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EN
This paper investigates the irreversibility of investments and their impact on the nature of the relationship between investment and uncertainty. The empirical analysis uses firm – level data and is based on a survey of 53 automotive suppliers, which was carried out during the year 2011. We find supportive evidence for the fact that uncertainty is negatively associated with planned investments of the companies surveyed, which remains true also in the presence of irreversibility. Yet, further investigation of the investment – uncertainty relationship and the role of irreversibility provide support for the view that the negative association between uncertainty and investment increases with the degree of irreversibility. So the degree of irreversibility of investment does influence the effect uncertainty has on planned investment.
EN
We take an evidence-based approach and confirm that a high level of household debt is detrimental to consumption, disposable income, and hence economic growth in the medium term. Using a panel setting with both fixed and time effects, we isolate the effect of an excessive household debt level and show that an additional one percentage point could be associated with a 0.1% drag on GDP growth over the next three years. Although we confirm this relationship on a panel of advanced economies, we show that emerging economies such as Central and Eastern European economies possess structural characteristics (shallow capital market, less finance and more social cohesion) that so far prevent such a demand constraint from materializing.
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