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NATIONALISATION OF THE CZECH LOCAL PARTY SYSTEM: CASE STUDY OF THE 2010 LOCAL ELECTIONS IN MUNICIPALITIES WITH EXTENDED POWERS

100%
Maškarinec P.
Sociológia (Sociology)
|
2015
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vol. 47
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issue 6
625 - 656
EN
The question of party system nationalisation has recently come to the fore of research activities, as it emphasizes the importance of spatial aspects of the overall institutionalization of the party systems. However, within this topic, one area remains almost completely ignored. Specifically, it is an analysis of the interdependence of local party systems with the country’s national party system. In this article, we seek to address this existing gap in scholarly inquiry by examining local party system nationalisation using data from the 2010 local elections in the Czech Republic. We analyse the degree of local party system nationalisation (employing Kjær and Elklit’s index of local party system nationalisation) and test hypotheses about the effects of population size and other independent variables on varying degree of local party system nationalisation in 205 municipalities with extended powers and the capital city of Prague. We conclude that the best way to express the degree of local party system nationalisation is in the effective terms. At the same time, we found two variables, which proved to have the greatest significant independent impact on the degree of local party system nationalisation – population size and competitiveness.
2
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PROSTOROVÁ ANALÝZA PREZIDENTSKÝCH VOLEB V ČESKÉ REPUBLICE V ROCE 2013

100%
Maškarinec P.
Sociológia (Sociology)
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2013
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vol. 45
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issue 5
435 – 469
EN
This article presents an analysis of the Czech presidential elections from the spatial analysis perspective in 2013. The main method applied for classifying the electoral results were spatial autocorrelation and spatial regression which play an important role in spatial statistics and spatial econometrics. First, the regionalisation of the presidential vote is measured to identify the specific regional clusters of votes; the global test (a Moran’s I statistic), and also local indicators of spatial association (a LISA statistic) are used. Secondly, the spatial regression is used to identify the key underlying factors explaining the spatial variation of the electoral results. The analysis proves an independent effect in the case of Morava macro-region for the territorial differences in voting decisions in the presidential elections, in contrast to the Czech parliamentary elections. On the other hand, in the case of the second analysed macro-region (formerly German-inhabited Sudetenland) no such independent effect is evident. Finally, after controlling for the impact of the spatial regimes, the independent effect of non-spatial indicators is analysed. The findings suggest that other factors, with independent effects to the electoral results, was largely easily interpretable. Their effect was largely similar to the impact of these indicators, which previous studies reported in the parliamentary elections, reflecting not only support of the strongest Czech political parties, but also, to a certain extent, the current form of the Czech party system cleavage structures.
3
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FOR WHOM THE BELL TOLLS: GRIEVANCE THEORY AND THE RISE OF NEW POLITICAL PARTIES IN THE 2010 AND 2013 CZECH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

63%
Maškarinec P., Bláha P.
Sociológia (Sociology)
|
2014
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vol. 46
|
issue 6
706 – 731
EN
This article presents an analysis of the electoral success of new political parties in the 2010 and 2013 Czech parliamentary elections. The article uses the grievance theory for explaining the reasons behind inter-regional variation of electoral support for the Public Affairs Party, ANO 2011, and the Dawn of Direct Democracy of Tomio Okamura. We use two grievance mobilization models which focus on economic changes and immigration/ethnic conflict. The study discusses grievance mobilization models and tests them on aggregate regional data using linear regression analysis. Overall, the study finds that the explanatory capacity of grievance theory mobilization models is very low. This is especially the case of economic grievances, but even ethnic mobilization models were only moderately successful. While neither model performed well when controlling for education and age structure, the models including contextual variables had the best explanatory ability. As the total amount of variance explained by the regression models was very low, future research should search for other factors explaining the reasons for the rise of the new parties. The theoretical model of grievance mobilization should be applied on individual data from surveys that are able to account more adequately for existing grievances in society, including political grievances, which are very difficult to observe at the aggregate level of analysis.
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