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Zastosowanie testu koniunktury w ilościowych prognozach na rynku usług bankowych w Polsce

100%
Matusewicz R.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
2002
|
vol. 72
199-210
EN
Business test survcys havc dcvclopcd with great success throughout the world. A great majority of surveys focus on diagnosis and prognosis of the economic situation in trade, manufacturing, and the construction industry. Whereas, the service sector is still a relatively new field which uses business test surveys. One of the earliest applications of the method in the service sector are surveys conducted by the Marketing Research Department of Poznan University of Economics. They have been carried on sińce 1992 and have focused on the fmancial market - banking and insurance services. Despite many advantages of the method, banking managers complain that it provides only qualitative information, which is morę difficult to interpret than quantitative one. The paper aims at presenting that business test survey could be also a powerful tool in building quantitative forecasts. For the purpose of quantifying business survey data, the regression procedures are used. The paper presents four models based on business survey results, calculated for predicting value of zloty deposits and zloty loans in Poland. Ex post analysis of accuracy of forecasts proves that in three of four estimated models business survey results could also provide good quantitative forecasts.
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