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The effectiveness of discriminant models based on the example of the manufacturing sector

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RADOSIŃSKI E., TOMCZAK S.
Operations Research and Decisions
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2017
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vol. 27
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issue 3
81-97
EN
The best models of bankruptcy prediction have been selected that can indicate the deteriorating situation of a company several years before bankruptcy occurs. There are a lot of methods for evaluating the financial statements of enterprises, but only a few can assess a company as a whole and recognise sufficiently early the deteriorating financial standing of a business. The matrix method was used to classify companies in order to assess the models. The correctness of the classification made by the models was tested based on data covering a period of five years before the bankruptcy of enterprises. To analyse the effectiveness of these discriminant models, the financial reports of manufacturing companies were used. Analysis of 33 models of bankruptcy prediction shows that only 5 models were characterized by sufficient predictive ability in the five years before the bankruptcy of enterprises. The results obtained show that so far a unique, accurate, optimal model, by which companies could be assessed with very high efficiency, has not been identified. That is why it is vital to continue research related to the construction of models enabling accurate evaluation of the financial condition of businesses.
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Verification of a model as a scientific tool of operations research – a methodological approach

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RADOSIŃSKI E., RADOSIŃSKI Ł.
Operations Research and Decisions
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2018
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vol. 28
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issue 3
45-62
EN
The aim of the research presented in this paper was to solve one of the fundamental problems of modelling and simulation, i.e., verification of a model as a scientific tool of operations research. To attack this problem, certain crucial issues in the philosophy of science (the demarcation problem, the principle of verifiability) must be redefined. In discussing the question of verification, a procedure (the so called RAD-VER procedure) for verifying a model of a microeconomic system, in our case – a firm, is formulated. It is assumed that verification is a ceaseless process of evaluating a model’s scientificity from the standpoints of deductive reasoning, coherency and empiricism. Verification has been divided into two stages: the verification of the assumptions underlying the model of a firm and the verification of the simulator.
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Construction of a flexible simulation model of a corporation

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RADOSIŃSKI E., RADOSIŃSKI Ł.
Operations Research and Decisions
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2019
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vol. 29
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issue 1
75-95
EN
The instability of the real structure of a firm is one of the fundamental problems in simulating microeconomic systems. This paper proposes a method, called ACV (abstraction – gradual concretization – verification) for constructing a flexible simulation model of a corporation. This method is based on the assumption that an effective approach to simulating a microeconomic system should take into account the structural instability of the modelled object. Practical implementation of the ACV method is illustrated using the EK_AN simulator of a firm. The purpose of the simulator as a scientific tool of operations research is to analyse the relations of given inputs (decisions) with the short- and mediumterm forecasts of a firm’s economic performance.
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