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On the Limits and Possibilities of Causal Explanation with Game Theoretical Models: The Case of Two Party Competition

100%
Mueller G. P.
ASK. Research and Methods
|
2012
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vol. 21
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issue 1
69-85
EN
Regression-based path- and structural equation-models have two major drawbacks, if they are used for the causal explanation of social phenomena: they are too deterministic and neglect the intentions of the concerned actors as a central driving force of the analysed processes. In order to explain the distribution-effects of two party competition, this article proposes an alternative modelling approach, which is based on the mathematical theory of repeated games. The article explores the limits and possibilities of this approach with regard to the causal explanation of social phenomena and compares the results with the capabilities of the regression approach. It turns out that game theoretical models are especially useful for explaining the non-presence of social phenomena under given causal conditions.
2
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On the Use of Microsimulation for Investigating Ideological Dissent: Exemplary Analyses of the Values of the European Political Left

100%
Mueller G. P.
ASK. Research and Methods
|
2017
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vol. 26
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issue 1
61-80
EN
This article presents a new approach to the comparison of the meaning of social or political key terms in different national contexts. Instead of relying on classical statistical instruments such as t-tests of the mean attitudes, the author proposes to analyze value conflicts between the mentioned groups. In international surveys like the European Values Study (EVS) the related conflict data are not directly available but can be generated by microsimulation: for this purpose the article proposes to look at the value differences of randomly matched artificial pairs of respondents. The resulting dyadic data-records correspond to simulated virtual encounters of persons with the same or different opinions about a political issue. In this way it becomes possible to measure the amount and the thematic focus of the value conflicts between the protagonists of a key term in different countries: the absence of conflicts between these groups points to the same meaning of the key term, whereas dissent about its attributes is an indicator of semantic differences. The benchmark for assessing these international inter-group conflicts are the national intra-group conflicts, which are generally underestimated. Consequently, an application of the proposed method to an artificial dataset with systematically varying statistical properties suggests that the traditional t-tests of mean attitudes overestimate the international group differences. By considering the internal ideological variation of the compared groups we probably get a more realistic assessment of their international similarities and differences. Thus we dare to tackle with the proposed virtual encounter method a real world problem: the comparative analysis of the values of the political left in Sweden, France, and the UK on the basis of attitudes gathered in the European Values Study (2008). A major result is that income equality is revealed to be an important common value of the political left in the three countries mentioned. Finally, the article points to the possibility of comparing different intra-national groups with regard to their ideologies. By the virtual encounter method it is possible to focus the analysis on a particular country and compare e.g. its national parties or different generations of partisans.
3
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A Field Theoretical Model of the Polish Emigration to Other European Countries

100%
Mueller G. P.
Polish Sociological Review
|
2019
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vol. 207
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issue 3
323-336
EN
This article presents a formalized field theory of international migration. Departing from the theories of Kurt Lewin, the author assumes that the valences of different migration targets create a field of attracting forces, which may trigger long-range “locomotions.” Moreover, the author hypothesizes that the selection among the different migration targets also depends on the perceived opportunities: the higher the number of vacancies at a target and the stronger the reporting about these vacancies by earlier migrants, the stronger the field of perceived opportunities. A mathematical model based on these theoretical assumptions is tested with data about migration from Poland to other EU countries. The goodness of fit of the model is quite high and seems to corroborate its field theoretical foundations. The model is further explored by simulating its behavior for different scenarios of valences and perceived opportunities. The article finishes with a summary from the perspective of analytical sociology.
4
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Coping with Low-Trust Situations in Eastern and Western Europe: On the Role of Justice and Corruption as Buffers of Interpersonal Distrust

100%
Mueller G. P.
Polish Sociological Review
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2011
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vol. 174
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issue 2
181-194
EN
This article focuses on the impact of interpersonal distrust on the perceived locus of control of the concerned person. It is argued that distrust triggers a psychological shift of the perceived locus of control towards distrusted others-a process, which may however be slowed down or even stopped by appropriate subjective or objective buffers. E.g. reliable law enforcement may have this buffering effect as well as the instrumentalisation of the state by corrupt practices. On the bases of interview data form the European Values Study, the article first shows for a great number of Eastern and Western countries the existence of the postulated negative impact of distrust on the degree of perceived internal control. In a second step, the article also investigates the buffering effects of trustworthy law enforcement and corruption. The statistical analyses demonstrate that in Central and Eastern Europe, corruption has a much stronger buffering effect than law enforcement, whereas in Western Europe, the strengths of the two types of buffers are just the reverse.
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