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Zarządzanie i Finanse
|
2013
|
vol. 2
|
issue 1
321-331
PL
W artykule dokonano analizy wpływu fuzji i przejęć w polskim sektorze bankowym na kształtowanie się poziomu wskaźników ROAA i ROAE w ban-kach komercyjnych, uczestniczących w tych transakcjach. Analizą objęto pięć-dziesiąt jeden transakcji fuzji i przejęć spośród wszystkich tego typu przedsięwzięć, mających miejsce w polskim sektorze bankowym, przeprowadzonych w latach 1992-2009. Uzyskane rezultaty jednoznacznie potwierdzają brak znaczącej poprawy rozpatrywanych wskaźników. Odmienne wyniki badań, w porównaniu z rezultatami uzyskiwanymi na rynkach rozwiniętych, mogą być spowodowane opóźnieniami w integracji banków, wzrostem kosztów wzajemnych transakcji ze spółką-matką, usługami świadczonymi na rzecz akcjona-riuszy strategicznych oraz mogą wynikać z motywów opisanych przez hipotezę menedżerską.
EN
There is significant disproportion between the number of M&As in Polish commercial banking' sector in 1989-2013 and such investments made abroad by banks operating in Poland. Due to the lack of experience of Polish banks in investment banking, they are not considered in the regional terms, what significantly makes expansion on foreign markets more difficult for commercial banks conducting activity in the Polish banking sector.
PL
Artykuł nie zawiera abstraktu w języku polskim
EN
The objective of the paper is to analyse the influence of information about economic and financial problems of strategic shareholders upon the market value of commercial banks operating in the Polish banking sector. The analysis included fourteen such cases from the years 2007-2014. The results clearly indicate that investors consider the foundations of the operation of commercial banks in Poland to be very solid. Problems of strategic shareholders led to only slight depreciation of the banks’ securities quoted at the Warsaw Stock Exchange in the period directly after publication of the information. Investors decided that problems of parent companies were unlikely to threaten the stability of banks operating in the Polish banking sector.
EN
The objective of the paper is to analyse the impact of the Swiss Nati onal Bank’s decision to introduce the floating exchange rate of the franc on January 15th, 2015, upon the market value of commercial banks operatingin the Polish banking sector. The analysis involved twelve commercial banks quoted on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The results are inconclusive. The predicted reducti on of the banks’ market value was less significant than indicated by market investors’ reaction on the day after the announcement of the decision to introduce the floating exchange rate of the franc. The banks most prone to granting credit denominated in CHF did experience the largest reducti on of their share quotations. However, the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient calculated for the correlation between the average cumulative abnormal returns on shares for the entire analysed sample, and the proportion of credits denominated in Swiss francs in the total credit portfolio, indicated only a moderate correlation between both variables.
PL
The objective of the study is to analyse periodicity of mergers and acquisitionsof commercial banks in the Polish banking sector. The research concentrates onbehaviour of strategic investors in this type of investment operations after 1989.The findings of the analysis do not support the thesis about periodicity of mergersand acquisitions in the Polish banking sector. The only element that standsout is the financial crisis caused by subprime credits. There is no doubt that theevents of September and October 2008 are responsible for the complete lack oftransactions in the sector in that year.
EN
Research background: The analysis allows to assess the impact of the industry structure of the credit portfolio on the resistance of commercial banks to the crisis resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. It uses two independent methods to measure the impact of the pandemic on industry risk and the methodology allowing to prioritize industries in terms of potential negative effects of the crisis. Purpose of the article: The aim of the research is to assess the resilience of commercial banks operating in the Polish banking sector to the potential effects caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The diagnostic features of 13 commercial banks were selected for its implementation. Methods: Two linear ordering methods were used, namely the Hellwig method and the TOPSIS method. The following were used as the criteria for parametric assessment of the resilience of commercial banks: capital adequacy, liquidity level, profitability of business activity, share in the portfolio of exposures with recognized impairment and the resilience of the bank's credit portfolio to the risk resulting from the exposure in economic sectors. These sectors were classified according to the level of risk associated with the effects of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings & Value added: The study allows to conclude that the largest banks conducting their operations in Poland are the most resistant ones to the consequences of the pandemic. At the same time, the banks most vulnerable due to the crisis were identified. The conclusions can be used, inter alia, in the process of managing the financial system stability risk and contribute to the discussion on the impact of the pandemic on the condition of commercial banks in emerging markets.
EN
The aim of the paper is to assess the condition of commercial banks listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange after the first three months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland. The consolidated results for Q1 and Q2 2020 were used focusing on selected evaluation areas such as: capital adequacy, profitability, liquidity, credit portfolio quality as well as operational efficiency. The authors concluded that as a result of the credit crunch and the retention of previously earned profits, almost every medium (except for mBank SA) and every large bank experienced an increase in capital adequacy ratios. Moreover, the profitability of the banking sector eroded in each group of banks, with the rule that ROE is higher in the group of medium and large banks compared to the small ones. With the exception of Idea Bank SA all banks during the pandemic experienced an improvement in liquidity ratios. There was reported an increase in the cost of risk, with the greatest augmentation in small banks. It is maintained that the larger the bank the lower cost of risk. In almost every institution, the risk is mitigated by an increase in the degree of coverage by provisions for impaired receivables. In small banks there was noticed a deterioration in operational efficiency. In medium and large banks, despite a sharp drop in profits and additional costs associated with the pandemic, the process of efficiency improvement was reinforced.
EN
One of the first reactions to the lockdown caused by the proliferation of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was a debt service moratorium. As the analysis carried out in this paper shows, credit holiday conditions varied considerably from one European country to another, and some of them did not opt for this form of support at all. The differences concerned primarily the period of suspension of debt service, the spectrum of eligible borrowers and the manner of implementation of the instrument (by law or as a result of an agreement between banks). In this paper, which presents in more detail the programme implemented in Poland, the authors have attempted to answer the following research questions: • In addition to the immediate benefits of debt deferral to borrowers and the economy are there potential negative consequences of credit moratoriums for both the banking sector and borrowers? • Do credit holidays, which are a form of debt restructuring, fall within the definition of forbearance and therefore generate negative effects for banks, if only in the form of having to report a deterioration in the quality of the portfolio? As far as the authors’ know, this is the first synthetic study constituting a kind of comparative analysis of the credit holiday support instruments used in selected European countries (not counting presentations made by consulting companies).
PL
Jedną z pierwszych reakcji na lockdown spowodowany rozprzestrzenianiem się wirusa SARS-CoV-2 były moratoria na obsługę zadłużenia. Jak pokazuje analiza przeprowadzona w niniejszym artykule, warunki wakacji kredytowych w poszczególnych państwach europejskich istotnie różniły się, a w niektórych z nich w ogóle nie zdecydowano się na tę formę wsparcia. Różnice dotyczyły przede wszystkim okresu zawieszenia obsługi długu, spektrum uprawnionych kredytobiorców oraz sposobu wdrażania instrumentu (w drodze ustawy lub jako efekt porozumienia pomiędzy bankami). W niniejszym artykule, w którym bardziej szczegółowo przedstawiono formułę wdrożoną w Polsce, autorzy podjęli próbę odpowiedzi na następujące pytania badawcze:  − Czy oprócz doraźnych korzyści dla kredytobiorców i gospodarki z tytułu odroczenia obsługi długu istnieją potencjalne negatywne konsekwencje wakacji kredytowych, zarówno dla sektora bankowego, jak i kredytobiorców? − Czy wakacje kredytowe, będące formą restrukturyzacji zadłużenia, mieszczą się w definicji forbearance i w związku z tym generują dla banków negatywne skutki, choćby w postaci konieczności przedstawienia w sprawozdawczości faktu pogorszenia jakości portfela? Według wiedzy autorów jest to pierwsze syntetyczne opracowanie stanowiące swego rodzaju analizę komparatywną instrumentów wsparcia w postaci wakacji kredytowych, które zastosowano w wybranych państwach europejskich (nie licząc prezentacji dokonywanych przez firmy consultingowe).
PL
Celem niniejszego artykułu jest weryfikacja hipotezy o pozytywnym wpływie deklarowanych przez banki w Polsce zmian polityki kredytowej na transformację energetyczną poprzez ograniczanie w sensie absolutnym ekspozycji wobec węglowych koncernów energetycznych. W artykule wykorzystano metodę symulacji okresu zwrotu finansowania dłużnego, wzbogaconą o analizę scenariuszową. Analiza okresu zwrotu oprocentowanych zobowiązań wskazuje na horyzont, który nie przekroczy 7 lat, licząc od końca 2020 roku. Jest to zbieżne z deklaracjami banków odnośnie do terminu zaprzestania finansowania energetyki węglowej, stanie się to jednak pod warunkiem znaczącego ograniczenia przez koncerny energetyczne wydatków inwestycyjnych na ten cel (właściwie do poziomu nakładów odtworzeniowych). Ten scenariusz wyklucza jednakże de facto transformację tych koncernów w kierunku stania się producentami energii pochodzącej z wielu źródeł i systematycznego wzrostu udziału energii odnawialnej.
EN
The aim of this paper was to verify the hypothesis regarding the positive impact of the changes in credit policies declared by banks in Poland on energy transition by limiting in an absolute sense the exposures to coal-based energy companies. The paper uses a simulation method for the payback period of debt financing, enhanced by scenario analysis. The analysis of the payback period of the interest-bearing liabilities indicates a horizon that will not exceed seven years from the end of 2020. This is consistent with the banks' declarations as to when they will stop financing coal-fired power generation, but this will happen on condition that the energy companies significantly reduce their capital expenditure (actually to the level of replacement expenditure). This scenario, however, rules out a transformation of these concerns to become producers of energy from a broad spectrum of sources, and a systematic increase in the share of renewable energy.
EN
Theoretical background: Bank tax was introduced in Poland in February 2016. As a consequence, several banks with assets surpassing certain value need to cope with the additional burden.Purpose of the article: The aim of the research is to verify whether Polish banks that nominally are subject to the bank tax indeed shifted onto their clients most of the cost connected with this new levy and, thus, now these are the clients who effectively bear the burden of bank tax.Research methods: The analysis is based on monthly data for the years 2010–2021, for which a multilayer comparison of performance of banks subject to the bank tax was made from various perspectives: (1) before and after the introduction of bank tax and (2) with remaining banks not subject to a bank tax – which serve as a control sample. The analysis took into account the composition of Polish bank sector, while focusing on the development of: (1) revenues, costs and income from commissions and charges, (2) revenues and income from interest, (3) level of commissions and charges as well as interest imposed on different bank products, (4) banks profitability, (5) their balance sheet total and (6) ROA.Main findings: The analysis does not confirm increases in revenues of commercial banks and foreign branches following the introduction of the bank levy, whereas the profitability and ROA of these banks worsened significantly. At the same time, the performance of banks not affected by the levy did not deteriorate, which allows to conclude that banks did not manage to shift the cost of bank tax onto their customers. Conclusions are important primarily from the perspective of fiscal policy (they answer the question on effective tax incidence) and supervisory policy (to what extent the introduction of the tax erodes the performance of the banking sector, inhibiting the accumulation of capital determining the level of financial stability).
EN
Research background: The paper focuses on the research of investors' decisions with regard to shares of all 12 banks listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange during the first half of 2020. It examines the behavior of a subindex reflecting bank shares' prices against the main WIG index WIG and 14 sector subindices. The authors identify groups of banks with different investors? responses. They also classify banks into separate groups on the basis of changes in the fundamental indicators describing their economic and financial performance. The study concentrates mainly on the verification of the stability of this attribution, explaining reasons for its modifications over time.    Purpose of the article: To identify the characteristics of bank clusters determining different capital market responses to their listed shares and to explain the reasons for volatility in investors' behavior within the analyzed period. Methods: The methodology of the research can be described in three areas. The first is the statistical analysis with the emphasis on the use of a quarter range to capture changes in the volatility of share prices. The second area is the clustering k-means method based on the interpolated - from quarterly to daily - measures of the bank's financial condition. This mathematical approach is a novelty in finance and economics. The last, third, area is forecasting with the use of linear regression analysis, which is the key factor in determining the abnormal rates of return. The indicated areas are combined through a generally understood correlation analysis. Findings & value added: Large retail banks have been less affected compared to medium-sized ones with relatively rich corporate portfolios. The initial market reaction reflected concern about the resistance to the crisis of poorly capitalized banks with mean liquidity buffers. Upon the announcement of government support, investors' approach to the shares of banks of differentiated economic and financial performance conformed accordingly. These findings are valuable in the long term especially from the perspective of supervision authorities' policy during external shocks. The presented study suggests designing flexible and tailor-made regulatory approach aligned with the defined bank clusters. Its value added also consists in proposing a new method of analysis, combining interpolation and automatic clustering, which has proved to be adequate for the study of a bank's financial condition based on daily frequency data. Furthermore, assuming the same length of the estimation window, a close relationship is shown between the results of clustering and the forecasts based on different measures of rates of return.
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