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Operation Olive Branch

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Smoleń K.

Facta Simonidis

2019

issue 12

61-84

The empirical goal of this paper is to conduct an in-depth analysis of Operation Olive Branch, with special attention to its underlying circumstances, timeline, and impacts. In order to tackle these aspects of the topic, I formulate the following hypotheses. First, three primary factors ultimately led to an armed offensive by a geopolitically diminished Turkey: the risk of further of expansion of Kurdish influence in northern Syria (a likely scenario in the case of continued support from the United States), the Assad regime’s attack on Sunni rebels in the province of Idlib, and the regional rivalry with Iran. Second, Russia’s approval for Turkey’s intervention in Afrin strengthened the tactical alliance between the two states. At the same time, it increased Turkey’s geopolitical dependence on Russia in the Middle East. Third, Operation Olive Branch generated serious repercussions for Turkey on the international stage. On the regional level, given the disapproving reactions of Iran, Iraq, and Syria, Turkey has found itself isolated in its campaign against Kurdish aspirations to autonomy. On the international level, the operation has exacerbated the crisis in the relations between Turkey and the United States, which may ultimately produce an existential threat to the integrity of NATO. The article confirms all of the stated hypotheses.

Celem podjętych badań jest analiza operacji militarnej „Gałązka Oliwna”, z uwzględnieniem jej uwarunkowań, przebiegu i skutków. Dla potrzeb podjętego problemu przyjęto kilka założeń badawczych. Po pierwsze, ryzyko poszerzenia wpływów Kurdów na północy Syrii, prawdopodobne w przypadku trwałego zaangażowania się Stanów Zjednoczonych w pomoc im; atak Al-Assada na rebeliantów w prowincji Idlib; a także regionalną rywalizację z Iranem należy uznać za zmienne, które zdecydowały o ofensywie Turcji na Afrin. Po drugie, zgoda Rosji na ofensywę Republiki Turcji w prowincji Afrin oznacza umocnienie taktycznego partnerstwa pomiędzy tymi podmiotami. Jednocześnie zwiększa ona geopolityczną zależność Turcji od Rosji w regionie Bliskiego Wschodu. Po trzecie, zaangażowanie Turcji w operację „Gałązka Oliwna” wywołuje poważne międzynarodowe reperkusje dla tego państwa. W wymiarze regionalnym, z uwagi na krytykę ze strony Iranu, Iraku i Syrii, czyni je samotnym w walce z Kurdami. W wymiarze międzynarodowym pogłębia natomiast kryzys w relacjach Turcji ze Stanami Zjednoczonymi. To w dalszej perspektywie może zagrażać spójności Sojuszu Północnoatlantyckiego.

Wpływ wojny hybrydowej w Syrii na pozycję Kurdów w regionie Bliskiego Wschodu

100%

Smoleń K.

Przegląd Zachodni

2020

issue 3 (376)

219-238

The aim of this article is to analyze the impact of hybrid war in Syria on the status of the Kurds in the Middle East. To begin with, the Syrian War constitutes an independent variable of the Kurds’ position within the scope of this analysis. The ongoing warfare is considered as a determining variable due to several factors, including the changing approach of Bashar al- Assad's regime towards the Kurdish minority, the role of third parties implicated in the conflict, in particular Iran, Turkey and the US, as well as the geopolitical influence of the Islamic State’s aggression in Syria. Secondly, the article attempts to “gauge” or determine the status of the Kurds in the Middle East resulting from the abovementioned phenomena. Thirdly, in the context of the previous point, it is relevant to demonstrate the actions taken by the Kurds themselves in terms of their plans and objectives, their success against jihadists, and their relations with important local players and with the US. The following research questions are formulated in the course of the presented considerations: has the status of the Kurds in the region improved as a result of the ongoing warfare in Syria and have they eventually become a noteworthy actor in the conflict, or rather, have they been marginalized, with the problem of Kurdish autonomy in Syria deemed no longer relevant? Does the war in Syria imply the position of the Kurds in the Middle East, and is it significantly influenced by the rivalry of regional and extra-regional powers? The article investigates two research hypotheses. 1) The international position of the Kurds is significantly influenced by the involvement of regional powers as well as the United States and Russia in a hybrid war in Syria, which should be considered a manifestation of their geopolitical rivalry in the Middle East. 2) The involvement of the Kurds in combat against fighters from the so-called Islamic State caused a short-term increase in the international position of this minority. In the long term, the fight between Kurds and jihadists was instrumentally treated by the main "players" in the region as well as the United States and Russia and related to the implementation of their geopolitical interests.

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1 Facta Simonidis

1 Przegląd Zachodni

2 Smoleń K.

1 2020

1 2019

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Operation Olive Branch

Wpływ wojny hybrydowej w Syrii na pozycję Kurdów w regionie Bliskiego Wschodu