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DEBIASING EFFECT OF COUNTERFACTUALS

100%

Strachanová D.

Človek a spoločnosť. Internetový časopis pre pôvodné teoretické a výskumné štúdie z oblasti spoločenských vied

2019

vol. 22

issue 3

1 – 10

Often, the decision-making situation is unclear, and we do not have enough relevant information. In this case we use shortcuts, which can lead to cognitive biases. Cognitive biases can affect our decision-making processes, and we are not able to make the decision in an unbiased way. They are present in a wide range of situations, and they can affect our job, relationships, and decisions about investments. Larrick (2004) defined three kinds of debiasing. The first type of debiasing interventions is motivational practices such as incentives or accountability. The second type of debiasing interventions involves cognitive methods like considering the opposite method, training or counterfactual priming. The third type of debiasing interventions is modern technologies such as the pros and cons lists or group decision-making. The aim of our study was to investigate the effectiveness of counterfactual priming, as a cognitive intervention, in reducing three cognitive biases: confirmation bias, as the tendency to search for information in line with our assumptions, the status quo bias, as the preference of the current state, and the attribution effect, as the tendency to attribute behaviour based more on personality than on situational context.

MENTAL SIMULATION AS A REMEDY FOR BIASED REASONING

63%

Strachanová D., Valuš L.

Studia Psychologica

2019

vol. 61

issue 2

99 – 109

Prompting mental simulation with a counterfactual scenario has been found to enhance rationality in individuals and groups. Building upon previous findings and the dual-process accounts of reasoning, we hypothesized that de biasing power of mental simulation lies in inhibiting System 1 and facilitating System 2 responses. Therefore, we examined whether counterfactual priming mitigates biased reasoning via changes in cognitive reflection. Each participant of our between-subject experiment (N = 462) solved two out of three tasks on biased reasoning: one before and one after being exposed to the counterfactual scenario. The tasks were designed to elicit selectively seeking hypothesis-confirming evidence, ignoring alternative explanations, and unwillingness to reconsider the default option. In addition, the participants completed two sets of cognitive reflection problems at the beginning and at the end of the experiment. Mental simulation reduced people’s tendencies to ignore alternative explanations and hypothesis-disconfirming evidence, and the latter effect was mediated by intuition inhibition.

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1 Studia Psychologica

1 Človek a spoločnosť. Internetový časopis pre pôvodné teoretické a výskumné štúdie z oblasti spoločenských vied

2 Strachanová D.

1 Valuš L.

2 2019

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DEBIASING EFFECT OF COUNTERFACTUALS

MENTAL SIMULATION AS A REMEDY FOR BIASED REASONING