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Economic sentiment indicators and their prediction capabilities in business cycles of EU countries

100%

Tkacova A., Gavurova B.

Oeconomia Copernicana

2023

vol. 14

issue 3

977-1008

Research background: The post-World Financial Crisis period has showed us that an application of the qualitative data focused on the expectations of the enterprises and consumers in a combination with the quantitative data in the individual economy sectors is a good prerequisite for reliable prediction of the economic cycles. Purpose of the paper: The main goal of the presented study was to test the ESI prediction capabilities and its components in a relation to the economic cycles of the EU countries in the individual time periods. Methods: The time series for the period Q1 2000 to Q4 2022 and the three selected time periods were a subject to undergo the selection of the cyclical component applying the Hodrick-Prescott filter and then, the relationship between the variables was determined employing the Pearson correlation coefficient with the time shifts. The relation of ESI and its components to GDP and the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), which represent the economic cycle, was analysed. The prediction volume and the cross-correlation values determined the nature of the observed cyclical variables. Findings & value added: The results of the analysis point to the fact that ESI and its components are able to ensure a high-quality prediction of the economic cycle only in the selected EU countries. Regarding the components of the ESI, the Consumer confidence indicator, Construction and Industrial confidence indicators show the best predictive capabilities. The analytical outcomes show that the ESI size and lead period vary over time and after the 2008 crisis, the ESI showed better predictive capabilities in a relation to GDP and IIP than before the crisis. The Covid 19 pandemic had a significant negative impact on the ESI predictive capabilities.

The importance of evaluation of economic determinants in public procurement processes in Slovakia in 2010-2016

81%

Tkacova A., Gavurova B., Danko J., Cepel M.

Oeconomia Copernicana

2017

vol. 8

issue 3

367-382

Research background: Public procurement is designed to efficiently spend public sector financial resources. This should lead to savings in public funds. Domestic and foreign studies point to the fact that sufficient competition on the supply side is the condition for achieving those savings. Slovakia currently belongs to a group of countries with low competition on the supply side of the tender. Every year, about 10,000 tenders will be made in Slovakia for 5 billion Eur. However, contracting authorities have difficulty with establishing the estimated contract value and defining non-discriminatory criteria. On the other hand, contractors lack the expertise to prepare tenders, specifications are often tailored to specific bidders or products, and the price criterion has a negative impact on the quality of the goods and services purchased. Purpose of the article: The aim of the study was to investigate the impact of selected efficiency determinants on savings in public procurement in Slovakia in 2010-2016. The number of bids, the subcontractor's participation, the narrower competition and the impact of the narrower competition and the expected price on the number of bids have been examined. Methods: The survey sample consisted of 800 randomly selected public procurement con-tracts from different sectors in 2010?2016. The contracts were split on the basis of the median estimate of the above-limit (409 contracts) and below-limit (391 contracts) contracts; the divestment value was the estimated price of 400,000 Euro (without the tax). Findings & Value added: The number of offers positively influences the creation of savings in public procurement, an average of 5-6%. The impact of a narrow competition was significant, which led to a decrease in savings of 3-4% compared to the open competition if the sample was 800 contracts and over 400,000 Euro (without the tax). For below-limit orders, this determinant was shown to be statistically insignificant. The size of the contract did not affect the number of successful candidates. Also, the negative impact of narrower competition on the number of tenders was demonstrated. These findings are in line with the presented research studies. In the future, we plan to perform sectoral analyses to verify the validity of the hypotheses under review based on the results of our research.

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2 Oeconomia Copernicana

2 Gavurova B.

2 Tkacova A.

1 Cepel M.

1 Danko J.

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1 2017

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Economic sentiment indicators and their prediction capabilities in business cycles of EU countries

The importance of evaluation of economic determinants in public procurement processes in Slovakia in 2010-2016