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EN
Since 2000, the intensive debate on the future of the European integration has started again. The beginning of the current debate was the Constitutional Treaty, which did not come to force. The idea of creating a federal organization collapsed. The future model of integration is still an open question. On the other hand,the economic crisis of the world economy, started in 2008, which influenced the EU very strongly, rises aquestionwhether the European Union is able to face internal and external crisis. The possible scenariosfor the European Union in the years to come can be very different. The main objective of the paper is toanalyze the current model of the European integration, which consists of very many federal model’s elements but is still far away from federation. The influence of the treaties on the hybrid model of integration is discussed in the paper. There are three possible scenarios for the future of the EU presented in this paper.
PL
Artykuł nie zawiera abstraktu w języku polskim.
PL
Liczba nielegalnych imigrantów napływających do Unii Europejskiej od kilku lat gwałtownie wzrasta. Stosunek władz państw członkowskich UE i obywateli tych państw do napływu nielegalnych imigrantów wykazuje znaczne zróżnicowanie. W artykule podjęto próbę wyjaśnienia przyczyn występowania różnic w podejściu do problemu napływu imigrantów w państwach członkowskich Unii Europejskiej. Pod uwagę wzięto kilka wybranych kryteriów ilościowych. Przeanalizowano prognozy demograficzne do 2080 r. oraz zaproponowano dwa wskaźniki: wskaźnik obciążenia imigracyjnego (WOI) oraz wskaźnik obciążenia gospodarek napływem imigrantów (WOG), które mają wyjaśniać stosunek do napływu obcej ludności. Z przeprowadzonych rozważań wynika, że przyczyn pozytywnego nastawienia lub niechęci wobec napływu imigrantów do państw członkowskich Unii Europejskiej nie da się wyjaśnić, stosując tylko wskaźniki ilościowe.
EN
The influx of illegal immigration to the European Union has grown rapidly over the past few years. Member States’ official stances and policies differ considerably as to whether to accept or reject refugees and illegal immigrants. Using a quantitative analysis, the article examines the causes of the different approaches to immigration to the EU Member States. It provides a general overview of the demographic forecasts until 2080 and suggests two new indicators to explain the acceptance (or rejection) of foreigners. It follows from the considerations that quantitative indicators are insufficient in determining whether to have a positive or negative position with regard to accepting immigrants to EU Member States.
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