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1

Macroeconomic Conditions of Shares' Market Price Indicators

100%
Lon E.
Pieniądze i Więź
|
2005
|
vol. 8
|
issue 2(27)
83-93
EN
The article presents macroeconomic conditions of share market price indicators. It analyses the character and intensity of relations between the chosen price indicators' levels in the year T and real GNP changes in the year T+2. The research included relationship between the average level of price indicators and the average level of consumer mood, labour market conditions and Fitch IBCA ratings. The research included the correlation of presidential cycle and the price indicators levels. The research resulted in constructing global indicator including the correlation. It has also tried to answer the question whether the difference between the opposite to P/E indicator and bonds' rating may be a good barometer of the future return rate from Standard & Poor 500 Index. In the research a strong correlation between the P/BV indicator level and the dividend rate in the year T and the real GNP changes in the year T+2 was observed. Therefore price indicators may constitute a proper barometer of the future business activity level. The price indicators are related to the consumer moods. The higher are the share prices of enterprises at the Exchange, the higher rating level, the better the labour market condition and the better current business operating indicators. It has been proved that the difference between the opposite of price indicator P/E and the treasury bonds ratings is a proper barometer of USA share market. Due to the specific macroeconomic character of emerging markets it is difficult to use that indicator in the emerging share markets group. The statistic and econometric methods were used in the study. The research included calculating mathematical average and correlation features. The exchange indexes characterising share market level came from the Morgan Stanley Investment Banking data base and from the Polish Exchange Gazette 'Parkiet'.
2

Macroeconomic Conditions of Stock Exchange Prosperity in Selected Countries of Eastern and Central Europe

100%
Lon E.
Pieniądze i Więź
|
2005
|
vol. 8
|
issue 4(29)
131-145
EN
The article presents researching stock market prosperity in relation to the future economic activity level in selected countries of Eastern and Central Europe. The positive correlation exists. In Poland and Hungary the correlation is the strongest. The correlation between stock market prosperity and future economic activity level in Eastern and Central Europe is generally a bit lower than in the mature economies because of the smaller role played by stock market in the economy. The important role in shaping prosperity cycle of Eastern and Central European stock markets plays the USA presidential cycle. In all the countries we can observe both macroeconomic and stock market presidential effect. National budget conditions play an important role in shaping future stock market prosperity. The worse the budget condition as measured by net budget result to GNP in a given year, the higher the Stock Exchange index rate return in the following year.
3

Investment vs. Share Market Profitability

100%
Lon E.
Pieniądze i Więź
|
2005
|
vol. 8
|
issue 3(28)
47-58
EN
The article analyses the relation between investments and share market profitability. The research covered the investment effect in the USA and other countries. It measured the monetary policy influence on stock market index Standard & Poors' return rate. The research included also the degree of economy globalisation in a given country to explain the mechanism combining market share values and future investment tendencies in the mature and emerging economies. The researchers compared direct and indirect investment effect in chosen countries. The research proves that FED expansive monetary policy in a year T positively influences and the restrictive one negatively influences share market in the same year. The expansive policy leads also to the much higher investments next year than the restrictive one. Between the stock market index rate in a given year and real investment changes in the next year there is a positive correlation. The value of this relation reflects the strength of investment effect. Its importance describes the indicator measuring the relation between emission revenues and investment expenditure. The characteristic feature of emerging markets is that their share markets predict especially future domestic investment activities. Share market is more effective as a transmission channel than traditional rate. It is visible in all the mature markets. The investment effect can be observed also in the relation between stock exchange index and accompanying changes of business optimism.
4

Stock Exchange as a Barometer of Macroeconomic Situation

100%
Lon E.
Ekonomika i Organizacja Przedsiębiorstwa
|
2006
|
issue 5(676)
21-29
EN
The author examines the character and intensity of relationship between stock exchange index return and real dynamic of industrial production in a group of 16 OECD countries. Based on the set of countries with mature market economies, some regularities in relations between boom or slump on the stock exchange and future industry situations are detennined. In author's opinion Polish stock exchange is an efficient tool to forecast the Polish industry future situation.
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