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  1. 2 Annales Scientia Politica

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  1. 2 Duleba A.

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  1. 1 2022

  2. 1 2014

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O POVAHE TZV. UKRAJINSKEJ KRÍZY

100%
Duleba A.
Annales Scientia Politica
|
2014
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vol. 3
|
issue 2
48 – 53
EN
This article aims at identifying a nature of the current Russo-Ukrainian crisis. It argues that the crisis is not accidental and short term episode, but it is necessary and objective outcome displaying long term development trends in and/or of Europe after the end of bipolar conflict. The author backs his argument by comparing different integration dynamics in the Western and Eastern parts of Europe. The collapse of the communist block helped to deepen the integration process in the Western part of Europe and it also pushed the EU to be more engaged in its neighbourhood through offering integration perspective to former communist countries as well as through offering European perspective to the Western Balkans. The Eastern partnership with the association agreement, including Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area, has become the EU response on Russia’s military intervention against Georgia in August 2008. The EU failed to establish a joint European project under the name of Common Spaces with Russia (2003-2006), therefore, confrontation between two integration projects in Europe - the one led by the EU and the other one by Russia - has to appear sooner or later.
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SCENÁRE VYÚSTENIA RUSKO-UKRAJINSKEJ VOJNY: DOPADY NA EURÓPSKU BEZPEČNOSŤ A MEDZINÁRODNÉ VZŤAHY

100%
Duleba A.
Annales Scientia Politica
|
2022
|
vol. 11
|
issue 2
63 - 82
EN
This article offers an analysis of the scenarios of outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war and their impact on European security. The basis of each scenario is a definition of the interests of both Russia and Ukraine in this war, a hypothetical description of the assumptions of their fulfilment (full success of one or the other country in the war or partial success) and, at the same time, the expected impact of the full or partial success of one or the other country, i.e., direct actors of the war, on the international order. The scenario analysis is based on an examination of the course of fighting in the period from the beginning of the Russian invasion on the 24th February (until the end of November) to identify the degree of probability of the fulfilment of each scenario.
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