In this paper, we present some examples to illustrate the use of selected financial methods for the portfolio optimization of power generation assets. We start with classical MV theory, followed by dynamic variants to MV portfolio optimization, and eventually how fuzzy set theory can be used in portfolio optimization of power generation assets. In light of the ongoing liberalization process of the energy markets, and the risks and uncertainties created by rising shares of renewable electricity in the spot market, we present real option model specifications that can be used by energy companies to run these assets profitably and to make rational new investments in conventional power plants. Such models can help to determine the optimal timing to invest (or disinvest) in power plants, and can thus be powerful and useful tools for decision-makers.
PL
W niniejszym artykule zostały zaprezentowane przykłady zastosowań wybranych metod optymalizacyjnych portfeli na rynku energetycznym, takich jak klasyczna teoria portfela Markowitza, dynamiczne ujęcie optymalizacji portfela czy wykorzystanie teorii zbiorów rozmytych do tworzenia portfeli. W świetle liberalizacji rynku energetycznego, jak również wzrastającego ryzyka związanego z coraz większym udziałem odnawialnych źródeł energii w procesie generowania energii, autorzy artykułu proponują także zastosowanie teorii opcji realnych w procesie decyzyjnym. Modele opcji realnych pozwalają, między innymi, na określenie optymalnego terminu realizacji inwestycji (czy też dezinwestycji) i mogą służyć jako alternatywna metoda w procesie podejmowania decyzji.
The aim of this paper is to show and compare different levels of risk during a day and during a week on spot markets from the Polish Power Exchange (POLPX) and the European Energy Exchange (EEX). Based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) the classification of contracts from the two power exchanges was made. The classification was made for linear rates of return of 24 contracts listed on the power exchanges from 01.2009 to 24.10.2012. Additionally, the 24 contracts were divided into seven groups dependent on the day of a week. Based on these data sets the classification of risk during a week was made.
The aim of this paper is to describe and measure risk on the Polish & German Energy Market. The risk was estimated with three types of Value-at-Risk measures: VaR, stress VaR and Incremental Risk Charge (IRC). These measures were calculated on time series of logarithmic daily rates of return of indexes from the Polish Power Exchange (POLPX) andthe European Energy Exchange (EEX) spot market. Based on time series from 01.2009 to 28.09.2012 we attempted to answer the two questions: which measure is more appropriate for risk estimation, and where the risk level is higher.
The aim of this paper is a comparative analysis of contracts on electric energy at Polish Power Exchange (POLPX) and European Energy Exchange (EEX) spot markets. The approach considered in this article is based on minimization of the Conditional Value at Risk and maximization of portfolio rates of return. The analyzed portfolios were constructed with contracts noted on POLEX and EEX from 1st January 2011 to 31st December 2012.
The aim of this paper is a comparative analysis of contract electric energy portfolios at Polish Power Exchange (POLPX) and European Energy Exchange (EEX) spot markets. The multi-criteria approach proposed in this paper is based on minimization of the Conditional Value at Risk with the confidence level 0.95 and maximization of portfolio rates of return. The analyzed portfolios have been constructed independently for each power exchange (for investors who are interested to invest on one market only), as well as for POLEX and EEX together (for investors who invest on more than one market) with two criteria.
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