ECP requires continued improvement, the paper presents an analysis and recommendations for greater creativity and flexibility of ECP, combined with necessary simplifications and increased effectiveness. Further on, the paper describes how ECP is financed in terms of its share of the EU budget, fund allocation criteria and the territorial scope of EU structural intervention. The complementarity and logic of interventions under individual European Structural and Investment Funds are analyzed. The final section of the paper presents recommendations on how cohesion policy should be shaped after 2020.
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Wrocław – metropolia Polski Południowo-Zachodniej

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Zaleski J., Mogiła Z.
Studia komitetu przestrzennego zagospodarowania kraju PAN
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2018
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vol. 186
176-195
9
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Rola polityki spójności po 2013 r. w procesie konwergencji społeczno-gospodarczej polskich regionów

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Zaleski J., Kudełko J., Mogiła Z.
Studia komitetu przestrzennego zagospodarowania kraju PAN
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2011
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issue 140
39-55
10
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Jakość prognoz płatności w ramach NPR/NSR) a wyniki analizy kontrfaktualnej

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Zaleski J., Mogiła Z., Kudełko J.
Studia Regionalne i Lokalne
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2014
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issue 4(58)
51-69
PL
Wielkość i struktura transferów są jedną z głównych determinant skali oddziaływania polityki spójności (NPR i NSRO) na rozwój społeczno-gospodarczy badanych regionów obok siły keynesowskiego mechanizmu mnożnikowego, parametrów determinujących skalę efektów podażowych oraz początkowych zasobów infrastrukturalnych, kapitału ludzkiego i technicznego uzbrojenia pracy. Celem niniejszego artykułu jest zbadanie wpływu, jaki na wyniki kontrfaktualnej analizy oddziaływania NPR i NSRO na gospodarki polskich województw mają zmiany prognoz publicznych środków finansowych. Przy zastosowaniu 16 makroekonomicznych modeli HERMIN gospodarek polskich województw przeprowadzono symulacje dla okresu 2004–2020, wykorzystując dane finansowe Ministerstwa Infrastruktury i Rozwoju (MIR) udostępniane w latach 2008–2013. Rezultaty badania wskazały, że roczne błędy prognozy transferów unijnych na poziomie regionalnym sięgają nawet 229%, natomiast błędy prognoz alokacji osiągają poziom nawet 32%. Brak trafności prognoz transferów unijnych oraz ich zmienność powodują zniekształcenie wyników badań makroekonomicznych oddziaływania polityki spójności na procesy rozwojowe nawet o 88% w przypadku wyników rocznych i do 40% w przypadku wyników skumulowanych.
EN
The scale and structure of EU funds are one of the key determinants of Cohesion Policy impacts on socio-economic regional development, along with the magnitude of the Keynesian multiplier mechanism, spill-over elasticities, initial stocks of infrastructure, or human and physical capital. The aim of the paper is to analyze how changes in forecasts of Cohesion Policy public financial resources (available in NDPs & NSRFs) affect a counterfactual analysis of the Cohesion Policy impacts on the Polish NUTS-2 regional economies. On the basis of the financial data from the Polish Ministry of Infrastructure and Development which were made available in the years 2008−2013, simulations were carried out for the period 2004−2020 using 16 macroeconomic HERMIN models for the Polish regions. The results show that yearly forecast errors of the EU funds at the regional level account for up to 229%, and the forecast errors of allocations of the EU funds amount even to 32%. The inaccuracy of the forecasts of the EU payments and their volatility considerably distort the results of macroeconomic research of the Cohesion Policy impacts on development processes – even by 88% in the case of the yearly results, and by 49% in the case of cumulative results.
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