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EN
The advancing warming of Earth climate has largely been influenced by natural causes, i.e. increased Solar activity and decreasing volcanic activity on Earth. It still remains unknown which part of the warming process results from the increased amount of Solar energy reaching Earth surface, and which is being caused by the anthropogenic part of atmosphere's greenhouse effect. The facts speaking in favour of natural factors include synchronic changes of mean air temperature on the Northern hemisphere between 1856 - 2002, mean consecutive 11-year Wolf numbers, and the location of mass centres of the four biggest planets in our Solar system. The theory of natural causes of climate warming is also backed by synchronic changes in carbon dioxide concentration and paleotemperature within the last 160,000 years and 450,000 years, recreated based Antarctica ice cores. Warmings occur every 100,000 years. They are triggered by increased Solar radiation in large geographic latitudes resulting from changes in Earth orbit and Earth axis slant (according to the already accepted Milankovic theory). “Parallelism” of changes in CO2 concentration and paleotemperture shows that the atmospheric content of carbon dioxide is shaped by the amount of Solar radiation reaching Earth - through shifts in ocean waters temperature. It is more credible to claim that “CO2 concentration in atmosphere rises along with the amount of Solar radiation reaching Earth surface (i.e. when it is warmer).”
EN
The objective of the work is to determine the periodicity and trends of change in air temperature and precipitation in Poland in the time period of the 18th-20th centuries, together with the forecast for the 21st century. There are interesting diagrams of the temporal changes of solar activity and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indicator, with the forecast reaching the year 2100. The forecasts were obtained on the basis of interpretations of the Wolf number and NAO indicator cycles, determined with the method of ”regression sinusoids”. The fluctuations of the air temperature and precipitations during w inter in Warsaw and in Cracow are closely correlated.
EN
The more important research results on the impact of building development and vegetation on the local climate, conducted in Warsaw in the years 1959-2009 by the Department of Climatology, are presented. Majority of the issues associated with determining the deformation of air temperature limits (urban heat islands), humidity and wind vector areas, because of buildings in housing estates, located in various parts of the city, were resolved in master's thesis. Areas with high building density are characterized by slow cooling and warming pace, especially during the summer months. Spatial changes in the urban heat islands in the east-west direction well describe the latitudinal profiles (W-E) of air temperature differences (∆T ≥ 0) between the city and its urban fringe. The urban heat island ∆T does not appears till 5PM, initially in the Central City District. Spatial diversity of effective temperature and catathermal cooling allowed to mark off in housing estates ( „Stawki”, „Służew nad Dolinką”, „Sady Żoliborskie”) places with perceptible conditions, e.g. heat, warmth, comfort, cold.
EN
The paper describes tendencies in changes of air temperature in Poland and Ukraine on the basis of a long series of measurements made in Warsaw (1779-2000), Cracow (1826-2000), Lviv (1824-2002) and Kiev (1812-2002). Air temperature in these cities in the years 1825-2002 is positively correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index. Values of the r correlation coefficient are much higher in winter months than during the summer and they decrease with distance from the Atlantic Ocean. Of interest are air temperature changes in Warsaw, Cracow, Lviv and Kiev in the XIXth -XXth centuries together with forecasts until the year 2100. Significant dependence of the climate of Poland and Ukraine on the NAO index stems from similar temperature cycles and the eight-year, eleven-year and one-hundred-year NAO index. Forecast credibility results from the similar periodicity of air temperature, the NAO index and solar activity. The forecast mean annual temperature values for 2001-2100 were obtained from the interference of statistically important temperature cycles, determined by the sinusoidal regression method.
EN
Content fluctuations of the oxygen isotope δ18O in the Devon Island ice core during the last 100 000 years are a measure of climate fluctuations in the Northern Hemisphere. The course of content of the oxygen isotope δ18O and the sums of solar radiation reaching the upper edge of the atmosphere are characterized by approximate minima and maxima (by positive correlation). This proves that, during the last hundred thousand years, climate fluctuations (cooling and warming) in the Northern Hemisphere were conditioned by long-term changes of the orbit and altitude of the Earth's axis. Climate fluctuation forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere were developed for the next 40 000 years on the basis of the established periods of change of the oxygen isotope δ18O and the known solar radiation periodicity. Climate changes in Europe during the last 25000 years were presented together with a forecast for 1000 years (according to organic substances in deposits and radiation) as well as climate changes in Europe in the period from -500 years BP to 2100 AD (according to δ18O and pine tree-rings). It showed that climate changes depended on the concentration of planet mass in relation to the ecliptic plane (from the gravitational impact of planets on the Sun). Concentration courses of planet mass in the Solar System and climate fluctuations in the Northern Hemisphere were compared. Of interest are examples of synchronic fluctuations, i.e. dispersal of planet mass in the Solar System, the widths of pine and spruce tree rings and air temperatures in Europe.
EN
The paper demonstrates a dependency between the annual average daily air temperature course (cycle) in Warsaw and the profile of annual solar activity linked to rotation (with a period of 25-31 days). Waves of cold (ΔT <0) or heat (ΔT≥ 0) were defined as ΔT deviations of daily average temperature (T) using a regression sinusoid f (t) with a period of 365 days. Cold waves were found to generally occur at times of low daily average solar activity (relative to 60-year average), while hot waves tended to coincide with high Wolf numbers. The cycles of the variables were derived using the sinusoid regression method (Boryczka 1998). The maximum sinusoid regression of the annual air-temperature cycle T is delayed by nearly one month vis-à-vis the maximum declination of the Sun. The maximum of the regression sinusoid of daily average Wolf numbers (W) was delayed from the maximum declination by more than two months.
EN
The air temperatures recorded at Warsaw-Okęcie in 1951-2010 were compared with forecasts for the period 1980-2010 and 1991-2010, i.e. 31 and 20 years ahead. Accurate predictions of air temperatures in Warsaw in 1980-2010 were calculated using the cycles identified by applying the sinusoidal regression method to a series of monitoring results obtained in Warsaw between 1779 and 1979. The high accuracy of these forecasts is the result of a similar progression of measured and forecast values over a number of years. The prediction of climate change in the Northern Hemisphere for example, caused by interference of long solar radiation cycles as well as variations in the concentrations of the δ18O oxygen isotope in the Arctic ice cores, requires a larger series of data points.
EN
Heat and cold waves in Warsaw (the Okęcie district) have been determined determined basing on daily average air temperature values in Warsaw (the Okęcie district), measured for 60 years between 1951 and 2010. Air temperature cycles, i.e. periods, amplitudes and phases have been determined by means of a sinusoidal regression method. Especially worth noting are 15 to 18-day long cycles of air temperature in given months (e.g. 16-day long cycles during 6 months: March, April, May, August, September, and October). Heat and cold waves result from interferences of cycles whose duration ranges from several to teen days of daily temperature values, and long-term cycles of average annual temperature.
EN
The objective of the work is to determine the periodicity and trends of change in air temperature in Warsaw and in Lviv during the 18th-20thcenturies, together with the forecast for the years 2000-2100. There are interesting diagrams of temporal changes of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indicator and air temperature, with the forecast reaching the year 2100. The forecasts were obtained on the basis of interpretations of the Sun activity and the NAO indicator cycles, determined with the method of ”regression sinusoids”. The fluctuations of air temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation during winter in Warsaw and in Lviv are closely correlated.
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