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1

ARE THE CONFIDENCE INDICATORS MEANINGFUL FOR FORECASTING REAL ECONOMY? TESTING POWER OF CONFIDENCE INDICATORS FOR INDUSTRY OUTPUT, PRICES AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE VISEGRÁD GROUP COUNTRIES

100%
Nežinský E., Baláž V.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2016
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vol. 64
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issue 10
923 – 936
EN
This paper examines predictive power of the confidence indicators for developments in industrial output, producer prices and employment in the Czech and Slovak Republics, Hungary, and Poland (V4 countries). The Granger Causality tests are used for establishing potential causation between the confidence indicators and real economy data. The best OLS models with autoregressive terms complemented by confidence indicators are selected and their predictive accuracy is tested against the ARMA benchmarks with the Diebold-Mariano test. All OLS models performed better than the naïve ones .We conclude that the actual CI variables seem to reflect future patterns of economic development in next 1 – 2 months, and not just opinions by economic agents based on current or past economic trajectories.
2

INSTITUTIONAL IMPROVEMENT: BENCHMARKS WITHIN EASY GRASP

100%
Nežinský E., Fifeková E.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
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2024
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vol. 72
|
issue 9-10
479 – 494
EN
The 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics has confirmed the importance of institutional quality in driving economic performance and framing ongoing trends. We demonstrate the importance of institutional quality and assess institutional quality of CEE countries with additional focus on the V4 countries via composite indicator under benefit-of-the-doubt aggregation weighting scheme. We investigate benchmarks in six dimensions of institutional quality World Governance Indicators as a result of employing two nonparametric performance-frontier estimation techniques. Without specifying preferences or adjustment costs, both the conventional approach and the “closest target” procedure offer decision makers a choice from a Pareto-efficient set of targets. In setting policy goals, major trade-offs should be considered between ambitions for accountability and regulatory quality, on one hand, and government efficiency and corruption control, on the other.
3

DO MOTORWAYS INDUCE WIDER ECONOMIC BENEFITS? EVIDENCE FROM THE SLOVAK REPUBLIC

81%
Baláž V., Dokupilová D., Nežinský E.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2018
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vol. 66
|
issue 5
431 – 464
EN
This paper analyses wider economic and social impacts of motorways. It analyses the development of socioeconomic variables in the Slovak LAU 1 regions in the period 1997 – 2016. Difference in differences, panel regression with fixed effects, and synthetic control methods (SCM) are applied so as to identify potential long-run effects of motorways on regional economies and societies. The paper finds positive effects of motorways on wages, the number of firms, and internal migration. An SCM is the best procedure for measuring wider economic benefits of motorways when the number of treated units is low or there is only one treated unit.
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