The planning policy evaluation and verification of the assumed policy impact on the economic development is the main purpose of HERMIN model construction. Preparation of the National Development Plan (NDP) of Slovak republic (NSRR), co-financed by the European Union funds, was the main cause for construction of HERMIN model of the Slovak Economy. The construction and estimation of this model is discussed in the first half of this paper while the second half consists of the evaluation of three variants of the Slovak National Development Plan and the policy implications. As previous studies have shown, the main question of NDP is not the magnitude of the reallocations but its structure. In this respect, the results of this paper seem to be consistent with the other empirical findings.
Forecasting of future economic development quite a short time after the global economic crisis is more than a complicated task. The main uncertainty is linked to the process of recovery of the world economy from the crisis and the direction of governments' economic policies and their corresponding effectiveness. Nevertheless, it is necessary to develop such forecasts, to collect them and compare with different approaches of particular forecasting works. This article represents the approach of the team of the Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences. Forecast is based on the econometric model B_IER SAS ECM 09q4 and is focused on the GDP and its components, the labour market and public budget revenues. The time horizon is limited to years 2010 and 2015 and continues two years beyond the end of the financial programming period of the EU.
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